From visits and high level contacts reported in the media but rarely discussed by either governments, one can identify certain broad areas of security-related cooperation. They revolve around India's ambitious attempts to design, develop and produce major platforms. India is pursuing a number of special projects and has made significant progress in some of them. Western concerns over and determination to prevent exports of dual-use technologies and the Soviet Union's disintegration have exacerbated the importance of indigenous technological progress. India shares the view that Western concerns over non-proliferation is often a camouflage for sound commercial considerations.(12)
Defense-related research in India is conducted by the DRDO, which comprises of 50 laboratories and establishments spread across the country.(13) The approximate Indian equivalent of Israel's Rafael, it is involved in design and development activities "in a variety of disciplines such as aeronautics, armaments, combat vehicles, naval technology, rockets and missiles, computer sciences, electronics and instrumentation (including communication, radars and electronic warfare), artificial intelligence, robotics, engineering, terrain research, explosives safety, materials (metallic, non-metallic and composite), life sciences (including high altitude agriculture, high altitude and desert physiology, and food), nuclear medicine, psychology, camouflage, avalanche forecast and control, work study, systems analysis, training and information systems" (14) As a result the DRDO would be in the forefront of any security partnership between India and Israel.
A. Light Combat Aircraft
Developing a light combat aircraft (LCA) remains the most ambitious military program currently undertaken by the DRDO. The need for a new fighter aircraft cannot be overstated. As a middle- sized air power,, the desire to keep its defense requirements free from external pressures encouraged India to pursue the LCA option. With sufficient domestic market it need not depend on exports to economize the cost of production. For instance India currently has over 300 MiG-21s (including the 125 slated for upgrading) which would have to be replaced within a decade. In the post-Cold War era the cost of replacing these and other aging fleets with imports without generously low prices, has become prohibitive.(15)
With the declared intention of replacing the license-built Ajeet (British Gnat Mark I) and MiG-21 fighters by 1991, the DRDO launched the LCA program in 1983.(16) The launching coincided with India's eagerness to seek non-Soviet options for its military needs and to gradually reduce its dependence on Moscow for military supplies. Though not as acute as Israel's, lndia's dependence on a single supplier has been enormous and in certain key areas almost total. (17) The LCA has been projected as the most cost-effective and relatively inexpensive alternative for the air force in the early part of the next century. (18) The first technology demonstrator rolled out on 17 November 1995 and the first flight test is re-scheduled for late 1998 with steps having been taken "to accelerate pace of development, fabrication, flight testing and flight clearance leading to induction of LCA into the Indian Air Force by the year 2003."(19)
From the beginning, like many other projects, the LCA program has been plagued by technological and financial constraints. Having opted for technological independence, the DRDO found itself to be dependent on foreign technology for the LCA. According to some estimates as much as 70 percent of the LCA components are imported.(20) Delays in production schedule not only escalate costs but also add to the technological obsolescence of the finished product. If the present time table of 2005 is maintained there would be a time gap of 23 years since the project was conceived. The air force's preference for a modern aircraft over a local product modeled on earlier versions, partly contributed to the slow progress. India's decision to purchase multi-role combat aircraft from Russia in the wake of the Hank Brown amendment that enabled Pakistan acquire advanced weapons and platforms from the US, has put further pressures on the resources available for LCA. (21)
In numerous ways the difficulties confronting the LCA are not different from the hurdles that Israel endured in pursuing and eventually abandoning the Lavi project.(22) Doubts have been raised both inside and outside India over the wisdom of developing a complete system as important as a fighter aircraft. The government's inability to find regular and continuous funding has slowed down the project and even before the first test flight, the LCA project has cost about $600 million and has come under severe criticisms from the parliamentarians.(23)
Israeli experience would be particularly useful in areas such as avionics, airframes and incorporating engine and weapons into the airframe. A substantial portion of technologies developed during the Lavi phase is owned by Israel and can be easily exported to or shared with India.
