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The Al-Saud succession challenge
The Saudi royal family now faces the task of lining up a second generation of princes as potential heirs.
The motto of Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Nayef bin Abdulaziz al-Saud and de facto ruler since 2009, was reportedly "no to change, yes to development". With nearly four decades of influence over Saudi politics, his death on 16 June raises speculation whether the attitude towards reform will change and whether the pace of reform will also accelerate.
Prince's Nayef's motto will prove pervasive though. The next line of leaders in the kingdom, who are all brothers of Prince Nayef, are likely to demonstrate similar conservatism and pragmatism. The more significant question raised by his death is how the power transition to the grandsons of Saudi Arabia's founder, rather than the sons, will be handled and what impact this will have on the pace of reform.
King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz al-Saud acted quickly to replace Prince Nayef, appointing Prince Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud, a half-brother, to replace him as crown prince, and another brother, Prince Ahmed bin Abdulaziz al-Saud, to take over as interior minister.
Sudairi seven
Princes Salman and Ahmed are sons of Saudi Arabia's founder, King Abdulaziz al-Saud, and both are sons of his favourite wife Hassa bint Ahmed al-Sudairi. The seven sons of this marriage, known as the Sudairi seven, have been some of the most influential figures in Saudi politics, and Prince Ahmed is the group's youngest member, at 71.
In reality, neither will be able to fill Prince Nayef's shoes immediately. After becoming second deputy prime minister in 2009, he had taken on increasing responsibility for both domestic and foreign policy, becoming de facto ruler as a result of the poor health of the king and then Crown Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz al-Saud.
Following the outbreak of the Arab uprisings, Prince Nayef's influence grew stronger. Already responsible for the domestic crackdown on Islamist terror group Al-Qaeda in the wake of the attacks on the US in September 2001, Prince Nayef showed increased hawkishness in his handling of political protests around the region over the past 18 months, and in dealings with Iran.
Prince Nayef had also managed to combine a close relationship with the religious establishment with a pragmatism evidenced in issuing Saudi women with identity cards for the first time, no longer requiring them to be simply registered under their father or husband.
The need to balance the interests of clerics and liberals has long been an obstacle to reform in the country. The death of Prince Nayef is perceived as a loss for the clerical establishment, but in reality, the influence of conservatives stretches beyond having the ear of just one man.
"It is premature to think that the role of the religious establishment will be downgraded significantly in the immediate future," says Raza Agha, senior economist at the UK's Royal Bank of Scotland. "Their links into the power circles in Saudi Arabia are deeper than just one individual."
On foreign policy, both Princes Salman and Ahmed are expected to continue a hawkish stance towards Iran, echoed also by King Abdullah. They fear Iranian influence in stirring up the protest movement in Bahrain, which also inspires their own restive Shia population. Support for regional monarchies such as Jordan and Bahrain will continue. Suspicion of Syria, Lebanon and Iraq will remain, where sectarianism is again viewed through the prism of Iranian influence.
Next generation
If neither Prince Salman nor Prince Ahmed, both in their 70s, will produce a significant change in Saudi Arabia's glacial reform process, it will be left to the next generation to pick up the mantle.
The elevation of Prince Salman has been widely expected since the death of Prince Sultan in late 2011.
What is less clear now is who, if anyone, will be appointed second deputy prime minister, the role traditionally seen as the crown prince-in-waiting. If it is Prince Ahmed, then the third generation of descendants from King Abdulaziz will have a few more years to position themselves for the role.
Key among this generation will be the sons of King Abdullah, Prince Nayef and Prince Salman. All three have sons with experience at senior positions in key institutions. King Abdullah's son Prince Mutaib bin Abdullah was appointed head of the National Guard in late 2010, a move seen as preparing him for taking on more responsibility in the future.
Prince Nayef installed his son Prince Mohammed bin Nayef as deputy interior minister. Although he was not given control of the ministry following his father's death, he has a good reputation and was appointed by King Abdullah to the Supreme Economic Council in 2009, extending his influence over government policy. Like his father, he advocates an iron-fist response to terrorism and a belief that stability should not be risked in the aim of reform. Prince Salman's son Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman has been deputy minister of petroleum and mineral resources since 1995.
The three are considered to be the strongest candidates to take on senior roles as the kingdom prepares for its first vertical handover of power, rather than a horizontal transition between the sons of King Abdulaziz. King Abdullah established the Allegiance Council in 2006, a body made up of senior royals that was intended to appoint future successors. Sources in Saudi Arabia say the council so far seems to have been merely rubber-stamping King Abdullah's nominations for crown prince. In the future, it will be expected to take a more significant role in actually debating the merits of potential future kings.
Whoever ends up in charge will be taking on responsibilities in a challenging period in the region. The case for development in Saudi Arabia is well known. Women are still banned from driving and voting, and only participate in the work force to a limited degree.
