Taliban Leader Maulvi Kabir Captured

[S-2]

"The anti american sentiment is so high , that no gov would be willingly accepting its role in the drone attacks"

This is an important op-ed that argues for the drones. Mr. Husain supports a series of op-eds written by Ms. Farhat Taj elsewhere. I've been in touch with Ms. Taj in a series of e-mails that I'd share if I thought more were interested. She has some very strong opinions that dispute the narrative sold east of the Indus. Maybe elsewhere too.

I know there are some in the American military academia whom are opposed as well. Oddly, none of these academics or anybody else can speak with certainty about the collateral costs of PREDATOR. It truly simply isn't known with crystalline clarity. Ms. Taj says she speaks with IDPs and others from FATA who report the effects of PREDATOR devastate the enemy at no cost. Sounds exaggerated and something I don't even agree. However, I'm certain it isn't the bloodbath many have protrayed. She's pashtun from the area as well.

I'd encourage those here, however to read a document known as the Peshawar Declaration which followed a conference there last December. It can be googled easily enough through KhyberWatch.

Howling At The Moon-Irfan Husain DAWN Jan. 9, 2010

Here are Ms. Taj's op-eds-

Drone Attacks -A Survey THE NEWS March 5, 2009

Drone Attacks: Challenging Some Fabrications-DAILY TIMES Jan. 4, 2010

Drone Attacks and U.S. Reputation-DAILY TIMES Feb. 6, 2010

They are, minimally, thought-provoking.

Thanks.

 

[S-2]

"The only question remains, are all the drone strikes carried out through the agreed setup be it a Joint command or shared intel structure?"

All strikes which are a result of Pakistani target development/intel are obviously a result of an agreed set-up. All strikes that we develop by nat'l technical means are too where the target is not sufficiently time-sensitive/perishable. However, within the proscribed "kill-box" alluded to by Ignatius I can assure you that where the target is fleeting we attack it.

It is better to seek forgiveness than ask permission applies in those time-sensitive cases.

"There is no doubt that in the current arrangement the drone strikes are not seen in any positive light collectively on a public level due to the obvious infringement of national sovereignty."

This is what so disturbs your government now. While howling at the American infringements you've denied the infringements existing by Afghan taliban, chechyan, uzbek, Bosnians, and arabs. Nobody has said,

"Yes, Haqqani and Omar have and continue to be on our lands from where they've attacked the Americans, ISAF, and the afghan people".

Is that not an infringement too? Some would think so and it would demand an explanation.

"Is it supported by Pakistan? Is Pakistan too weak to eject them?", they would ask.

No doubt thinking and rational observers would wonder these things. Remember, denying such has been a consistent mantra of your government's information policies for years. How many times there and at this board have we heard the Quetta Shura didn't exist? Finally, out of the blue Ahmad Mukhtar says not that they exist but have been destroyed.

Maybe. Maybe not but the #2 was busted a couple of weeks ago and they've been falling like bowling pins ever since. Then there are Pakistan's own citizens like Hafez Gul Bahadur and Maulvi Nazir who've made no bones about using Pakistani land from which to attack the western armies and the Afghan government.

Thorny problems dealing with these contradictions and likely enough to make any general or former/present leader uncomfortable.

Thanks.

 

[Always Neutral]

The ISI is not dug in on ground or parading infront of TTP in uniform. It is conducting covert ops and this means that it cannot go in immediately and confirm the kills since if it had such numbers it would do the killing itself, covert OPs are meant to be done without thousands of troops since there is no guarantee of information being authentic and such numbers not only involve heavy cost to mobilize but also are a sure shot way of forewarning the target.
The ISI would and is operating through field agents and many informants; it verifies the information through its field teams via different sources.
It takes time to confirm the kills and is very dangerous if the claim is proven to be incorrect since it gives confidence to the terrorists, on the other hand doubt only weakens their ranks.

In using PAF for such covert activity there is every chance that by the time an F-16 is scrambled, the target is either gone or further checks revealed that target is not authentic.
A wasted sortie involving tremendous cost and spares and reducing the life of the frontline fighter of a cash starved and understrength airforce which needs to be ready for war against conventional threats as well ... HUGE ones!!!
All the while when genuine confirmed targets exist even in FATA and are being targeted in meaningful day and night sorties by the best of PAF in support of Army.

