India in Central Asian Republics
MUHAMMAD ASAD
India desires to further strengthen its military ties with the Central Asian Republics (CARs). To achieve this purpose, several Indian military delegations have been visiting capitals of Central Asian States, particularly Tajikistan. The visits are aimed at firming up plans for joint military exercises and economic projects. Several ministers of the CARs have already visited India.
The USA is also encouraging India to deepen her ingresses in the Republics as peoples of some republics abhor USA because of her over-ebullient support to Israel vis-à-vis Muslim countries. Agha Shahi in "Geopolitics of Central Asia" points to "combination of India and Israel" which "serves the American Strategic interests in the Middle East and is now being focused on Central Asia" (see Islamabad Policy Research Institute Factfile Pakistan and Central Asian States, 1992-2006)
India has already been using Tajikistan as a base for her aircraft carrying humanitarian and reconstruction aid to Afghanistan. Several batches of Tajik Army officers have already been trained in Indian military establishments (as per agreement signed between the two countries).
Central Asia occupies an important place in New Delhi's "security calculus". India visualizes CARs as a scene of a new geopolitical game. It expects competition between the United States, Russia, and China in this area - China and Kyrgyzstan have conducted joint military exercises aimed, ostensibly, at coordinating their response to terrorism. The United States has enhanced its military presence in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan since its involvement in Afghanistan and secured cooperation from Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan.
India wishes to supplant Russia from the CARs. But, certain treaties sanction Russian presence in the CARs. For example, (a) the 1993 Treaty of Friendship between Russia and Tajikistan gives Russia's Federal Border Service authority for the protection of the Tajik border. Russia's 201st Motorized Rifle Division occupies a base near Dushanbe. (2) The Russian Air Force has deployed its planes at the joint Russian-Kyrgyz air base, Kant Air-Base, in Kyrgyzstan, under e Collective Security Treaty.
Despite its frantic efforts, it would be hard for India to realise her dream of being the master player in the CAR. India lacks the sophisticated weaponry that Moscow and Washington could provide to the CAR. India's immediate aim is to isolate Pakistan in the region and gain political support on the Kashmir issue. Already, India feels much embarrassed by creation of the China-dominated Shanghai Organization. The organisation unites Russia, China, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan.
Stephen Blank, a professor at the Strategic Studies Institute of the US Army War College, had warned that the visits of Indian military officials to Tajikistan was part of a broad design, which he believed was "quite alarming" in its potential. "There are many signs that India is gearing up to put military pressure on Pakistan," he said. "The Indians are absolutely furious with Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf...". Blank envisaged the possibility that the Farkhor base in Tajikistan, close to the Afghan border, will be the focus of India's deepening involvement in Central Asian defence.
The Farkhor military base was established to funnel Indian relief assistance to Kabul after India and Pakistan imposed mutual bans on over flights in December 2001. However, the base is actually meant to force Pakistan to thinly spread its air-defence assets towards Afghanistan. Aini air base is another threat to Pakistan's military interests.
India understands that Pakistan is an energy-deficit country. India wants to utilise her presence in the CARs to scuttle Pakistan's efforts to tap energy resources of the CARs. Because of India's overt and covert manipulations, Pakistan has not been able to make headway with projects to lay pipelines from the CAR to Pakistan.
Because of India's presence in Afghanistan, it is now becoming increasingly difficult for Pakistan to run the pipelines across Afghanistan to the CAR. Dr Maqsoodul Hassan Nuri in "Pak-CAR Relations: Future Outlook" (The News, August 23, 2004) questions: "What are prospects of gas and oil pipelines? Firstly, they are still statements of intent. The Afghan government will have to muster financial resources to build pipelines, the plants needed to turn natural gas into liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and to improve the harbour facilities for LPG tankers. The UNOCAL and BRIDAS litigation deterred many U.S. companies to invest, as they are worried about instability of Afghanistan and even South Asia'. The pipeline from Iran is under a cloud because of India's uncertain cooperation and US cooperation.
Obviously, India has not accepted Pakistan's existence at heart. It wants to weaken Pakistan militarily and economically.
RAND scholar Tanham in Indian Strategic Thought points out, "Indian politicians viewed the 1947 partition and creation of Pakistan as an unfortunate but temporary breach in the strategic unity of the subcontinent". But, India must realise it would not be easy to break up a nuclear Pakistan. Clearly, it is in India's interest to accept Pakistan as a friendly neighbour. It should abandon Chanakya's mandal policy - 'all neighbouring countries are actual or potential enemies'.
http://www.nation.com.pk/daily/sep-2006/8/columns3.php