@500
Can u give the most probable future course of action the assad opposition is likely to take
Thanks for question. Its hard to predict things in Syria so I will just list the main factors. So what happened recently:
Idlib regime "gut" is virtually eliminated.
Assad also lost strategic Palmira to ISIS.
Now regime has 3 major vulnerable points:
1) Aleppo "gut".
2) Dar'a gut.
3) Isolated troops in Deir ez Zor.
(I am not talking about little things like isolated Fua town, Abu Duhur and Kwers airbases).
I think all 3 are doomed but it can take lots of time. Here are major factors:
1) ~20K strong Jeysh al-Fatah. ~80% of them are from Idlib. Will they continue fighting in other provinces or stay in Idlib?
2) US Coalition activity. Right now they mainly support Kurds and virtually non existent in Homs. I think that without Coalition support Assad cant take Palmira back.
3) Weapon supplies to rebels. In recent months rebels in North get nice quantities of TOWs (about 50 a month) and some other weapons like mortars, on the other hand Daraa rebels get little supplies (only TOW launch in past 2 months). So we see little activity in Daraa.
4) Hezbollah. If they mobilize they can easily double their forces in Syria from some 6K to 12K+.