Taiwan would not survive month of attack

[bolo]

Only Indian logic believe Taiwan stands a chance against us. If Taiwan confident in themselves, why didn't they declare independence, my Indian friend?

Grow some ball man.

Indians can talk all they want. They are indians and do not understand China-Taiwan history. It's a common theme at pdf, if Chinese support one side, indians will stand on the other side.

in fact i'm surprised so many indians love to troll on Chinese section when it doesn't concern them at all.

 

[tranquilium]

actually,things aren't so easy which one thinks...Amphibious Assault is always one of the most difficult form of Warfare.I'll put it just behind of Airborne Invasion.Success of an Amphibious Invasion lies on several several points.

Objective-- To capture entire Taiwan and make it submission.now,Taiwan's Force isn't weak.it is somewhat good according to its size and truly can defend itself to certain point.

Intelligence

Approach--China may target some unguarded beaches,which may reduce their casualty.but their journey will be none the less perilous.see,Taiwan has a capable Navy.they owns a lot of ASCM.Smaller Crafts armed with ASCM(missile Boats like Kuang Hua VI, which Taiwan has some around 40)could be used by great effectiveness to damage these troop carrying ships.plus,Coastal Arty will be another thing of concern.nobody could expect to wipe out entire "Coastal Battery" using Missiles and Bombing.even 30% of Coastal Arty could be devastating.

Assault--if we look towards the battle plans of Taiwan,they're relying on their Army now to defend their Shoreline and Battle will be fought there.their objective will be denying any space to invading force and if it fails,to hold it along the shoreline with the performing "Counter Attack" with help of Navy and Airforce.now,securing beaches in the face of mobile Arty and SRBM will be one of the major challenge.plus,PLA will need to send tens of thousands,if not hundreds of thousand to just secure this beaches.see,most of the beaches of Taiwan is fortified,which will be tough to secure.its easy to say that "thousands of missiles will completely crush its defence bla bla bla",but Gulf War showed that it doesn't.Enemy could regroup even in the face of overwhelming superiority.plus,Taiwan's most(if not all) Airbases are now have Hardened Bases,just like mainland does.it'll be not so easy to cripple their force effectively within short span of time.

Lodgement---To perform this,they've to completely secure these Beachheads so that reinforcements and equipments can be carried out,which is too hard if your opponent has Long Range Arty,cruise missiles and other weapons which could be used to target Ships and Beach Bombardments.

Breakout--Next stage of war.they've to leave Beach and have to headed for inland.now,if we count some 2.5-3 hundred thousand soldiers which will remain and will have defensive posture,clearing this kind of force will need around 2-3 times more soldiers.

the main problem of Amphibious Warfare is bringing all the equipment and Men needed to perform the war.they'll need dozens of LST,LHD/LPD along with constant air support just to secure the beaches and neutralize the opposing force there.now imagine much larger operations just to bring the force which will head for inland.that'll need so massive number of troop carrying ships and aircrafts which China doesn't possess now.now get an estimate that how many ship will be lost(worst case),and if China could carry out the war even in the face of that kind of loss...

now decide whether it is easy or lil bit difficult.

Here is the thing. All this discussion hinges on Taiwan still having ability to retaliate after the first round of saturated strikes. As demonstrated by wars in Iraq, when the two military power of such disparity fight, the stronger one will eliminate the other side's ability to resist within the opening salvo. While Chinese military isn't as powerful as US military, considering the distance, the Chinese army is able to bring far more force to bear than US to Iraq. Taiwan's military is also nowhere near as powerful as Iraq. Taiwan is also less than 1/7th the size of Iraq, leaving no space to run and nowhere to hide.

Basically, this is like talking about setting up layers and layers of traps in the field when the other side can eliminate the entire field with single strike.

 

[GR!FF!N]

Here is the thing. All this discussion hinges on Taiwan still having ability to retaliate after the first round of saturated strikes. As demonstrated by wars in Iraq, when the two military power of such disparity fight, the stronger one will eliminate the other side's ability to resist within the opening salvo. While Chinese military isn't as powerful as US military, considering the distance, the Chinese army is able to bring far more force to bear than US to Iraq. Taiwan's military is also nowhere near as powerful as Iraq. Taiwan is also less than 1/7th the size of Iraq, leaving no space to run and nowhere to hide.

Basically, this is like talking about setting up layers and layers of traps in the field when the other side can eliminate the entire field with single strike.

if you study my other posts,I gave both Optimistic and realistic estimates of how much enemy defence generally gets destroyed during these strikes.I'm posting again....

in 1999,NATO flew 38000 Flying Missions to bomb Yugoslavia.along with it,USA fired hundreds of Tomahawk Cruise Missiles.though Taiwan is somewhat smaller,but result was very strange.only 21 armored vehicles get destroyed.you can get the pictures now.plus,Taiwan has similar kind of Hardened Bunkers and Underground Bunkers which is standard in modern armies.nobody fields its equipment so that they gets easily destroyed.its easy to think that one cruise missile can wipe out dozens of tank in open,if in cluster,but things never worked out that way.most of the times,these missiles destroy infrastructures,but war equipment remains intact.