The country also desperately needs to create jobs for its largely young and growing population. The median age is about 22 and youth unemployment is estimated at more than 25 per cent. The pressure to push through reform will be enormous, exacerbated by the restive Shia population in the Eastern Province and protests around the region.
So far the government's solution to the problem has largely been to throw money at it. In 2011, King Abdullah announced a package worth $125bn, including higher wages for the public sector, housing subsidies, unemployment benefits and money to write off debts. The hope was that this would help alleviate social pressures that were rising as unrest swept the region and activists began sowing the seeds of protest in the kingdom.
Future strategy
Changing strategy will be difficult, but necessary. Higher spending is putting pressure on the kingdom's budget. The IMF says Saudi Arabia needs the oil price to be above $80 a barrel to balance its budget. If spending continues to rise and domestic consumption of oil grows, the gap between the point at which Saudi Arabia balances its budget or falls into a deficit will narrow further.
Tackling this, while avoiding any reforms that threaten stability will be a difficult balancing act. All three of the main candidates in the next generation will be keenly aware of this. While the temptation will be to favour incremental development over sudden change, if reforms are not accelerated, then stability is not guaranteed.
boxout
The Allegiance Council
The Allegiance Council was established in October 2006 in order to formalise succession in Saudi Arabia and ensure a smooth transfer of power within the ruling House of Saud.
The council comprises about 30 members, who are all sons and grandsons of the kindom's founder King Abdulaziz.
Under the system, the king nominates a crown prince and then the commission votes on the candidate. Previously, it was the king's own decision. It was originally anticipated the Allegiance Council would not begin to play a role in the politics of succession until Crown Prince Sultan was king. He and subsequently Prince Nayef have now predeceased King Abdullah and it is unclear given the opaque nature of Saudi politics to what extent the Allegiance Council was involved in selection of their successors.
The Allegiance Council was one of King Abdullah's key reforms, intended to bring an end to squabbling among the 37 sons of Saudi Arabia's founder and make the process of choosing an heir to the throne more transparent and representative of all branches of the family.
Prince Talal bin Abdulaziz, half-brother of King Abdullah resigned from the council in November in protest at the appointment of Prince Nayef as crown prince. He has since called the council ineffective, highlighting rifts within the ruling family.
The Al-Saud succession challenge | Middle East News | AMEinfo.com
----------------
If you see the link in the address bar it will show; balance-clerics-liberals-obstacle-reform-country.
The Al-Saud succession challenge
The Saudi royal family now faces the task of lining up a second generation of princes as potential heirs.
The motto of Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Nayef bin Abdulaziz al-Saud and de facto ruler since 2009, was reportedly "no to change, yes to development". With nearly four decades of influence over Saudi politics, his death on 16 June raises speculation whether the attitude towards reform will change and whether the pace of reform will also accelerate.
Prince's Nayef's motto will prove pervasive though. The next line of leaders in the kingdom, who are all brothers of Prince Nayef, are likely to demonstrate similar conservatism and pragmatism. The more significant question raised by his death is how the power transition to the grandsons of Saudi Arabia's founder, rather than the sons, will be handled and what impact this will have on the pace of reform.
King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz al-Saud acted quickly to replace Prince Nayef, appointing Prince Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud, a half-brother, to replace him as crown prince, and another brother, Prince Ahmed bin Abdulaziz al-Saud, to take over as interior minister.
Sudairi seven
Princes Salman and Ahmed are sons of Saudi Arabia's founder, King Abdulaziz al-Saud, and both are sons of his favourite wife Hassa bint Ahmed al-Sudairi. The seven sons of this marriage, known as the Sudairi seven, have been some of the most influential figures in Saudi politics, and Prince Ahmed is the group's youngest member, at 71.
In reality, neither will be able to fill Prince Nayef's shoes immediately. After becoming second deputy prime minister in 2009, he had taken on increasing responsibility for both domestic and foreign policy, becoming de facto ruler as a result of the poor health of the king and then Crown Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz al-Saud.
Following the outbreak of the Arab uprisings, Prince Nayef's influence grew stronger. Already responsible for the domestic crackdown on Islamist terror group Al-Qaeda in the wake of the attacks on the US in September 2001, Prince Nayef showed increased hawkishness in his handling of political protests around the region over the past 18 months, and in dealings with Iran.
Prince Nayef had also managed to combine a close relationship with the religious establishment with a pragmatism evidenced in issuing Saudi women with identity cards for the first time, no longer requiring them to be simply registered under their father or husband.
The need to balance the interests of clerics and liberals has long been an obstacle to reform in the country. The death of Prince Nayef is perceived as a loss for the clerical establishment, but in reality, the influence of conservatives stretches beyond having the ear of just one man.
"It is premature to think that the role of the religious establishment will be downgraded significantly in the immediate future," says Raza Agha, senior economist at the UK's Royal Bank of Scotland. "Their links into the power circles in Saudi Arabia are deeper than just one individual."