Only recently PA has been deployed to deny space to the TTP in FATA and so we can expect SSG and other fire control teams to direct laser guided munitions as part of regular operations against known and verified targets behind enemy lines, these however are more military threats like strongholds, bunkers, weapons caches and not a small house where some TTP leaders is being suspected to have reached at night and is expected to grace the audience with his visage in a suitable location; for execution and initiation of a drone strike upon confirmation.
Such operations call for different method and different tools.

When targetting such individuals through informants we cannot keep our strike assets in air 24/7 and usually the time window for such strikes is very limited so it also is not worth it to launch hundreds of F-16 sorties for and gain only a few kills.

Drone is a sophisticated yet cheap alternative to solve all the problems which cannot be solved by using your frontline aircraft in what can best be described as chasing ghosts through FATA.

None of the reasons given above are military fully right.

Firstly its a fallacy to feel that US can cover all areas with drones simultaneously or that moment an Intell is recieved on a very high value target like BM the drone will already be positioned overhead.

CIA will follow their own method of target allocation as per their ops requirement.

If ISI has the Intell and real good one than it will be easier use their own air assets than US ones which may or may not be available at your beck and call. I have seen it happen to often between the various arms of ones' country than to believe that it can be co-ordinated between two different countries which till late had un spoken trust issues.

I am not advocating PAF going after low value mullah with F 16 but people like BMand HM who are declared enemy of the GOP!

I think what S2 states is nearer to the truth. Certain areas which are no go areas for PA have been awarded to US to act on as the situation develops and these are the places they donot need any consultation and have their own Intell to do that. In other areas there is no reason to doubt the ISI and CIA must be co-operating.

Regards

 

[S-2]

Sorta think you guys are talking at cross-purposes here and, combined, have nearly the whole picture.

Nobody is able to provide full coverage at all times-not even the combined assets of U.S. and Pakistan. We've had to pull coverage from areas in Nuristan and Konar to support ops elsewhere and done so only to pay a cost in lives from unsupported field units lacking timely intel. That includes both armed and reconnaissance drones.

I've no doubt we've areas of interest where armed-drones are hovering on stand-by. Quite possibly 24/7 if they've been cued to a specific possible target. I'm less certain but concede the possibility that we've launched on short notice for other areas where HVTs have unexpectedly emerged. All is very situational dependant and the intel sources could be coming from anywhere.

Thanks.

 

[seekers]

"The anti american sentiment is so high , that no gov would be willingly accepting its role in the drone attacks"

This is an important op-ed that argues for the drones. Mr. Husain supports a series of op-eds written by Ms. Farhat Taj elsewhere. I've been in touch with Ms. Taj in a series of e-mails that I'd share if I thought more were interested. She has some very strong opinions that dispute the narrative sold east of the Indus. Maybe elsewhere too.

I know there are some in the American military academia whom are opposed as well. Oddly, none of these academics or anybody else can speak with certainty about the collateral costs of PREDATOR. It truly simply isn't known with crystalline clarity. Ms. Taj says she speaks with IDPs and others from FATA who report the effects of PREDATOR devastate the enemy at no cost. Sounds exaggerated and something I don't even agree. However, I'm certain it isn't the bloodbath many have protrayed. She's pashtun from the area as well.

I'd encourage those here, however to read a document known as the Peshawar Declaration which followed a conference there last December. It can be googled easily enough through KhyberWatch.

Howling At The Moon-Irfan Husain DAWN Jan. 9, 2010

Here are Ms. Taj's op-eds-

Drone Attacks -A Survey THE NEWS March 5, 2009

Drone Attacks: Challenging Some Fabrications-DAILY TIMES Jan. 4, 2010

Drone Attacks and U.S. Reputation-DAILY TIMES Feb. 6, 2010

They are, minimally, thought-provoking.

Thanks.

I don't understand the double standard of "My own Nationals and Mullahs" .They always criticized the US. drone attacks in FATA but no one did speak a single word when All gulf war was commanded by US Army and Airforce ,which Fighters take off from Damman Airport to stike over Baghdad.
Shame on wahabis sheikhs who said "YA AMRICA MADAD(help)" at a time of their own Jihad.

 

[All-Green]

None of the reasons given above are military fully right.

Firstly its a fallacy to feel that US can cover all areas with drones simultaneously or that moment an Intell is recieved on a very high value target like BM the drone will already be positioned overhead.

CIA will follow their own method of target allocation as per their ops requirement.

