The Afghan endgame, & the potential players

[lem34]

How convenient of you to quote Times of India when it suits you and berate it otherwise!

(and yet you accuse others of hypocrisy! )

US involvement in Pakistan's program goes back a long ways, Sir, and still carries on.

Complete 911 Timeline: A. Q. Khan, Pakistani Nukes, and Islamic Militancy

Journalist Seymour Hersh will comment, “The certification process became farcical in the last years of the Reagan Administration, whose yearly certification—despite explicit American intelligence about Pakistan’s nuclear-weapons program—was seen as little more than a payoff to the Pakistani leadership for its support in Afghanistan

It was not as you stated earlier because america wanted deterrence between india and pakistan

 

[VCheng]

Complete 911 Timeline: A. Q. Khan, Pakistani Nukes, and Islamic Militancy

Journalist Seymour Hersh will comment, “The certification process became farcical in the last years of the Reagan Administration, whose yearly certification—despite explicit American intelligence about Pakistan’s nuclear-weapons program—was seen as little more than a payoff to the Pakistani leadership for its support in Afghanistan

It was not as you stated earlier because america wanted deterrence between india and pakistan

That certification process was merely a legal maneuver for Congress; I am referring to actual field operations. There is a world of difference between the two Sir.

 

[anonymus]

It will be Pakistan that triumphs again. This is the reason for the frustration from the Yanks, Indians and Tajiks. Pakistan hasn't been playing the game since the 80's to lose influence so easily.

It Makes me wonder as to why fate of pakistan could be seen as parallel to that of Till Lindermann in Rosenrot.

Rammstein - Rosenrot - YouTube

 

[All-Green]

Indians don't have a problem with Pakistan's influence in Afghanistan, but Pakistanis have a huge issue with India's.

We all can observe and make up our minds, no matter how much the broken record keeps playing.

With BLA there is a huge genuine concern and likewise from Indian POV there are flashpoints as well, but i am hopeful that in the bigger picture (if seen logically), it suits both India and Pakistan to work together in order to reap benefit of regional trade.
Otherwise this region is doomed despite having the resources/potential to beat Europe.

Let us hope that India, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iran establish better terms for trade and business.
Co dependency shall make them less bitter and eventually the enmity shall be withered away.

The issues can and should be solved in parallel...clock is ticking and we have wasted decades already.

 

[foxbat]

Does anyone know what the capacity of Gwadar port is at this time??

Anyone ???

 

[Khorasanian]

Do you really believe in that? Once Afghanistan is devided into north-south, you have to ask the savage tribes if you can enter their territory and I don´t think that Tajiks will allow Pakistan to use their country for their economy if they keep playing the enemy. Afghanistans current situation, a pro-Pakistan situation, is bounded on the current government in Kabul and honestly, this gov won´t remain longer than 2014. Change will come but not in a positive way for Pakistan.

 

[Khorasanian]

RazPak, unfortunately you haven't got the gist of Bilal's very well analyzed post. You love shooting from the hip just for the heck of increasing your post count.

Now coming down to brass tacks. How do you say that "Pakistan trumps again"? In what way? Do you have even the faintest clue as to the players who are going to jump into the ring once the Americans depart? They are all waiting like voracious vultures to get a piece of the cake. These include the Northern Alliance consisting mainly of the Tajiks, Pashtuns, Hazaras, Uzbeks, Turkmen and others, and Russia, China, Iran, Pakistan, India, the CIS Republics and the US of A.

There is a distinct possibility of Afghanistan being divided with Bamian as the capital of Northern Afghanistan under the Alliance (which is anti Taliban) and Kabul the capital of Southern Afghanistan under the Taliban. Now in all this, there would be jockeying for influence by the countries mentioned above. Iran would be a major player in this game as 20% of Afghanistan's population consists of Shias which Iran would use as a proxy for furthering its interests by the use of militancy or otherwise.

Having a 'friendly' Taliban at the helm in Kabul would perhaps also suit Pakistan to some extent where the security of its Western border is concerned. However, its plans to have a stake in the energy pie in Afghanistan and the CIS Republics may run into rough weather.

Another thing to note is that the US of A will not be leaving a vacuum in Afghanistan. The Pentagon has planned to keep a minimum force of 30,000 troops permanently stationed there. Where Pakistan is concerned, this is what Admiral Mike Mullen, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff had said:

"In choosing to use violent extremism as an instrument of policy, the government of Pakistan, and most especially the Pakistani army and ISI, jeopardizes not only the prospect of our strategic partnership but Pakistan's opportunity to be a respected nation with legitimate regional influence. They may believe that by using these proxies, they are hedging their bets or redressing what they feel is an imbalance in regional power. But in reality, they have already lost that bet."

Well, though I do not agree with him fully, but there is an element of truth in what he says.

Kabul is a Tajik province and de facto ruled by 60 000 militia men of Marshal Fahim, including the ANA and ANP, plus the ISAF troops. Don´t grip your infos out of your back. There won´t be any Pashtun province outside Kandahar, Uruzgan, Paktia, Paktika, Khost and Nangarhar...and some parts of Helmand, since the western parts including the capital is dominated by Tajiks.

 

[Khorasanian]

I've been a member since 2010, and I don't care about post counts, thanks or any of that crap.

What you mentioned maybe true, but Uzbeks, Turkmens? LOL.

They said Iraq was going to be carved out due to religious and ethnic differences, but it is still in one piece today. The Russians know they have no influence without Pakistan's backing, same as the US knew.

Another point is that Afghanistan cannot and will not be separated simply for the fact that it's bread and basket is in Pakistan. Any further divisions would only further weaken an already weak country. Afghanistan relies on Pakistan for most things and just because India can gain access in a round about way won't change their dependecy.


I simply tell it like it is. No need to accuse me of anything. You typed all that and I can bet that most of your assumptions will turn out to be false.

At best we can agree to disagree.

According to whom and why? Do you have any sources? All the gas fields, oil, gold, and and and are can be find under Tajik *****. Tajiks already have the most power in Afghanistan. We have nothing to lose..only Pashtuns, the northern corridor and the gate to food and water. We don´t care about them. Already a new wave of Pashtun exodus has started in the north toward south and Pakistan. The same can be said about the south whre Pashtuns leave the regions for Pakistan because the war. Non-Pashtuns have nothing to lose. In fact, an independent state of non-Pashtuns or a unified Tajik nation will boost Tajik power and role in the region more than 100%. Beside all those minerals, we also host 1/25 of the world drink-water. A new market for people who live in deserts.