Talks for Su-35, Mi-35 sales to Pakistan are underway: Russian Deputy FM

[Humble Analyst]

This deal will create strategic shift in Indian policy India to what level this remains to be seen. The official word from Russian Rosobornexport (SP?) I will wait to see it to believe it if it ever comes to be.

This deal will be very good for Pakistan, India and the region. Now you will say why good for India?
As long as there is imbalance of conventional weapons between Pakistan and India, India will be tempted to have a limited war. Limited War concept failed almost always if you read military History. So once conventional balance is restored the chances of nuclear war decrease and region can be secure. Now Russia does not need India as much as India needs Russia to continue to supply parts and armament of Russian origin. Russia will follow the US style of supplying arms to both nations and will have leverage on both. Russia was loyal to India and will be, but once you went ahead and bought Rafale from France, Apache, Sikorsky,Posieden and transports from US/Europe and various other armament from US. Who do you think broke the loyalty? This is not a movie that everything works your way.

 

[ni8mare]

And I agree, there shouldn't be any insult to anyone's religion or stuff. BUT....you guys need to follow it too. Debate, not personal attack. Because if you insult someone personally, then they'll say whatever the heck they want to say, and you don't have a case anymore either.

does not mean to attack religion ..........when same can be done to yours one too

So now from Russia selling the SU-35 we go to how scary the helicopters and jets look.....and your point is that what India got looks scarier than Pakistan ....MUAHAHAHAHA!!!!

......that's not what I meant

And if F-16 was that much capable then what is the purpose of SU-35 on first place .. why why why...
Suddenly russian junk has become superior overnight

you btw skipped this

 

[That Guy]

That is purely your own perspective. Your analysis isn't wrong, I won't say that, it's just the opposite possibility contrary my analysis to the current situation.

The thing is, it's not just my perspective, this is pretty much a common consensus between most analysts. There is little reason to believe the Su-35 is actually on the table.

 

[Thorough Pro]

one should never try to write when his *** is on fire

Su-35s for Pak :: Pie in the sky






Saturday, September 19, 2015

By : Russia India Report




Is Russia planning to win friends in Pakistan and lose influence in India? If Russia sells the advanced Su-35 fighter aircraft to Pakistan, it is likely to lead to a major diplomatic rift with India.

• Is Russia planning to win friends in Pakistan and lose influence in India? If Russia sells the advanced Su-35 fighter aircraft to Pakistan, it is likely to lead to a major diplomatic rift with India. So why did Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov make the statement that Russia and Pakistan were “negotiating for the delivery of an unspecified number of Su-35 jets” to Islamabad?
  
  The best case scenario is that Russia is keen to ensure India’s return to its fold. As India enters into an increasing number of defence partnerships with Russia’s rivals, particularly Israel and the US, but also France and the UK, Moscow believes two can play the game. It is in this backdrop that Russia has entered into a defence cooperation agreement with Pakistan.
  
  Another reason could be that the judgement of some Kremlin players is clouded by the pressure of economic sanctions and they would like to grab a larger share of the global arms market in which Russia traditionally has been a leader. However, this possibility can be discounted as western sanctions have not had the intended impact. Despite an unfavourable geopolitical climate in 2010-14, Russia accounted for 27 per cent of the global arms market, with approximately $14 billion in exports. In fact, Rosoboronexport, Russia’s weapons export cartel, has orders exceeding $40 billion on its books.
  
  Russia’s offer to Pakistan could, therefore, be in the same category as the forever-on-hold S-300 sale to Iran. Moscow has attempted to squeeze diplomatic concessions from the US and Israel as payoff for withholding the air-defence system from Tehran.
  
  Likewise, the Russia-Pakistan talks over the Su-35 could be a ploy to get India fully on board the PAK-FA stealth fighter programme. The Indian Air Force (IAF) was originally committed to buy 200 of these fifth generation fighters but has since cut back the planned buys to 127. Now India wants to buy these jets directly off the production line from Russia rather than jointly develop the aircraft.
  
  Perhaps the Russians believe that Pakistan’s possession of the Su-35 could scare India to buy larger number of the PAK-FA. India may also be forced to purchase other advanced Russian weapons as sops for blocking the Sukhoi sale.
  
  
  What can the Su-35 do?
  
  With around 60 MiG-29s and a Su-30 fleet projected at 300, India currently enjoys an enormous advantage over Pakistan. While India would like to maintain this edge, the Su-35 will make a dent – albeit a slight one – in the IAF’s advantage. Although the much larger IAF, with its AWACS force multipliers, would easily tackle the Super Flanker, the presence of a brand new fighter – that is more powerful than anything in the IAF – could cause some anxiety among India’s war planners.
  
