Cracks are starting to appear between Russia and Syria
Lebanon's Hezbollah scouts carry their parties flag while marching at the funeral of three Hezbollah fighters who were killed while fighting alongside Syrian army forces in Syria in Nabatieh town, southern Lebanon, October 27, 2015
Hezbollah secretary general Hassan Nasrallah recently tackled the recent battles southwest of Aleppo, where the party reportedly suffered its worst losses since entering the conflict in Syria. Nasrallah admitted in a
speechbroadcasted live on the group's Al-Manar TV on June 24 that 26 Hezbollah fighters had been killed since the beginning of June.
This rare acknowledgment of the party’s death toll seems to be an attempt to downplay the recent spate of casualties suffered in fighting near Syria’s largest city. This tally was later confirmed by the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, who
reported that “25 Hezbollah fighters were killed in southwest of Aleppo, which is the highest toll for Hezbollah fighters in a single battle since 2013.”
Nasrallah later explained that the heavy losses came after the arrival of thousands of opposition fighters to the area via the Turkish border, who aim is to capture Aleppo and its surrounding countryside. However, several experts claim that the mounting Hezbollah casualties were mainly due to a lack of Russian air cover in the battle.
Russia’s unilateral announcement of a two day ceasefire in Aleppo was actually one of the main factors that contributed to Hezbollah’s heavy losses. Russia's defense ministry
stated that the goal of the ceasefire, which
began on June 16, was to lower the level of violence and stabilize the situation in Aleppo.
However, it was later
claimed that Russia announced the ceasefire in Aleppo without consulting Damascus or Tehran and that the Russians intentionally deprived pro-Assad forces in Aleppo of air cover due to conflicting agendas among the allies. Mustafa al-Ahmed, a rebel fighter with Jaysh al-Fatah in Aleppo, believes that the absence of Russian airstrikes was the main reason behind Hezbollah’s losses.
“Although the extensive use of mortar shelling and car bombs had contributed to a high number of casualties among Hezbollah’s fighters, the main reason was the absence of Russian air support to the Shiite militias backed by Iran,” Ahmed argued. Similarly, Hezbollah supporters
reportedly blamed Russia for the mounting casualties and publicly criticized Moscow for not using its air force to protect the party’s fighters.
Russian bombers attacks targets over Syria in this 2015 photo.
Russian Defense Ministry
Exhaustion among Hezbollah fighters, who are spread over several fronts in Syria, may also have contributed to the recent spike in casualties. Ali al-Saadi, a field commander in the Iraqi Shiite militia Harakat al-Nujaba, which is active in Syria and Iraq,
told Al-Quds al-Araby that Hezbollah has requested urgent reinforcement from Iraqi Popular Mobilization militias to support their fighters in Aleppo.
Saadi linked this request to the increased inability of Hezbollah to fight effectively while its fighters are active in multiple operations across Syria. He added that the Russian government had informed its Syrian counterparts that airstrikes in support of Hezbollah near Aleppo would not be useful unless there were enough soldiers on the ground to secure areas taken from rebels.
Although not having enough fighters may have contributed to Hezbollah’s losses, it is unlikely that this was the main reason behind the spike in casualties. Al-Akhbar’s editor-in-chief Ibrahim al-Amin
wrote on June 17 that Iran, Russia and Syria have agreed on an action plan for a large battle in Deir Ezzor province in which Hezbollah will play a central role.
This claim, if true, refutes Saadi’s explanation and demonstrates that Hezbollah is willing and has the man power to expand their operations into new fronts in Syria.
Reuters
The most likely explanation behind the mass casualties is that Russia was not on board when the Syrian regime and Iran launched their Aleppo offensive. Nasrallah argued the fighting near Aleppo was necessary to “defend what remains of Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and Jordan.”
However, it seems that Hezbollah was not able to convince Russia to fully support this battle. “Nasrallah’s latest speech exposed Iran’s failure to convince Moscow to fully join the fight to retake Aleppo and its countryside from the opposition,”
wrote Mustafa Fahs, a former fellow at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations. Interfax news agency also
quoted Russia's ambassador to Syria saying that he did not expect the Syrian army to assault the city in the near future.
Nevertheless, it seems that Iran had a plan to change Russia’s position, but the strategy backfired. “Iran was trying to drag Russia into Aleppo by starting the fight there alone and hoping that the developments on the ground would push the later to join. However, it seems that Hezbollah is the one who paid the heaviest price for Iran’s gamble,” said a Western diplomat based in Lebanon, who spoke under the condition of anonymity.
“We had to be in Aleppo, and we will stay in Aleppo,” Hassan Nasrallah declared in the same speech. The Hezbollah leader even promised to increase their presence there as "retreat is not permissible." However, it seems that the party leader is ignoring the recent improvements in relations between Russia and Turkey, which may reduce Russia’s involvement in Aleppo and could in turn increase the party’s losses there.
Haid Haid is a Syrian researcher who focuses on foreign and security policy, conflict resolution and Kurds and Islamist movements. He tweets @HaidHaid22
http://www.businessinsider.com/cracks-appearing-between-russia-syria-2016-7
i was expecting this kind of response. On first day i was a bit skeptical of this news but now it is an undisputed claim because none of your freedom fighters denied it.
