Zarvan
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A T-72 tank seen in a Jabhat al-Nusra video released on 23 April. Source: Jabhat al-Nusra
Pro-government forces in Syria suffered the latest in a series of reversals when a recently formed rebel coalition captured the town of Jisr al-Shughur in the northern province of Idlib on 25 April.
The recent defeats began at the end of March when the Southern Command rebel coalition seized the town of Busra al-Sham in southern Syria and the Nasib crossing on the Jordanian border.
On 28 March, the city of Idlib fell to the Jaysh al-Fatah Operations Room: a new coalition of mainly militant Islamist factions led Jabhat al-Nusra, Al-Qaeda's Syrian affiliate. Jaysh al-Fatah capitalised on this success to attack Jisr al-Shughur, 30 km to the southwest, on 22 April.
The operation was co-ordinated with Ahrar al-Sham and several other rebel groups that launched attacks to the south to prevent reinforcements reaching the town from Hamah.
It was assumed that the Syrian army would mount a robust defence of Jisr al-Shughour as it sits on the highway leading southwest to the regime stronghold of Latakia. However, the town fell to Jaysh al-Fatah on 25 April and the Qarmeed army base 8 km south of Idlib city was overrun on the following day.
The Syrian army's presence in Idlib is now limited to a narrow finger of territory running along the M4 highway to the army base at Al-Mastumah, 5 km south of Idlib city.
Unless the Syrian army is able to mount a counter-offensive to retake Jisr al-Shughour, the troops in the Al-Mastumah pocket risk being cut off. The rebels could also push further south toward the city of Hamah or alternatively swing southwest towards Latakia.
However, the Syrian army already is seriously overstretched and is relying increasingly on Shia auxiliary forces from Lebanon, Iraq and Afghanistan led by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
The deteriorating situation in northern and southern Syria appears to have been behind a visit to Tehran on 28 April by Syrian Defence Minister Fahad Jassim al-Freij. The Syrian Arab News Agency said Freij's visit was aimed at "strengthening coordination and cooperation between the two armies".
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Syrian army pushed back in north by new militant coalition - IHS Jane's 360