  According to Pakistani analyst and former PAF pilot Kaiser Tufail, the Su-35 being a twin-engine aircraft with an extremely long range, would help Pakistan “have a significant and potent presence in the Arabian Sea”.
  
  He adds: “These fighters would also allow unhindered patrolling by naval (long range maritime patrol aircraft), as well as providing top cover to our fleet at sea....Essentially, I see it as a guarantor of maritime security as far as the airspace is concerned.”
  
  To be sure, the Su-35 will be a game changer only if wielded in sufficient numbers and in sync with other air defence assets and missiles. But Pakistan is unlikely to order more than two squadrons of the Su-35 because of the expenses of operating a heavy fighter. The Super Flanker burns as much fuel per hour as an entire Karachi neighbourhood. Plus, twin engines would mean double the maintenance time of a single-engine F-16 in the PAF fleet.
  
  
  Diplomatic powwow ::
  
  How serious is the offer? Ryabkov is a junior minister in Russian cabinet. But making an offer to a financially insolvent client – that is also an exporter of terror – is one thing. Making it stick is a different ball game. Approval for the sale will have to go through several rungs of the Russian parliament Duma and the military, plus there are higher powers in Vladimir Putin’s inner circle who can overrule Ryabkov. So there’s every possibility that the Su-35 for Pakistan will end up being the equivalent of the S-300 for Iran.
  
  However, in the highly unlikely scenario that the Su-35 wears Pakistani colours, Russia can say goodbye to its largest buyer. Although Russia was the second largest arms exporter in the world during the period 2010-14, it was less diversified than the US. According to SIPRI, “Three countries; India, China and Algeria; accounted for almost 60 per cent of total Russian exports.” India alone accounted for 39 per cent.
  
  In contrast, the US which led with 31 per cent, had Korea as its top buyer at just 9 per cent. The US therefore had a better spread than Russia.
  
  So without India, Russia’s arms exports will atrophy. And although the likes of Algeria, Indonesia and Malaysia continue to be steady buyers of Russian weapons, the flows to these countries are a trickle rather than a torrent. No country offers Russia such a long-term market as India.
  
  India was also the first international customer for the MiG 29, and in fact expressed interested in it during its development in the early 1980s. Again, the IAF was among the first air forces in the world to induct the Su-27/30. India’s early investment in the PAK-FA project is enough indication of its seriousness in the project.
  
  In the backdrop it seems unlikely Russia will go ahead with ramping defence ties with Pakistan beyond a few helicopter gunships.
  
  
  Stopping the Kozyrevs ::
  
  It was under Andrei Kozyrev’s watch that India diversified away from Russia. Kozyrev (Russian foreign minister from 1990 to 1996), who sought close ties with the West, had declared after the Soviet Union was dissolved that the new Russia would no longer give special importance to India and would in fact treat India and Pakistan as equals. So basically, the country that was indirectly responsible for the deaths of 15,000 Soviet lives during the Afghanistan War was preferred by him over friendly India.
  
  Deepa Ollapally of George Washington University writes in the paper ‘Indo-Russian Strategic Relations: New Choices and Constraints’, “Kozyrev relegated India to a secondary role. During this initial phase, which was to last until 1996, India was forced to take the initiative to try to build new bridges to the Duma and utilise earlier Soviet lobbies. India was able to exploit lobbies against Kozyrev's tilt which had formed in the Russian Federation presidential apparatus. It was aided by such figures such as Vladimir Lukin who called for greater attention to be paid to old allies.”
  
  “However, then Prime Minister P.V. Narasimha Rao had no choice but to diversify India's security links as its most crucial erstwhile ally continued to labour in confusion and anxiety over its economic and political status, with no clear signal regarding its foreign policy preferences.”
  
  Kozyrev currently lives in Miami where he has acquired money and a nice tan. He slams Putin to the delight of his American backers. The thing India and Russia must do is sidestep or sideline such actors and keep the phone lines open. For, just as there are a few Indian leaders wanting closer ties with the West at Moscow’s expense, there are some Russian leaders who cannot see the importance of having India on their side.
  
  According to Ryabkov, increasing military cooperation between Islamabad and Moscow would not negatively impact Russia's ties with India. His statements would vindicate Rao’s decision to wean India away from over-dependence on Russia. Compared with Rao, current Prime Minister Narendra Modi belongs to the right leaning RSS, which is pro-American. He is unlikely to treat such an issue lightly.