 

[BoQ77]

I'm not sure how long Taiwan survive under nowaday attack.
But I know 1 clear fact...

1. Taiwan has been staying away from China for 65 years, peaceful and highly developped, even there're some attacks from China. This is so strange because their frontal islands is just in the shotgun range of China coasts.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

I'm not sure how long Taiwan survive under nowaday attack.
But I know 1 clear fact...

1. Taiwan has been staying away from China for 65 years, peaceful and highly developped, even there're some attacks from China. This is so strange because their frontal islands is just in the shotgun range of China coasts.

Taiwan will collapse within few months without China's help.

 

[chhota bheem]

Taiwan will collapse within few months without China's help.

What kind of help? And have seen you giving so many positive ratings to posts with out any info in threads related to China.

 

[bolo]

I'm not sure how long Taiwan survive under nowaday attack.
But I know 1 clear fact...

1. Taiwan has been staying away from China for 65 years, peaceful and highly developped, even there're some attacks from China. This is so strange because their frontal islands is just in the shotgun range of China coasts.

Not true. Taiwan tried to invade China in 1965 but failed and never tried again.

 

[BoQ77]

Not true. Taiwan tried to invade China in 1965 but failed and never tried again.

The Second Taiwan Strait Crisis, also called the 1958 Taiwan Strait Crisis, was a conflict that took place between the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the Republic of China (ROC) governments in which the PRC shelled the islands of Quemoy and the nearby Matsu Islands along the east coast of the PRC (in the Taiwan Strait) in an attempt to drive away the Army of the ROC.

 

[tranquilium]

The Second Taiwan Strait Crisis, also called the 1958 Taiwan Strait Crisis, was a conflict that took place between the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the Republic of China (ROC) governments in which the PRC shelled the islands of Quemoy and the nearby Matsu Islands along the east coast of the PRC (in the Taiwan Strait) in an attempt to drive away the Army of the ROC.

That was a political front. Designed to curb separation elements in RoC government. Basically, at the time US wants Taiwan separated from mainland. Jiang, for all his faults, didn't want to follow US' command and as a result, US begins to support elements within KMT against Jiang. The shelling of Kinmen islands allows Jiang to declare marshal law over Taiwan for the next decade and he subsequently arrested and executed the separationists. The actual fighting is minimum considering both sides took a fixed schedule and only shells on alternative days.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

What kind of help? And have seen you giving so many positive ratings to posts with out any info in threads related to China.

Without the 100 billion USD surplus from China, they will already turn into the second Philippines.

That was a political front. Designed to curb separation elements in RoC government. Basically, at the time US wants Taiwan separated from mainland. Jiang, for all his faults, didn't want to follow US' command and as a result, US begins to support elements within KMT against Jiang. The shelling of Kinmen islands allows Jiang to declare marshal law over Taiwan for the next decade and he subsequently arrested and executed the separationists. The actual fighting is minimum considering both sides took a fixed schedule and only shells on alternative days.

I don't like Jiang, but he did a great job to stop the Taiwanese referendum in 1996.

 

[tranquilium]

if you study my other posts,I gave both Optimistic and realistic estimates of how much enemy defence generally gets destroyed during these strikes.I'm posting again....

in 1999,NATO flew 38000 Flying Missions to bomb Yugoslavia.along with it,USA fired hundreds of Tomahawk Cruise Missiles.though Taiwan is somewhat smaller,but result was very strange.only 21 armored vehicles get destroyed.you can get the pictures now.plus,Taiwan has similar kind of Hardened Bunkers and Underground Bunkers which is standard in modern armies.nobody fields its equipment so that they gets easily destroyed.its easy to think that one cruise missile can wipe out dozens of tank in open,if in cluster,but things never worked out that way.most of the times,these missiles destroy infrastructures,but war equipment remains intact.

Erm, in your analysis, you did not take into a saturated attack to destroy all airfield, fuel depot, communication nexus into account and speaking of 1999, for the entire during of NATO's involvement in Yugoslavia, the US commit a grand total of 1 battalion of ground troops to the operation and their only task is to capture an airfield. This is similar to Vietnam war where no US ground troops is allowed to enter North Vietnam border. Of course these air strikes are less effective, there are no ground troops to secure the objectives!

Without the 100 billion USD surplus from China, they will already turn into the second Philippines.



I don't like Jiang, he did a great job to stop the Taiwanese referendum in 1996.

That's the wrong Jiang. I was referring to Jiang Jieshi or Chiang Kai-shek. The shelling of Kinmen island is essentially a cooperation between him and Mao Zedong to curb independent elements in Taiwan. The Jiang from 1996 is Jiang Zemin.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

Erm, in your analysis, you did not take into a saturated attack to destroy all airfield, fuel depot, communication nexus into account and speaking of 1999, for the entire during of NATO's involvement in Yugoslavia, the US commit a grand total of 1 battalion of ground troops to the operation and their only task is to capture an airfield. This is similar to Vietnam war where no US ground troops is allowed to enter North Vietnam border. Of course these air strikes are less effective, there are no ground troops to secure the objectives!