If ISI has the Intell and real good one than it will be easier use their own air assets than US ones which may or may not be available at your beck and call. I have seen it happen to often between the various arms of ones' country than to believe that it can be co-ordinated between two different countries which till late had un spoken trust issues.

I am not advocating PAF going after low value mullah with F 16 but people like BMand HM who are declared enemy of the GOP!

I think what S2 states is nearer to the truth. Certain areas which are no go areas for PA have been awarded to US to act on as the situation develops and these are the places they donot need any consultation and have their own Intell to do that. In other areas there is no reason to doubt the ISI and CIA must be co-operating.

Regards

My friend there is no such thing as a 100% foolproof plan.

However that does not mean that there is zero coordination, sometimes the coordination is superb, sometimes not good.

What i am trying to emphasize here is that in such search and kill operations which target an elusive figure, the drones are the best means and offer unparalleled stamina as opposed to the fighter jets.
Helicopter gunships are also pretty much more effective in such hunter killer missions due to their ability to stay in the suspected zone for long; but they are best being used in targeting and pounding the militant positions and are not at disposal of ISI for assassination of few suspected terrorists.

In this profile the drones offer the best means militarily, however they still require an intelligence operation to back up the strike.

There is intel sharing and that i do not doubt.
I also think that the presence of PA will in long term make drones a very infrequent means to an end till we acquire our own, however currently the lethality will increase due to many more eyes and ears on the ground.

BM was very crafty and his counterintelligence was excellent and he had tons of cash to spend on his aides to ensure loyalty.
The ISI lost good men trying to kill this man so i do not doubt that he really was good at covering his tracks.
As far as i have heard once it was a close shave and the person was only one level away in the heirarchy from having direct interaction with BM...

I think ISI did reasonably well considering the absolute Isolation it had to work in before but now that PA is pushing in, i see much better prospects.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

BTW i did thank not only ISI but CIA too.

Regards

Why? There is nothing to indicate the CIA has played a critical role in the recent arrests starting from Baradar.

There is definitely no information on a CIA role in the arrests of the three alleged governors so far.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

Because he is living happily in pakistan? Care to tell why the case of a man like Mullah B who is in detention for 5 days is not even known to your own Home Minister?

Simple dr. watson

White House Spokesperson Gibb's described the NYT story as 'unhelpful' when it broke (without confirming or denying it initially), so needless to say, even the Obama administration may not have been happy with the timing of the release.

So given that both government wanted to keep it under wraps, why would the Pakistani interior minister confirm a story in an American newspaper - your contention that the IM did not know of the capture of Baradar is complete speculation - at worst he did not want to confirm the story since the military had indicated that they did not want to publicize it for intelligence gathering purposes.

Once the party in charge of capture and interrogations openly confirmed it, he had no reason to deny it.

By the way, the IM's strongest language was reserved for the NYT's contention that this was a 'joint operation', which, again, there is nothing credible suggesting the CIA played a critical role.

whats the difference between those and a f-16 with PGM ? Come on child step upto the plate after all HM and BM were in Pakistan and if you knew their location it would be childs play for PAF?

The difference, as All green pointed out already, is the ability to loiter for long periods of time, which the F-16's, in the numbers that the PAF has them and without A2A refueling capabilities, cannot provide.

Since HVT's know they are being hunted and prime targets, and modify their movements accordingly and try not to stay in one place for too long a time, developing targeting information on an HVT will be touch and go, and unless you have resources in the air to divert to the target, there is a good chance you'll miss.

See for example how many times HVT's have managed to escape 'a few minutes before the attack', and that too with the kind of loitering capability the UAV's provide.

The PAF is already engaged in providing PGM support to Army and FC operations in FATA, and does not have the resources to have 2, 3 or 4 F-16's in the air constantly waiting for target information on an HVT.

By the way, Pakistan did indeed provide intelligence multiple times on B Mehsud's location and was rebuffed by the US when asked to target him through the drones, during Bush's time in office.

First time I am hearing that a half a million strong army is stretched thin in its own country.

A half a million strong army also has to contend with an over a million strong hostile army on the Eastern Front, along with dealing with the insurgency in FATA.

Perhaps you should stop trolling as much and start 'hearing' more.

Sorry the CIA told you where to look a fact agreed even by ISPR.

I have been looking for a credible source from Pakistan to detail the extent of CIA involvement in Baradar's arrest - cold you link to that ISPR statement please?