 

[somebozo]

This news is not very surprising as PAF pilots have been training on Chinese and Malaysian Su-27

 

[TigerJay]

Sir I fully believe that Su35 is coming to Pakistan only few questions regarding Su35.


1. India is going for the Super Sukhoi Program then what are the advantages of our Su35 over Super Sukhoi 30MKI.

2. Is it 100% sanction proof though it is not of US origin

3. How much Su35 is needed to counter and have deterance IAF.

4. Can you confirm Su35 sale to China.

5. Can Su35 beat j31 in air fight.


Good janab yeh indians bus Chabar Chabar kaar rahe hai.

1. Gawadar has more security than chabar.
2. Gawadar have more infrastructure than chabar.
3. Gawadar can only provide the route to central Asia.
4. Gawadar is the only port option for the chinese to reach arabian ocean.
5. Gawadar and all CPEC project have been finalized and deal signed and $40Bn transfered
via wiretransfer.
6. Indians are Idiot to deny Su35 the best fighter plane in asia.
7. Su 35 is the export sucess with hundereds of Russian, Chinese and now pakistani order.
8. Russia have now pakistan as a friend because they realise better defence market than indians and will provide pakistan with the woldclass and best tech. whom India don't have any answer.

You're just super troll and nothing beyond that, but for someone who has more brains than a peanut I would like to respond to your questions, but literally not for you.

1. India is going for the Super Sukhoi Program then what are the advantages of our Su35 over Super Sukhoi 30MKI.

Actually many, just google it. Specially that, before the MKI can see Su35s, they will be tracked and hunted. So it provides a very distinctive advantage.

2. Is it 100% sanction proof though it is not of US origin

Nothing is sanction proof in this world. Not even Indian deals with French or the the US.

3. How much Su35 is needed to counter and have deterance IAF.

Many, and which is why Pakistan needs to be aggressive about this deal and then workout a deal to induct 5 gen.

4. Can you confirm Su35 sale to China.

Nobody needs to confirm nothing here. It's your effing problem you do it.,

5. Can Su35 beat j31 in air fight.

You're really a troll. Su35 will never be put against J31. In fact Su35s now and J31s on the later stage will provide PAF and extra advantage.

Good janab yeh indians bus Chabar Chabar kaar rahe hai.
Indians have a bad habit of beating the wrong drums. History proves it.

1. Gawadar has more security than chabar.

Yes it has

2. Gawadar have more infrastructure than chabar.

No, but that's exactly what is being done right now.

3. Gawadar can only provide the route to central Asia.

Not the only but it has many advantage over Chabahar. For example Chabahar needs acces through Pakistan waters, but Gwadar is not dependent on any other country for it's access. And Chabahar is a Gulf only port while Gwadar is an International port.

4. Gawadar is the only port option for the chinese to reach arabian ocean.

Yes it's the only.

5. Gawadar and all CPEC project have been finalized and deal signed and $40Bn transfered
via wiretransfer.

Lame. Because it is India which is crying over CPEC and not Pakistan. CPEC is the reality of future but you can't comprehend the outcome of it or you just just don't want to.

6. Indians are Idiot to deny Su35 the best fighter plane in asia.

They probably are. but then are even stupid, first to discuss possibilities for Rafael, then back out from it and then go back in again.

7. Su 35 is the export sucess with hundereds of Russian, Chinese and now pakistani order.

What's your point here? Are you saying it's not a good plane? What exactly are you doing here on this blog then? Go have some rest. And really save everyone from your trolls.

8. Russia have now pakistan as a friend because they realise better defence market than indians and will provide pakistan with the woldclass and best tech. whom India don't have any answer.

Whenever you look at things regarding Pakistan, you do not have to keep forgetting it's never only about Pakistan and it's about, Russia-China-Pakistan Axis. So yes, it is much bigger and lucrative market for your tiny brain to comprehend.

The thing is, it's not just my perspective, this is pretty much a common consensus between most analysts. There is little reason to believe the Su-35 is actually on the table.

OK.

 

[Thorough Pro]

You can\t play the same "afford to lose" card with the limited number of suppliers when you own industry sucks at producing anything on it's own. Russia also sells to China so what did you do?

if Russia can afford to lose India who is the biggest buyer in the world and biggest buyer for Russia.....so good luck

 

[airmarshal]

Russia is not losing India. India is so much dependent on Russia as a significant portion of its military hardware is of Russian origin. It needs Russia as much as Russia needs India. Knowing this, Russia can play this game. It knows fully well how much India is dependent on it.

