Tajikistan poised to slide back towards war

[Falcon29]

Tajikistan underwent a massive civil war in the 90s after it got independence, between the old communist elite and the islamists, and in the peace agreement signed to end that war, the rebels were given seats in parliament and allowed to form a political party. Now the government has again banned the opposition along with banning hijab, beards as well as harrasing Muslims trying to practise their religion. Basically the things that kicked off the first civil war are happening again, but the major difference is now you also have Isis and other extremists in the region, who will most certainly enter any conflict that gives them a chance to take over territory in the region.

Thank you, I agree it will be ripe conditions for extremists to try exploiting.

 

[libertycall]

No need, my wording could have been more clearer. As for divide and conquer, the soviets mastered that art.

Have you studied their campaigns against Imam Shamyl in Daghestan?

 

[Kambojaric]

Civil war will actually lead to greater demand for India in the region.

The previous civil war led to Tajik antipathy towards Taliban for supporting the losing side. Perhaps that is reason India is allowed to operate the base.

More interesting would be to see Russian response to crisis of a fellow CSTO member.

Certainly that's one option. Russia would probably crack down hard on any armed uprising against a Russian ally but it is already involved in two major conflicts (Ukraine and Syria). Would it really be willing to enter a third conflict. The US on the other hand might decide to support the rebels to remove a Russian allied regime.

Have you studied their campaigns against Imam Shamyl in Daghestan?

The history of that whole region is tragic. Yes I have read about him briefly but not in too much detail. Hadji Murat was an interesting read on that region.

 

[Kyusuibu Honbu]

Certainly that's one option. Russia would probably crack down hard on any armed uprising against a Russian ally but it is already involved in two major conflicts (Ukraine and Syria). Would it really be willing to enter a third conflict. The US on the other hand might decide to support the rebels to remove a Russian allied regime.

Russia has been very possessive about its influence on CARs and Russia is treaty bound by CSTO military alliance to assist Tajikistan. Russian inaction would lead to loss of credibility of the alliance and over all Russian influence in CARs.

Collective Security Treaty Organization - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[Kambojaric]

Russia has been very possessive about its influence on CARs and Russia is treaty bound by CSTO military alliance to assist Tajikistan. Russian inaction would lead to loss of credibility of the alliance and over all Russian influence in CARs.

Collective Security Treaty Organization - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Thats a valid point but then again the Russian economy is suffering heavily from the ongoing oil price slump and its war's in Ukraine and Syria (Russia’s recession deepens as economy contracts 4.6% - FT.com ).Already its economy has contracted 4.6% last year, and forecasts suggest oil prices will continue to fall, especially with the return of Iran into the oil market.

If Russia does enter such a hypothetical conflict, like it did in the first civil war then it can expect to be dragged into a guerilla war, as the geography of Tajikistan is ideal for hit and run into the mountains tactics. The CIA will know this and possibly fund the rebels to bleed the Russian economy even more.

In other news:
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Tajikistan shaves 13,000 beards in 'radicalism' battle

Police says more than 160 shops selling headscarves are also closed as part of a fight against "foreign" influences.

Police in Tajikistan have shaved nearly 13,000 people's beards and closed more than 160 shops selling traditional Muslim clothing last year as part of the country's fight against what it calls "foreign" influences.

Bahrom Sharifzoda, the head of the south-west Khathlon region's police, said at a press conference on Wednesday that the law enforcement services convinced more than 1,700 women and girls to stop wearing headscarves in the Muslim-majority Central Asian country.

The move is seen as part of efforts to battle what authorities deem "radicalism".

Tajikistan's secular leadership has long sought to prevent a spillover of what it sees as unwelcome traditions from neighbouring Afghanistan.

Last week, the country's parliament voted to ban Arabic-sounding "foreign" names as well as marriages between first cousins.

The legislation is expected to be approved by President Emomali Rahmon, who has taken steps to promote secularism and discourage beliefs and practices that he sees as foreign or a threat to stability of Tajikistan, Radio Liberty said.

In September, Tajikistan's Supreme Court banned the country's only registered Islamic political party, the Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan.

Rahmon has ruled Tajikistan since 1994 and his current presidential term is expected to end in 2020.

In December, the parliament granted the president and his family life-long immunity from prosecution, giving Rahmon the title "Leader of the nation" and officially designating him "the founder of peace and national unity of Tajikistan".

The country of 7.1 million people has struggled with poverty and instability since independence from the Soviet Union more than two decades ago. It remains heavily dependent on Russia where majority of Tajik people go for work.

According to unofficial estimates, there are more than 2,000 Tajiks fighting in Syria.