B. Aircraft Upgrading
Upgrading the aging air force is linked to the LCA as India still would have to wait for nearly a decade before acquiring the first batch of LCA. Acquiring new aircraft would be costlier and such a move would further reduce the budget for LCA. As a result India signed a $400 million contract with Moscow for upgrading 125 MiG-21s and prolonging their life-span by 15 years. Although Israel lost the main MiG-21 BIS contract to the Russians, the upgrading market in India is still large and would involve at least over 100 later versions of the MiGs before the arrival of first LCA.
C. Missiles and Satellites
Launched in 1983, the Integrated Guided Missile Development Program is another ambitious yet relatively successful defense program currently being undertaken by the Indian defense establishment.(24) The program involves designing, development and production of five missile systems: Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile (IRBM) Agni, battlefield support surface-to-surface missile Prithvi, short range surface-to-air missile Trishul, medium-range surface-to-air missile Akash and anti-tank missile Nag. (25)
The first stage of Agni is based on India's successes in satellite launching and the second stage is "a shortened Prithvi stage, modified for high-attitude operations." (26) Since its inaugural launch in May 1989, Agni had completed three successful test flights and following pressures from the United States the Indian government appeared to have quietly stopped the program. No Agni tests have been conducted since 1994. Adopting a missile-in-the-basement posture, Indian leaders noted that if a political decision were to be taken, Agni could be made operational within two years.
For its part, Israel has an impressive arsenal of indigenous missiles, including the ship-to-ship Gabriel, air-to-air Python, air-to-surface Popeye, and the surface-to-surface Jericho-I and IRBM Jericho-11. (27) They were developed and some even deployed before India began its guided missile development program in the early 1980s and hence they are more advanced and battle-tested.
For quite some time there were suggestions in Israel's media that foreign countries have expressed interest in purchasing Arrow missile technologies, and countries such as Japan, Taiwan, Turkey, South Korea and even UK were mentioned as potential clients. As a project substantially funded by the United States, such a move would not be easy and, in May 1996, Head of the Arrow Project in the Ministry of Defense Uzi Rubin disclosed that Israel and the United States had signed an agreement arranging "division of rights" on Arrow project.
This move is aimed at avoiding controversies that Israel had illegally and without authorization sold or transferred American technology to third parties such as China. In February 1997 the Indian media suggested that India was negotiating with Israel to purchase components and technology of Arrow and the issue was believed to have been discussed during the visit of a senior Ministry of Defense official earlier in the month.
The issue of UAVs and RPVs is closely related to the missile program. The DRDO began work on a pilotless target vehicle, Lakshya. Following launch trials in 1983, it is currently undergoing limited series production. Another aeronautical venture, Nishant RPV, made its first test flight in 1995 and was scheduled to be inducted into the army by late 1996/97.(28) However, production delays and technical snags led the army to look to Israeli-built Searchers to compensate for the delays. It is essential to remember that while Israel has been using and exporting UAVs/RPVs since 1982, India is a late entrant in the field.
If Israel has more experience and expertise in missiles and RPVS, India enjoys lead-time in space technology.(29) Established in the early 1950s, the Indian Space Research Organization has been primarily concerned with the civilian space program. The use of space technology for military purposes has been a recent phenomenon and the Agni missile is based on a successful civilian satellite launch vehicles.
D. Main Battle Tank (MBT)
For over two decades the DRDO has sought to design, develop and produce the Arjun battle tank. The design phase, completed in 1996, was 11 years behind schedule..(30) Finally, though, in June 1997 the army opted for 100 Arjun and the first tank is due in 2002. Besides Arjun, which would eventually replace 1,700 Vijayanta tanks, India is planning to upgrade a similar number of T-52 tanks. (31)
In all these four areas--LCA, aircraft upgrading, missiles and MBT--India is pursuing some of the most ambitious, expensive and technology-oriented programs ever undertaken by a developing country. If one adds the plan to launch a satellite by the year 2000 capable of placing a two-ton satellite in orbit, the ambitions of the DRDO are astronomical.(32)
Unlike the Lavi there is no foreign option for the Indian military establishment and it cannot argue that imports are possible and would be cheaper than indigenous endeavors. Even those not satisfied with the DRDO's projects, progress and achievements are unable to offer a cost-effective alternative. As such, these endeavors enjoy widespread political support inside the country and from the Communists on the Left to the Nationalists on the Right various political parties view them vital to national security.