Be realistic instead of being bombastic. Russia is a great power and India cant match its outreach and its role in world politics. Keep your money and change in your pocket.

The news of potential sale is true. It has been confirmed by PAF official as well. Its a great diplomatic success for Pakistan to talk to your strategic partner and buy the best military hardware it can offer to the world market.

And you Indians keep telling us we are isolated!! Now who is isolated?

 

[thrilainmanila]

the deal doesn't make sense. india is involved in the PAK-FA, once PAF get the damn thing the indians will have the PAK-FA which is something which the russians claim to rival the F-22. whats the point?

 

[Blue Marlin]

You must understand something. PAF is not an independent Air fighting unit. It is just like the Peoples Liberation Army Air Force. i.e. an Air wing of the Army. When the Army says jump, they don't ask "why", they say "how high?"

To those (not you) who question me, go back in history, and see how Dar was asked to pay for the Jordanian Vipers. Dar was smart enough NOT to ask "why?", but "how much?".

the Pakistan army does have an aviation arm. the airforce does assist the army granted, i ask of you to read this post which is extremely in depth. JF-17 Thunder: Made for the PAF . but the army does have its own aviation division Pakistan Army Aviation Corps - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia


also i love how you say "not you"

 

[Pakistan4life]

I think its a power shift between Russia China and Pakistan and India going to be alone in the region. Russians also thinking to take benefit from Gawadar as China going through. Sooner or later u guys see the news.

 

[illusion8]

There is one thing to be kept in mind however. If tomorrow the Russians do decide to sell the Su-35, they can and will despite all Indian protests; since India really cannot do anything about it.

The reasons for that are the existing massive contracts that India already has with Russia. While from the persepctive of many Indian members it would seem as if India has Russia in a fix; so does Russia have India in the fix. That billion invested in those weapons is an investment of both time and money. Time is the most important commodity here as those weapons represent a capability that the Indian military forces cannot afford to delay or lose. They cannot leverage stepping out of those contracts because that puts a dent in their capability. A capability that INDIA WANTS FROM RUSSIA.

Which is why, despite India's protests.. the US still sells to Pakistan. and will also sell to India. Is it possible(unlikely as it may seem w.r.t Su-35) that Russia is taking the same path as the US?

An earlier poster was commenting on Russia offering top of the line products to Pakistan - I believe and I could be entirely wrong here that the real top of the line products, as in..nuke subs, stealth ships, stealth fighters, nuke carriers, top of the line armaments remain confined to a small circle of buyers for whom everything is on offer and can buy what they want...some would argue that the niche would be because of economics., But I think it's a closed buyers group.

I assume here that most top sellers have invisible red lines which they do not cross.

 

[SQ8]

An earlier poster was commenting on Russia offering top of the line products to Pakistan - I believe and I could be entirely wrong here that the real top of the line products, as in..nuke subs, stealth ships, stealth fighters, nuke carriers, top of the line armaments remain confined to a small circle of buyers for whom everything is on offer and can buy what they want...some would argue that the niche would be because of economics., But I think it's a closed buyers group.

I assume here that most top sellers have invisible red lines which they do not cross.

If that means Russia selling us the products you refer to I seriously doubt that. Considering how little we know about what aircraft has been offered(if it has been really) we dont know if its the same fit that is going to the VVS or a downgraded model much like the Mig-31E.

 

[Indus Falcon]

the Pakistan army does have an aviation arm. the airforce does assist the army granted, i ask of you to read this post which is extremely in depth. JF-17 Thunder: Made for the PAF . but the army does have its own aviation division Pakistan Army Aviation Corps - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia


also i love how you say "not you"

Well you are free to believe what ever you want. But the Jordanian Viper case, was an eye opener for the non-believers.

Secondly, I wasn't targeting you or being sarcastic, I was genuinely addressing people who have trouble digesting what this old fool says.

Thirdly, thank you for letting me know PA has an Aviation Corp, After all can't expect a Lance Naik to know that, can we!

 

[313baberali]

I feel that by these talks,
Pakistan is putting pressure on the US to release more F-16s...
and Russia is putting pressure on India to cancel the Rafael deal and buy more SU-30s.

Very nice comment bus uncle sam ko koi genuine topi karani paray gi ,jab hi f22 milaien gy