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TAPI Pipeline: Despite Security Issues, Bangladesh Expresses Interest

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TAPI Pipeline: Despite Security Issues, Bangladesh Expresses Interest
By: Angel Millar

TAPI Pipeline: Despite Security Issues, Bangladesh Expresses Interest Eurasia Review

November 12, 2012


Bangladesh said last week that it is keen to join the TAPI (Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India) gas pipeline project. The pipeline is already projected to cover nearly 1,700 km, and would need to be extended if Bangladesh were accepted into the project.

“There is a request from Bangladesh to join the project,” Turkmenistan’s acting Minister of Oil and Gas Industry and Mineral Resources Kakageldy Abdullaev said at the Petrotech 2012 Conference, held in New Delhi recently. “We require official note, which will be considered by all the four governments.’’ Bangladesh’s interest comes in response to an invitation, from the four TAPI nations, to consortiums interested in developing the pipeline.


Bangladesh
The Gulf Times reports that the $7.6 billion TAPI pipeline is expected to have a total gas capacity of 90 million standard cubic metres (mscmd) per day, originating in Turkmenistan. Afghanistan would absorb 14 mscmd, while India and Pakistan would each use consume 38 mscmd after it begins operating in 2018.

The TAPI project is backed by the Asian Development Bank, the largest shareholders of which are the USA and Japan (each of which have 15.65% of subscribed power and just under 13% of voting power [pdf], which massively outweighs other member states).

Washington sees TAPI as an opportunity to bolster Afghanistan’s economy, through its charging of a transit fee. However, the US geopolitics extends beyond the somewhat porous borders of Afghanistan/ As such, Bangladesh’s expressed interest in the pipeline will undoubtedly be welcomed.

Heralded as the “peace pipeline,” TAPI is drawing the historically antagonistic nation states of Pakistan and India into closer cooperation, at least on this particular issue. However, originating in Turkmenistan’s Yoloten-Osman gas field, and passing through the Taliban strongholds of Afghanistan’s Herat and Kandahar provinces, before reaching Pakistan, security poses a significant challenge to the construction and maintenance of the pipeline, and potentially jeopardizes the project.

The Asian Development Bank has proposed alternative routes, but, according to Pakistan’s Nation magazine there are questions about Turkmenistan’s ability to meet the demand. India, with its population of more than 1.2 billion and fast-growing economy, will quadruple its energy needs in the next five years alone. And Turkmenistan’s pipeline infrastructure is regarded as inadequate to meet the demands of TAPI – notably the country remains largely dependent on Russia to export to the West.

Unsurprisingly, Russia and its energy giant Gazprom have also expressed interest in participating in the TAPI pipeline project, although Russia continues to back the IPI project which would see Pakistan receiving gas from Iran.

Washington’s support for TAPI is to a large degree a reflection of its displeasure at IPI, and the lifeline it throws to Iran.

Keen to keep pressure on Tehran, economically – due to the suspicion that Iran is developing nuclear weaponry, not merely nuclear energy, as the regime claims – the USA has put pressure on Pakistan to drop the IPI pipeline project and to focus solely on TAPI. India, which was originally part of IPI (Iran-Pakistan-India), has already abdicated from the project.

However, Iran and Pakistan have already signed a bilateral agreement on IPI, and Russia and China are supporting it, partly in the ongoing battle to secure influence in the region.


About the author:
Angel Millar

Angel Millar is an independent researcher, a former contributing editor for the Intercollegiate Studies Institute, and the editor of People of Shambhala, a webzine of news and culture. His work has been published by the Journal of Indo-European Studies, Hudson New York, and the Calgary Herald, among others.
 
USA is advocating the TAPI project to take away Pakistan and India from IPI pipeline project. But, Pakistan is perhaps trying to involve China after India declined to participate reversing its earlier stand. USA is in a dillemma with Pakistan. If Pakistan joins the Iran project, it may decline to give access to India for TAPI project.

My personal wish is a success of both the projects. Hope someday Iran and USA come to terms and the IPI project restarts that can involve also BD. On the other hand the TAPI project may be in trouble with Taliban being against any national development. To guard the pipeline routes for a few hundred kms in the unaccessible mountain terrains of Afghanistan will not be an easy task to do. However, Pathan talibans may guarantee the security under a business deal whereby they protect the pipeline in exchange for an yearly payment of certain amount of money. Anyway, it may take a very long time before uncertainties is removed from both the projects.
 