The ambitions DRDO provide a real, meaningful long-term challenge and opportunity for Israel. But instead of looking India as a market for exports to subsidize its defense research and weapon development, Israel can exploit the opportunities provided by India's unprecedented quest for technology and modernization.
IV. Preconditions for Strategic Partnership
Any attempt to establish a strategic partnership between India and Israel, would have to address and meet at least some of the following preconditions.
A. Overcoming past blinkers
It is essential for both countries to adopt a realistic attitude towards security cooperation. Since the early 1920s India viewed Israel primarily through an Arab and Islamic prism. In so doing it failed to perceive the value of normalization with Israel in promoting its own interest in the Middle East. Though everyone is not happy with it, normalization ceased to be a contentious issue in India and even those parties such as Janata Dal which opposed the move in 1992 came to terms with the reality to endorse and encourage bilateral cooperation.
It is impossible for India to be immune to the vagaries of the peace process and its impact upon security cooperation. Even the most pro-Israeli government in New Delhi cannot remain indifferent to India's historical ties with the Arab world, its growing economic relations with the Middle East and domestic pressures to support the Arabs. Succumbing to the temptation of linking it to the peace process would however, severely undermine any strategic partnership with Israel. Furthermore, most of the joint cooperation in areas suggested in this study would materialize only in the early part of next century, long after the mid-1999 deadline set by the Oslo process.
For its part Israel still remains indifferent toward India and the latter draws media attention only in times natural calamities and disasters. Security cooperation with India hence requires, an Israeli ability to understand contemporary India and its willingness to recognize India's military potential and progress in defense research. Past stereotypes and romanticized understanding are great impediments to a better appreciation of each other's expertise and potential.
B. Joint Research and Production
The Indian market is not small. In the early 1990s its annual defense budget hovered around 2.5 percent of GDP and in 1996-97 the budget was close to $10 billion, of which five percent went to defense research. India is committed to increasing the indigenous content of defense equipment from 30 percent at present to 70 percent by 2005. India however does not have the financial resources for its enormous military needs and modernization programs. Its indecisive stand on acquiring Advanced Jet Trainer (AJT) for over a decade and the time overruns faced by a number key projects such as LCA, MBT or MiG upgrading, are partly contributed by the military's inability to find sufficient and uninterrupted financial resources. Even the decision concerning MiG-21 upgrading was taken only after the air force resorted to cannibalization. As a result, in spite of the number of visits and regular contacts, Israeli exports to India are unlikely to be massive. Soviet/Russian inventories constitute a vast segment of the Indian inventories. Even it is able to find a willing supplier, India's financial ability to replace this dependency with non-Russian weapons is rather bleak. The indirect costs such as spare parts, training, repairs, over-hauling and organizational coordination would be gigantic.
Likewise the nature of Indian demands rules out Israel as a prime supplier in certain areas such as LCA where it is primarily concerned with designing and developing a platform. Another major arena that draws attention and funding is the development of Kaveri engines for the LCA. Israel's capabilities in exporting finished products are limited to Merkava, RPVs and missiles such as Gabriel, Python AAM, Jericho-I and 2, and Popeye. Among them Gabriel, Python and Popeye are attractive because India does not appear to be developing these types of missiles. Even if Israel is willing export, both Jericho missiles are an advanced version of the Prithvi and Agni missiles and hence are unlikely to be included in India's shopping list. The RPV is somewhat different. Pressing demands from the services coupled with production delays brighten prospects of importing a limited number of Israeli RPVs and UAVs, but substantial imports would be opposed by the DRDO as well by the parliamentarians.
