August 18, 2011
Syrian currency begs for answers about influx of foreign cash
Stable pound contradicts precarious plight of economy
A sharp discrepancy between Syria's nose-diving economy and its relatively stable currency is fuelling speculation among observers that either another country, presumably strategic oil-rich ally Iran, has injected huge amounts of cash into its economy, or Damascus is quickly draining its foreign currency reserves.
Syria's overall economy, stock market, vital tourism industry and foreign investment have collapsed, according to economists and analysts. It appears to have haemorrhaged cash, with the bulk flowing to Lebanon, which has long served as a conduit for Syrian finances.
But its currency, the Syrian pound, has held strong, staying about the same as before an uprising against President Bashar Al Assad began five months ago.
The disconnect between the teetering economy and the stable currency, which remains vital for keeping the country's urban merchant class a pillar of support for the regime, has baffled some observers and led to speculation about possible influxes of cash.
"You have the collapse of exports and the collapse of foreign direct investment," said a Western diplomat in Beirut who closely tracks the Syrian economy and spoke on condition of anonymity. "Given the fact that the currency has not collapsed, the indications are that money is coming in. No one knows from where, or how much."
Few indicators
Syria's inner workings are among the most opaque in the world. Bankers and economists attempt to draw an overall picture based on the few indicators that appear reliable in a heavily state-dominated economy.
"The problem is, what are the numbers?" said a chief economist with a Lebanese bank that has extensive business in Syria. He spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of putting colleagues in jeopardy. "I look at their balance sheets, and I cannot understand them."
Many economists and officials agree that, up until the uprising began, Syria's prospects were relatively good, with many predicting a banner year for the country thanks to an uptick in tourism, investment from Iran and the Arabian Peninsula kingdoms, and increased trade with Turkey. But the political crisis engulfing the country has changed all that.
Syria's tiny Damascus stock market was down 41 per cent during the first seven months of 2011. Its gross domestic product, earlier projected to weather the global economic crisis and grow 3 per cent, will instead probably shrink 5 per cent or more.
Tourism, which accounted for $4 billion (Dh14.68 billion) annually, or 12 per cent of its economy, has collapsed. What's more, a flood of cash appears to have poured from the country.
According to a report issued by the Byblos Bank, headquartered in Beirut, deposits in the Syrian accounts held by Lebanese banks dropped by up to 24 per cent by the end of April.
Meanwhile, despite a political crisis that crippled the government in Lebanon, banks here reported surges in deposits: from $670 million in February to $1.34 billion in March and $1.8 billion in April, though the net increases tapered off in May and June.
Syrian officials have taken steps to stem the outflow, including raising interest rates on savings, lowering rates on lending and adding transaction fees to dollar withdrawals.
The official news agency said on Monday that Syria had barred anyone from exchanging more than $3,000 worth of local money for hard currency without special permission to "put an end to manipulation in the currency market and speculation".
Syria may have also begun drawing on extensive reserves that officials said had reached $17 billion, built up over the decades to keep its currency solid and the merchant class supportive — or at least quiet about the crackdown against the protest movement.
"The mercantile-military arrangement is key to the regime's grip," said Andrew Tabler, an expert on Syria at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and author of the forthcoming In the Lion's Den, about Washington-Damascus relations.
gulfnews : Syrian currency begs for answers about influx of foreign cash