USA is advocating the TAPI project to take away Pakistan and India from IPI pipeline project. But, Pakistan is perhaps trying to involve China after India declined to participate reversing its earlier stand. USA is in a dillemma with Pakistan. If Pakistan joins the Iran project, it may decline to give access to India for TAPI project.

My personal wish is a success of both the projects. Hope someday Iran and USA come to terms and the IPI project restarts that can involve also BD. On the other hand the TAPI project may be in trouble with Taliban being against any national development. To guard the pipeline routes for a few hundred kms in the unaccessible mountain terrains of Afghanistan will not be an easy task to do. However, Pathan talibans may guarantee the security under a business deal whereby they protect the pipeline in exchange for an yearly payment of certain amount of money. Anyway, it may take a very long time before uncertainties is removed from both the projects.

Well long back Iran asked Bangladesh to join the IPI pipeline project..

http://www.defence.pk/forums/bangla...es-bangladesh-join-cross-border-gas-grid.html

Bangladesh also welcomed the move...

http://www.defence.pk/forums/bangla...esh-welcomes-iran-offer-join-ipi-project.html
 
An adament Iran's nuclear project is hurting not only that country, it is hurting also Pakistan, China, India and Bangladesh, because these countries cannot import Irani gas with US veto against it. I am not willing to clap at the Iranian approach. Nuclear weapon is not some country's birthright. There is a little possibility that there will ever be a nuclear exchange because it will destroy the entire earth and its ecology. Humans will cease to exist.

The world has seen again the effects of nuclear fallout after the Fukushima earthquake and the subsequent accident in a nuclear plant in Japan. It was very small, but people cannot produce any food in the farms nearby anymore because it will transmit radiation to human bodies through the food produced in the fallout vicinity.

It was such a small fallout, but Japan is still suffering. Iran should get rid of nuclear ambition, allow UN/IAEA inspection teams in its plants. If Iran is powerful in conventional weapons technology it can destroy Israel even without an useless N. weapon. But, Iran is playing politics by uttering the name of Israel in order to go forward with nuclear ambition.
 
An adament Iran's nuclear project is hurting not only that country, it is hurting also Pakistan, China, India and Bangladesh, because these countries cannot import Irani gas with US veto against it. I am not willing to clap at the Iranian approach. Nuclear weapon is not some country's birthright. There is a little possibility that there will ever be a nuclear exchange because it will destroy the entire earth and its ecology. Humans will cease to exist.

The world has seen again the effects of nuclear fallout after the Fukushima earthquake and the subsequent accident in a nuclear plant in Japan. It was very small, but people cannot produce any food in the farms nearby anymore because it will transmit radiation to human bodies through the food produced in the fallout vicinity.

It was such a small fallout, but Japan is still suffering. Iran should get rid of nuclear ambition, allow UN/IAEA inspection teams in its plants. If Iran is powerful in conventional weapons technology it can destroy Israel even without an useless N. weapon. But, Iran is playing politics by uttering the name of Israel in order to go forward with nuclear ambition.

But they have seen what happened to Saddam without nuclear weapon and what happened to north korea with nuclear weapon. Example is Gaddafi is also there. I do not believe Iran is producing nuclear weapon but it wants to remain within the range to produce it if there is necessity of it. It will only compromise on nuclear issue if security guarantee is provided to it along with sanction is removed which USA has denied.
 
But they have seen what happened to Saddam without nuclear weapon and what happened to north korea with nuclear weapon. Example is Gaddafi is also there. I do not believe Iran is producing nuclear weapon but it wants to remain within the range to produce it if there is necessity of it. It will only compromise on nuclear issue if security guarantee is provided to it along with sanction is removed which USA has denied.

Your argument in favour of nuclear weapon is too flawed. USA had nuclear weapons when Mullah Khomeini took over from the Shah. Could the USA use that bomb on Iran? Iran is today without atoms, so I ask you why USA is not attacking Iran then with nuclear weapons instead of negotiating? Please think logically.

What Iraq could have done to the USA even with nuclear weapons? Iraq had chemical weapons, why did it not use it against USA or Kuwait?

N. weapon is not a toy that some of you may be fond of playing in a computer game. This weapon will not give any security to any country. Do you really think USA would have invaded North Korea if that country had no N. weapons? Why it is necessary for the USA to do so? N. Weapons are not for use.

By the way what security guarantee for Iran you are talking about. Is it israel? Oh, Iran is then afraid of that tiny Israel. Sanctions will be removed after Iran agrees not to pursue nuclear ambition. What are you talking about gaddafi & his nuclear weapons? Do not you read international newspapers?