That's the wrong Jiang. I was referring to Jiang Jieshi or Chiang Kai-shek. The shelling of Kinmen island is essentially a cooperation between him and Mao Zedong to curb independent elements in Taiwan. The Jiang from 1996 is Jiang Zemin.

That's why the Romanization is pretty confusing to use the Chinese names here.

 

[tranquilium]

That's why the Romanization is pretty confusing to use the Chinese names here.

Yeah, that was my mistake.

The 1996 crisis is, well, not exactly the best outcome for mainland. At the time, PRC was treating the event as a repeat of the the second Taiwan strait crisis. It was believed Peng Ming-min was pro-Taiwan separation and Li was against it since he was the late 蒋经国's sucessor. Of course, later history proved that it was a big misjudgment on Beijing's part. There was also the Taiwan spy involved, which was rather embarrassing.

Though personally, I believe that the root of the difficult lay somewhere else. After the collapse of USSR, the old balance was gone and China has yet to grow to the economic and military powerhouse it is today. Basically, China is facing the blunt of US' pressure by itself for the first time.

I am okay with Jiang Zemin, but his historical role is not going to be as memorable as his peers. He was a leader during great social transition and his job, which he performed well, was to fix the problems left the rapid social change and lay the foundation for someone else to build greater things. He fixed a lot of economic and social problems in China.

For example, the large inflation experienced by China during late 80s are gone by the end of Jiang's term. His term also saw the reduction of counterfeiting products and other crimes. I remember there are a lot of large crime cases in the earlier 90s. One particularly memorable one is the Shanxi fake liquor case where the merchant used industrial alcohol to make fake liquor, which caused hundreds of people to be poisoned across the country. These large cases are essentially curbed by the time Hu goes in the office.
Jiang also supported a lot of modernization programs of Chinese military. For example, the J10 fighter exists because Jiang gave heavy support to Chengdu aviation. It is also believed that J20's program began under Jiang's term. Also, there are the Shenzhou series of space exploration program.
Of course, Jiang's greatest achievement and possible curse is the reformation in the state owned enterprises which pissed off A LOT of people. I wouldn't argue too much about it, because it is a rather mixed bag, but suffice to say one of the main reasons Chinese economy can progress as well as it did from 2000 onward is because Jiang laid a pretty good foundation for Hu and Xi to work on.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

Yeah, that was my mistake.

The 1996 crisis is, well, not exactly the best outcome for mainland. At the time, PRC was treating the event as a repeat of the the second Taiwan strait crisis. It was believed Peng Ming-min was pro-Taiwan separation and Li was against it since he was the late 蒋经国's sucessor. Of course, later history proved that it was a big misjudgment on Beijing's part. There was also the Taiwan spy involved, which was rather embarrassing.

Though personally, I believe that the root of the difficult lay somewhere else. After the collapse of USSR, the old balance was gone and China has yet to grow to the economic and military powerhouse it is today. Basically, China is facing the blunt of US' pressure by itself for the first time.

I am okay with Jiang Zemin, but his historical role is not going to be as memorable as his peers. He is a leader during great social transition and his job, which he performed well, is to fix the problems left the rapid social change and lay the foundation for someone else to build greater things. He fixed a lot of economic and social problems in China. For example, the large inflation experienced by China during late 80s are gone by the end of Jiang's term. His term also saw the reduction of counterfeiting products and other crimes. I remember there are a lot of large crime cases in the earlier 90s. One particularly memorable one is the Shanxi fake liquor case where the merchant used industrial alcohol to make fake liquor, which caused hundreds of people to be poisoned across the country. These large cases are essentially curbed by the time Hu goes in the office. Of course, Jiang's greatest achievement and possible curse is the reformation in the state owned enterprises which pissed off A LOT of people. I wouldn't argue too much about it, because it is a rather mixed bag, but suffice to say one of the main reasons Chinese economy can progress as well as it did from 2000 onward is because Jiang laid a pretty good foundation for Hu and Xi to work on.

Jiang Zemin was not my favorite leader, but I would still pick him over any KMT leader at any time.

At least Jiang Zemin got Hu Jintao as his successor, but look who was the successor of Chiang Ching-Kuo? Lee Teng-Hui AKA the old Jap dog.

That's why KMT sucks, since they always screw up everything.

 

[terranMarine]

Erm, in your analysis, you did not take into a saturated attack to destroy all airfield, fuel depot, communication nexus into account and speaking of 1999, for the entire during of NATO's involvement in Yugoslavia, the US commit a grand total of 1 battalion of ground troops to the operation and their only task is to capture an airfield. This is similar to Vietnam war where no US ground troops is allowed to enter North Vietnam border. Of course these air strikes are less effective, there are no ground troops to secure the objectives!

Also why compare with Yugoslavia right? It is much and much larger than TW

This photo perfectly shows the island is for the largest part mountainous. Only the western coast are filled with infrastructures. China's missiles only have to focus the Western area, which is tiny compared to Yugoslavia.