TAPI project likely to be launched in two months

[kaku1]

KABUL: Afghan Minister for Mines and Petroleum Daud Shah Saba said that the Tajikistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline project is expected to be formally launched in two months. Talking to newsmen in Kabul, he said that a meeting on TAPI in Islamabad had decided that a consortium leader would be finalised soon to immediately start the project. He said the steering committee’s next meeting would be held in Kabul. The nearly 1,800km-long proposed pipeline project worth around $10 billion aims to export up to 33 billion cubic metres (bcm) of natural gas per year and integrate economies of the four partnering nations.

TAPI project likely to be launched in two months

Is India on the board?

 

[Abu Zolfiqar]

2 months LOL!!!!! Thanks for the good laughs.

 

[Bilal.]

I dont think so. Pakistan will not build this pipeline even if there was no sanctions. The sanctions came only in 2012, and this pipeline has been on designing and proposal stage since 1950's. And despite the sanctions, other countries like India, Turkey and China sent their diplomats to US to get waivers for importing Iranian oil and gas even when under sanctions. They argued, their economy needed it. Pakistan could have done the same and even probably more because US need Pakistan's cooperation in Afghanistan. But anyways, who cares.

Pakistan did not face gas shortage and there was ample amount of gas for our need till late 2000s from the local resources. India, China and Turkey are at much stronger position at the moment to get waivers unlike Pakistan whose economy is recovering under IMF program. As for pleading the case, we could not secure financing for bhasha dam and you are talking about waivers... We are being treated unfairly on many fronts but we are sucking it up for now... Till our economy recovers and we become capable to standing up against the unfair treatment.

 

[Abu Zolfiqar]

Pakistan backed out of it.

correction: the nawaz sharif govt. and major Pakistani banks and creditors bowed down to western pressure due to threat of sanctions....i dont think backed out b/c we wanted to

i think pragmatic people in Iran would understand our difficult position here.....plus the other issue was the pricing mechanism which Iran kept changing

 

[Daneshmand]

Pakistan did not face gas shortage and there was ample amount of gas for our need till late 2000s from the local resources. India, China and Turkey are at much stronger position at the moment to get waivers unlike Pakistan whose economy is recovering under IMF program. As for pleading the case, we could not secure financing for bhasha dam and you are talking about waivers... We are being treated unfairly on many fronts but we are sucking it up for now... Till our economy recovers and we become capable to standing up against the unfair treatment.

Well, you and @LoveIcon have good points and I am aware of these already. Planners worth their salt should see the need down the road. That is why they are called planners.

In all probability CNG takes in only a small portion of total gas consumption since, engines use very little gas. The largest consumption of gas occurs in domestic sector followed by industry (in your case textile, chemical and fertilizers), as well as power generation.

Economy depends on energy and security. If you can not improve on these two, then the economy will never recover and a perpetual vicious cycle will make things worse. This is the point that Pakistan could raise with US.

Basha dam or for that matter other dams, are not being built because again in diplomatic arena, Pakistan has been failing (as you might or not be aware, India is against Pakistan building dams and uses all means available to it, whether in international courts, or by political subversion or international financial sabotage. India is a smart country).

At the end of the day, it will be Pakistan that suffers and will continue to suffer.

 

[Bilal.]

@Daneshmand, if the planners were worth their salt we wouldn't be seeing the electricity and gas shortage in the first place. Raising valid point is not going to persuade the US to sway from their regional agenda while they have us by the balls through the IMF. But their are signs of improvement and things are getting better compared to the previous government. If all things keep going in the right direction then hopefully we will be on our feet in 4-5 years.

 

[Daneshmand]

correction: the nawaz sharif govt. and major Pakistani banks and creditors bowed down to western pressure due to threat of sanctions....i dont think backed out b/c we wanted to

i think pragmatic people in Iran would understand our difficult position here.....plus the other issue was the pricing mechanism which Iran kept changing

It does not matter. What matters being, who is suffering and paying the ultimate price?