Moreover, India's prolonged dependence upon Moscow for military supplies was largely influenced by attractive financial terms such as 'friendly prices', long payment schedule and barter and credit arrangements. Given the financial difficulties faced by Israeli military industries, such attractive financial terms are unrealistic.
A number of defense projects currently underway in India began in early 1980s when there was no serious threat to supplies. Coming after the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan that it refused to condemn, India was assured of continuous supply of advanced Soviet weapons, systems and platforms. Yet Mrs. Indira Gandhi consciously opted to produce main battle tanks, light combat aircraft and a series of guided missiles. If modernization and reduction of dependency on Moscow were the prime considerations she would have opted for imports and even dove-tailed some of her policies to suit Washington. These financially exorbitant, some might view prohibitive, projects are aimed at acquiring substantial technological experience and independence.
As such, in spite of time and cost overruns and technological impediments, India is unlikely to abandon its high profiled programs. Though undertaken without any external financial support, successful and early completion of a number of these projects would require an influx of foreign technology and expertise, an ideal condition for Israel. Technology and improvisation are not only in the realm of Israeli expertise, they also are available for export.
These three considerations -- Indian drive for technological expertise and independence, its financial constraints and Israel's operational deficiencies -- make joint research and development an attractive proposition. Facing similar challenges in a number of fields, both countries can coordinate and compliment their experience, expertise and demands. A number of on-going programs in India are not radically different from their Israeli counterparts including LCA (Lavi), Arjun (Merkava), Prithvi (Jericho-1) and Agni (Jericho-11). The same can be said about a number of other Indian programs such as UAV/RPV, airborne early-warning system, anti-ballistic missile system or cruise missile technology.
Irrespective of the ability of the DRDO to deliver the LCA by 2005, India would not be able to replace its entire fleet overnight and would have to upgrade the existing MiG fleet including MiG-21 as well as MiG-27 and MiG-29. One cannot be sure that Russia would again be chosen for such an endeavor. Instead of competing for the contract, it would be worthwhile for Elbit and IAI to explore the possibility of collaborating with the Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) and jointly bid for the upgrading contract. Upgrading Soviet fighter aircraft is not alien to India. HAL has been a licensee producing, repairing, over-hauling, refurbishing and upgrading MiGs and, like Elbit and IAI, it unsuccessfully sought the MiG-21 contract. Given the high labor cost in Israel, a joint venture with the HAL would significantly reduce cost thereby making the offer financially attractive and competitive. Such joint ventures can also be extended to third- party contracts.
Factors such as access to more advanced Western technology, a pressing security situation and early commencement of research have given Israel technological superiority over India. A number of Israeli inventories have undergone substantial improvements and modernization based on the battlefield experiences of earlier models. For instance, Jericho-I was introduced in the early 1970s, nearly two decades before India's Prithvi. Merkava tank introduced in the late 1970s and since then had seen two additional models and likewise the fourth generation of Popeye is currently being used by Israel. Collaboration with Israel would thus significantly reduce time and cost overruns for India and enable it overcome some of the technical bottlenecks. Arjun could benefit from the battlefield experiences and competence of three generations of Merkava tanks.
Israel's success in maintaining a technological edge amidst growing Arab conventional and non-conventional power depends entirely on its ability to fund special projects. For a variety of reasons, commercialization of technology appears the only realistic alternative. With a shrinking defense budget, exploring collaborative ventures with India makes economic as well as strategic sense. Even if third-party exports are ruled out, India presents a large market for Israel. For instance, within the next decade India has to replace most of its over 2,000 MBTs and to upgrade and replace around 400 MiGs. When more advanced Western countries are pursuing joint ventures, it would be difficult for India or Israel to solely pursue vital programs.
C. The U.S. component
Even though it was consistently pressing India to move closer toward the Jewish State since 1948, one cannot be sure that Washington would completely endorse and encourage Indo-Israeli security cooperation. For strategic as well as commercial reasons, the United States is apprehensive of some of India's ambitious plans and at regular intervals sought to impose economic and political sanctions to slow down and even throttle some projects.