Do you think USA invaded Gaddafi? It was the Libiyans who deposed and killed him. He ought to be deposed because he was an autocrat ruling Libiya for more than 30 years. He wanted his son to become the ruler after his death. I lived in Libiya for about 13 months, I know much about the interior of that country.

Anyway, keep on thinking that n. weapon is a toy that can be used at ease like defecating by the cows. Who can stop you from thinking like that? It is your choice.
 
Your argument in favour of nuclear weapon is too flawed. USA had nuclear weapons when Mullah Khomeini took over from the Shah. Could the USA use that bomb on Iran? Iran is today without atoms, so I ask you why USA is not attacking Iran then with nuclear weapons instead of negotiating? Please think logically.

What Iraq could have done to the USA even with nuclear weapons? Iraq had chemical weapons, why did it not use it against USA or Kuwait?

N. weapon is not a toy that some of you may be fond of playing in a computer game. This weapon will not give any security to any country. Do you really think USA would have invaded North Korea if that country had no N. weapons? Why it is necessary for the USA to do so? N. Weapons are not for use.

By the way what security guarantee for Iran you are talking about. Is it israel? Oh, Iran is then afraid of that tiny Israel. Sanctions will be removed after Iran agrees not to pursue nuclear ambition. What are you talking about gaddafi & his nuclear weapons? Do not you read international newspapers?

Do you think USA invaded Gaddafi? It was the Libiyans who deposed and killed him. He ought to be deposed because he was an autocrat ruling Libiya for more than 30 years. He wanted his son to become the ruler after his death. I lived in Libiya for about 13 months, I know much about the interior of that country.

Anyway, keep on thinking that n. weapon is a toy that can be used at ease like defecating by the cows. Who can stop you from thinking like that? It is your choice.

Its about Israel...
 

Its about Israel...

I guess it may be so. It is a way to ensure Israel's safety is not compromised.


Although Iran could easily not consider the arab problem of palestine-Israel issue and be on good terms with the West. Forming Hisbollah and Hamas is not getting them anywhere in foreign policy.
 

Its about Israel...

Pakistan and India have nuclear weapons. But did they use it during Kargil? So, nuclear is not an option. Did USA use it in Iraq or in Vietnam or in north Korea in the 1952-53 war? So, the simple conclusion is what Iran cannot do to Israel with conventional weapons cannot also be done by a useless atomic bomb.

By the way, why the USA is waiting for Iranian change of mind instead of bombing iran with atomic bombs? If the answer is it cannot, then it is obvious that Iran also cannot use it. But, Iran is playing a muslim triumph card and other muslims are dancing with the Iranian false tune.
 
I don't know about Iran, but getting gas through Pakistani territory is not good for India.

Whynot? India will only pay if the gas arrives in India. So does it matter if the gas travelled to pakistan or not. Also India should not 100% depend on it. It should use to supplement its need.
 
All for this..... Gas can flow both ways .... Bangladesh has need of energy and if the price is right then this would be good. Don't know much about the pipeline but if it goes through Bangladesh to Indian NE we could also earn transit fees.

Heck if bay of Bengal searches prove fruitful we Bangladeshi/indian gas can be supplied the other way....
 
Question for Indians:
1. Which one do you prefer: TAPI or IPI?
2. What is the concern in IPI? USA pressure or Pak in between that can block it when it wants to?
3. Can you continue exporting it to Thailand and Malaysia and etc too?
 
Beleive me...none of these pipeline is going to work out because there are too many surpising events lined up in both Pakistan and Afganistan after US moves out of Afganistan in 2014....These are just US containment statergy to contain India,Pakistan and Iran through different means....Ultimately..South Asia will suffer ....
 
Question for Indians:
1. Which one do you prefer: TAPI or IPI?
2. What is the concern in IPI? USA pressure or Pak in between that can block it when it wants to?
3. Can you continue exporting it to Thailand and Malaysia and etc too?

1- I feel internally India might have been inclined towards Iran as Iran is always supportive ally of India in most of the times.
But again....India does not have that much of financial clout not potential to go against US and Europe to bring problem of different sanctions in case they go ahead with Iran.

2- TAPI project will be really a non starter...There are too much variables involved in it....No one knows how Afghanistan will be after 2014.

3- In case any pipeline comes up...then it is the best of everyone interest to expand as much as possible....
 

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