On foreign policy, both Princes Salman and Ahmed are expected to continue a hawkish stance towards Iran, echoed also by King Abdullah. They fear Iranian influence in stirring up the protest movement in Bahrain, which also inspires their own restive Shia population. Support for regional monarchies such as Jordan and Bahrain will continue. Suspicion of Syria, Lebanon and Iraq will remain, where sectarianism is again viewed through the prism of Iranian influence.
Next generation
If neither Prince Salman nor Prince Ahmed, both in their 70s, will produce a significant change in Saudi Arabia's glacial reform process, it will be left to the next generation to pick up the mantle.
The elevation of Prince Salman has been widely expected since the death of Prince Sultan in late 2011.
What is less clear now is who, if anyone, will be appointed second deputy prime minister, the role traditionally seen as the crown prince-in-waiting. If it is Prince Ahmed, then the third generation of descendants from King Abdulaziz will have a few more years to position themselves for the role.
Key among this generation will be the sons of King Abdullah, Prince Nayef and Prince Salman. All three have sons with experience at senior positions in key institutions. King Abdullah's son Prince Mutaib bin Abdullah was appointed head of the National Guard in late 2010, a move seen as preparing him for taking on more responsibility in the future.
Prince Nayef installed his son Prince Mohammed bin Nayef as deputy interior minister. Although he was not given control of the ministry following his father's death, he has a good reputation and was appointed by King Abdullah to the Supreme Economic Council in 2009, extending his influence over government policy. Like his father, he advocates an iron-fist response to terrorism and a belief that stability should not be risked in the aim of reform. Prince Salman's son Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman has been deputy minister of petroleum and mineral resources since 1995.
The three are considered to be the strongest candidates to take on senior roles as the kingdom prepares for its first vertical handover of power, rather than a horizontal transition between the sons of King Abdulaziz. King Abdullah established the Allegiance Council in 2006, a body made up of senior royals that was intended to appoint future successors. Sources in Saudi Arabia say the council so far seems to have been merely rubber-stamping King Abdullah's nominations for crown prince. In the future, it will be expected to take a more significant role in actually debating the merits of potential future kings.
Whoever ends up in charge will be taking on responsibilities in a challenging period in the region. The case for development in Saudi Arabia is well known. Women are still banned from driving and voting, and only participate in the work force to a limited degree.
The country also desperately needs to create jobs for its largely young and growing population. The median age is about 22 and youth unemployment is estimated at more than 25 per cent. The pressure to push through reform will be enormous, exacerbated by the restive Shia population in the Eastern Province and protests around the region.
So far the government's solution to the problem has largely been to throw money at it. In 2011, King Abdullah announced a package worth $125bn, including higher wages for the public sector, housing subsidies, unemployment benefits and money to write off debts. The hope was that this would help alleviate social pressures that were rising as unrest swept the region and activists began sowing the seeds of protest in the kingdom.
Future strategy
Changing strategy will be difficult, but necessary. Higher spending is putting pressure on the kingdom's budget. The IMF says Saudi Arabia needs the oil price to be above $80 a barrel to balance its budget. If spending continues to rise and domestic consumption of oil grows, the gap between the point at which Saudi Arabia balances its budget or falls into a deficit will narrow further.
Tackling this, while avoiding any reforms that threaten stability will be a difficult balancing act. All three of the main candidates in the next generation will be keenly aware of this. While the temptation will be to favour incremental development over sudden change, if reforms are not accelerated, then stability is not guaranteed.
boxout
The Allegiance Council
The Allegiance Council was established in October 2006 in order to formalise succession in Saudi Arabia and ensure a smooth transfer of power within the ruling House of Saud.
The council comprises about 30 members, who are all sons and grandsons of the kindom's founder King Abdulaziz.
Under the system, the king nominates a crown prince and then the commission votes on the candidate. Previously, it was the king's own decision. It was originally anticipated the Allegiance Council would not begin to play a role in the politics of succession until Crown Prince Sultan was king. He and subsequently Prince Nayef have now predeceased King Abdullah and it is unclear given the opaque nature of Saudi politics to what extent the Allegiance Council was involved in selection of their successors.
The Allegiance Council was one of King Abdullah's key reforms, intended to bring an end to squabbling among the 37 sons of Saudi Arabia's founder and make the process of choosing an heir to the throne more transparent and representative of all branches of the family.
Prince Talal bin Abdulaziz, half-brother of King Abdullah resigned from the council in November in protest at the appointment of Prince Nayef as crown prince. He has since called the council ineffective, highlighting rifts within the ruling family.
The Al-Saud succession challenge | Middle East News | AMEinfo.com
----------------
If you see the link in the address bar it will show; balance-clerics-liberals-obstacle-reform-country.