A strong security cooperation in areas underlined in this study especially in anti-missile, cruise missile or Lavi technology is bound to bring the United States into the picture. Some of them are transferred or funded by the United States and hence would be subject to end-user conditions. Having vehemently opposed the testing of Agni or the deployment of Prithvi, United States is unlikely to be indifferent over Israeli willingness to transfer its Jericho expertise. American criticisms of Israeli export of Lavi technology to China become hollow if it is indifferent toward similar ventures with India. The American ability to override sensitive Israeli commitments to India would be much larger than those exhibited over Russia's attempts to sell cryogenic engines in 1993. Political proximity has not immunized Israel from American displeasure and threats of sanctions.
Hence, Indo-Israeli security relations would have to be coordinated with the United States. Prior understanding and transparency with Washington becomes essential. Direct or indirect involvement of American companies in Indo-Israeli joint ventures might partially ease the situation.
D. Institutional Framework
As democracies, the political leadership in both countries confronts a host of pressing domestic and regional concerns which limit their attention in promoting bilateral security cooperation. The picture is further complicated by frequent political changes in India, which bad as many as four prime ministers during 1996-97. In the words of one Indian commentator, "At the political level, India remains tentative in seeking deeper cooperation with Israel. At the administrative level, the wheels of Government grind far too slowly for New Delhi to get its act together and generate a policy momentum in any direction."(33) For its part, Israel is primarily concerned about its relations with the United States and its immediate neighbors.
Establishing a non-political professional arrangement responsible for security partnership is essential for the elimination of some of the difficulties such as political instability, procrastination in decisionmaking, absence of continuity, bureaucratic entanglement and lack of professional input. Though the appointment of Defense Attache is a significant move, he would be confined to providing professional inputs and would have very little say in decisionmaking.
Hence it would be appropriate that both countries establish a permanent body headed by the Scientific Adviser to the Defense Ministry (India) and the Director-General of the Defense Ministry (Israel). (34)
From the very beginning it is essential that the Indian parties are informed of weapons requiring third-party clearance. Otherwise Israel would be raising false and unrealizable expectations. For instance during President Weizman's visit Israel offered to sell Kfir fighters to India and it was not clear whether Israel sought and obtained American permission before making this offer. If denied permission, Israel would have to sell less powerful version than the original offer.
Likewise any weapons or systems not used by the IDF are unlikely to find favors in India. For example, it would be difficult for IAI to sell Phalcon radar as the state-of-art system, when the IDF is reluctant to use it. In the long run overselling would be a bad strategy.
For its part, it is essential that India expedites the decision making process. Frequent personnel change and the web of bureaucracy greatly undermine the trust and confidence.
E. Greater circumspection
Premature disclosures have become a major operational impediment to Israeli arms exports, leading to controversies and even cancellation of certain deals. Likewise official or non-official portrayal of Indo-Israeli security cooperation being directed at third countries such as China, Iran, Iraq, Pakistan or Syria would put severe pressures on bilateral relations. If the cooperation between the two non-Islamic countries is portrayed as a conspiracy against the Islamic world, even the most pro-Israeli government in New Delhi would find it difficult to endure domestic pressures to abandon securities ties with Israel.(35) While total blackout is not possible, military/security cooperation has to be handled with greater care. Though normalization ceased to be controversial, a sizable section of the population is not totally reconciled to the idea and vehemently opposes military cooperation.
V. Conclusion
The intense and diverse nature of contacts since 1992 indicate that prolonged absence of political relations has not inhibited India and Israel from seeking security cooperation. Largely revolving around the air force, they cover areas such as intelligence cooperation, naval patrol and anti-terrorism. They however share the common objective of seeking technological independence and qualitative superiority. The success of numerous strategic programs currently undertaken by both countries provide the best possible framework for strategic partnership.