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

Having their cake and eating it too in short.

The current situation is in large part the US's fault. Pakistan, and if you believe Seymour Hersh's comments attributed to Musharraf, have since day one asked the US to allow Pakistan to operate the drones or make it appear that Pakistan operates the drones, to avoid the perception of violation of sovereignty by the US.

Given Pakistan willingness to target militants in FATA herself if provided this technology, the US has no excuse to justify its violation of Pakistani sovereignty through drones.

The whole 'have their cake and eat it too' could have been, and can be, resolved if the US provides Pakistan with the technology needed to carry out these drone strikes.

Till then it is a willful violation of Pakistani sovereignty, so long as the GoP is not comfortable with the idea of the US operating the drones and and refuses to publicly confirm cooperation on that level.

Provide the technology necessary and problem over.

 

[Always Neutral]

Why? There is nothing to indicate the CIA has played a critical role in the recent arrests starting from Baradar.

There is definitely no information on a CIA role in the arrests of the three alleged governors so far.

Well all Pakistani Papers who attended the ISPR conference published the same.

ISPR confirms Mullah Baradar's arrest | Pakistan | News | Newspaper | Daily | English | Online

It may be recalled here the Taliban's top military commander was arrested in a joint CIA-Pakistani operation in Karachi some three days go and he has been handed over to Pakistani authorities for interrogation.

I am sure satellite phone and VOIP interception and triangulation facilities if at all available with Pakistan cannot match what the CIA has.

The NYT had this news much earlier than any local Press and hence an American involvement can safely be taken for granted.

ISI has fought tooth and nail to oppose all efforts of placing them under the HM so chances are he is out of the loop. This was his statement. Highly credible if you see his numerous flip flops in the past about Xe and drone strikes

If there is any big target, I will show the nation,” Malik said. “We are a sovereign state and hence will not allow anybody to come and do any operation. And we will not allow that. So this (report) is propaganda,” he added.

Regards

 

[Always Neutral]

The current situation is in large part the US's fault. Pakistan, and if you believe Seymour Hersh's comments attributed to Musharraf, have since day one asked the US to allow Pakistan to operate the drones or make it appear that Pakistan operates the drones, to avoid the perception of violation of sovereignty by the US.

Given Pakistan willingness to target militants in FATA herself if provided this technology, the US has no excuse to justify its violation of Pakistani sovereignty through drones.

The whole 'have their cake and eat it too' could have been, and can be, resolved if the US provides Pakistan with the technology needed to carry out these drone strikes.

Till then it is a willful violation of Pakistani sovereignty, so long as the GoP is not comfortable with the idea of the US operating the drones and and refuses to publicly confirm cooperation on that level.

Provide the technology necessary and problem over.

But there is a difference. US violates your territory with the aim of taking out your enemies like TTP

Whereas

TTP allows all hired crooks and guns (uzbeks etc) for hire to violate your territory to take out the PA.

I see a big difference above. Maybe its time to tell your naive public that you need US help or you donot have a solution in the short term for TTP leadership.

Regards

 

[H2O3C4Nitrogen]

But there is a difference. US violates your territory with the aim of taking out your enemies like TTP

No , The US only did went after TTP thugs when its CIA agents were killed by the jordanian double agent . Before that , the ISI provided US many times the credible intel on BM's and HM's location, but the call was ignored..!

I see a big difference above. Maybe its time to tell your naive public that you need US help or you donot have a solution in the short term for TTP leadership.

You are terribly wrong , what makes you think that . The PA had different priorities . At that time the Swat front was also active so there were not enough resources which could be allocated to go after TTP and BM , When the PA cleared off SWAT and finally went in for BM , suddenly he was killed by a drone strike .
Pakistani Public is certinly not comfortable with those drone attacks taking place with complete impunity , There has to be a check and balance and should only be carried out when theres a go ahead signal from the PA's behalf .. not merely on its own intel ..! Only then we might clasify it as a joint venture ..!

 

[DaRk WaVe]

After a terrible day, I have at last got a good News

Congratulations People

God Bless Pakistan

 

[Awesome]

stop fighting guys...

Thank you.

 

[Awesome]

I think the recent anti-Afghan Taliban offensive is great and necessary. Even though we have some use for them if India begins using Afghanistan as its platform to flank us from the west. We must get rid of our dealings with Mullahs altogether for our internal Mullah problems to go away as well.