Pragmatic people ofcourse understand this in Iran and that is why they never took Pakistan to international court for financial damages. They know that Pakistan is already paying a heavy price for not implementing this pipeline.

The pricing mechanism, Iran offered, was actually very generous and free from any kickbacks and commissions. It was made to be extremely transparent and tied with Japanese crude oil market (Iran could not trust West). At 100 dollar a barrel of oil the gas would have cost Pakistan just 11 dollars per MMBTU including the cost of pipeline transportation. With oil at 40 dollars a barrel, the gas would have cost 4.4 dollars per MMBTU including the cost of pipeline transportation. Compare it with the amount that you will pay for gas imported via LNG terminals, and you will be shocked.

Take the case of Qatari LNG offer to Pakistan at 19 dollars per MMBTU including the kickbacks and commissions . Transportation of LNG is quite expensive compared to pipelines since the LNG takers are expensive to own and maintain as well as the evaporation loss of LNG during transport and storage (LNG is a boiling liquid). Typically transport costs for distance we are talking in case oof Pakistan and about a nation that has to hire foreign tanker since it does not own a fleet of LNG tankers, is 2 to 3 dollars depending on various factors (eg. old LNG tankers are cheaper to hire but have a higher evaporation loss rate). Then add the price of storage and regasification of LNG to gas which costs upward of 1 to 2 dollars. All this would mean you would end up paying upwards of 22-24 dollars per MMBTU, under a very opaque and non-transparent pricing mechanism.

I am sure you are happy now since you got rid of Iran's pricing mechanism. Enjoy the kickbacks.

@Daneshmand, if the planners were worth their salt we wouldn't be seeing the electricity and gas shortage in the first place. Raising valid point is not going to persuade the US to sway from their regional agenda while they have us by the balls through the IMF. But their are signs of improvement and things are getting better compared to the previous government. If all things keep going in the right direction then hopefully we will be on our feet in 4-5 years.

Let's see. I know only this: Without energy security, you can not build a modern economy.

 

[OTTOMAN]

what about IP?

IP = Internet protocol

 

[kaku1]

IP = Internet protocol

Nope Intellectual Property.

 

[slapshot]

As of this point I think Pakistan can't afford to go against his allies USA/KSA for IP.

 

[New World]

IP = Internet protocol

Intelligent Person

 

[slapshot]

Nope Intellectual Property.

What about India? Last time they pulled out of it, are they still interested in this deal?

 

[New World]

What about India? Last time they pulled out of it, are they still interested in this deal?

I think they are thinking to get pipeline through the sea

 

[OTTOMAN]

I dont think so. Pakistan will not build this pipeline even if there was no sanctions. The sanctions came only in 2012, and this pipeline has been on designing and proposal stage since 1950's. And despite the sanctions, other countries like India, Turkey and China sent their diplomats to US to get waivers for importing Iranian oil and gas even when under sanctions. They argued, their economy needed it. Pakistan could have done the same and even probably more because US need Pakistan's cooperation in Afghanistan. But anyways, who cares.

If you sell Gas at international price, than we'll build 4 pipelines.
Whereas, Turkmenistan's wonderful offer was always there, even before IPI... no wonder why Zardari ignored cheap gas offer and signed more expensive gas contract...... perhaps, he wanted to collect rewards for hereafter!
Afterall, his wife is already in hevan for passing Pakistan's nuclear technology, to the service of ayatolla.

 

[Daneshmand]

What about India? Last time they pulled out of it, are they still interested in this deal?

India's interest in this pipeline should rather be irrelevant from Pakistan's point of view (except for the royalty fees Pakistan was to receive). India depends much less on natural gas for its energy requirements. Pakistan depends on natural gas for over 50% of its energy requirement. For instance Indians use LPG canisters for domestic uses. Pakistan depends on a rather extensive network of natural gas pipelines to homes. Beside India has invested heavily in Qatar both in technology as well as financially in order to get heavy discounts on Qatari LNG. This is not so in case of Pakistan.