I'm curious what your broad reading of the Syrian situation is in a few different dimensions: current momentum on the ground, Assad's ability to survive, foreign support for him and, more specifically, how you see Israeli dealings with a post-Assad Syria and a new Middle East where Arabs (especially in Levant and Gulf) are starting to see Iran as their principal geopolitical foe.
I know the discussion will be hijacked by trolls here, but am interested in your perspective.
Here what we can tell:
1) Assad will keep getting massive and consistent aid from Iran, Russia, Hezbollah no matter what. And most probably this aid will even grow.
2) West is not going to strike Assad or make NFZ, no matter what he is doing to his people (although he already did all crimes possible).
3) Aid to rebels well continue to be small and not consistent.
4) US will continue to bomb IS.
5) Assad and Hezbollah will ethnically cleanse border area with Lebanon.
Weak points:
1) Assad positions are vulnerable in Daraa, Deir Ez Zor. In longer term in Hasaka (where they are totally at Kurds mercy), Aleppo and Hama (where is a big "sleeping" Sunni population).
2) Rebel weak points are encircled Ghouta and Rastal-Houla-Talbise triangle.
3) IS is weak point. I dont think they will last for very long.
Now to prediction. I see two options for Syria:
1) Lebanese style coalition government while each party has own militia and territory.
2) Syria splits to parts Yugoslavia style.
In 2011-2012 there was a good chance for united Sunni ruled Syria as it was before Assads. But thanks to massive support of Iran/Russia and impotence of rebel supporters we remained with Lebanese/Yugoslavian options.
It shows green areas in Idlib, Daraa, Damascus already in summer 2011. In fact first town ever captured by rebels was Rastan in
jan 2012.
First Daraa towns were taken by rebels only in the
end of 2012: Tafas and Tasil.
Rebels are actually in Fua'a, they are attacking it from Binnish which is right next door. JMWA are not attacking Fua'a, only IF and JaN are.
3 JaF fighters were killed, while 10 regime soldiers were killed. JaF sources said nothing about destroyed tanks, and they don't lie about their losses, unlike regime.
As if the regime does anything different than shooting unguided rockets...except those rockets usually have a much larger payload and more shrapnel. IRAMs.
Currently the fighting occurs at Suwaghiya 4 km north eat to Fua.
