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Swat Peace Deal - The Aftermath

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Statements like these, and historical precedence, quite clearly demonstrate that the Pakistani response was based on legitimate concerns, and not 'hype'
Actually, your response convinces me that although India may have hit a nerve, Pakistan's response was both overblown and unjustified. The decision should have been made on the basis of actual IA deployments, not just "historical precedence", otherwise you end up with World War I: a war that started because the actors mobilized on the basis of "historical precedence" following an assassination, and discovered that once in motion the momentum towards war couldn't be stopped.
 
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Actually, your response convinces me that although India may have hit a nerve, Pakistan's response was both overblown and unjustified. The decision should have been made on the basis of actual IA deployments, not just "historical precedence", otherwise you end up with World War I: a war that started because the actors mobilized on the basis of "historical precedence" following an assassination, and discovered that once in motion the momentum towards war couldn't be stopped.
Barely six years prior to the Mumbai attacks, Pakistan had to deal with a full scale mobilization and threat of war from India, over a much smaller attack, and the same underlying disputes and tensions existed in 2008 as they did in 2002.

Add in the rhetoric from the GoI, the Indian military's new "Cold Start doctrine' to ostensible rectify the flaws of Operation Parakram, primarily the extremely slow pace of mobilization, and the GoP decision was completely justified.

Poor analogies do not change the reality of the environment and very recent history in which the GoP/PA had to take its decisions, and that environment and precedent presented a clear and present threat of aggression from India.
 
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Add in the rhetoric from the GoI, the Indian military's new "Cold Start doctrine' to ostensible rectify the flaws of Operation Parakram, primarily the extremely slow pace of mobilization, and the GoP decision was completely justified.
The mobilizations of 1914 were at least as justified. Pakistan is lucky that the India of today is wiser than the Europe of a century past. The "rhetoric from the GoI" after Mumbai did not, IMO, point to mobilization for war. You're just going to have to live with "Cold Start" for as long as you have nukes. Don't count on America paying Pakistan's tab for India-oriented operations forever. Maybe the Chinese will want to pay for that.
 
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The "rhetoric from the GoI" after Mumbai did not, IMO, point to mobilization for war.
Pakistan couldn't take that chance given what happened in 2002, or 'Cold Start'.
Don't count on America paying Pakistan's tab for India-oriented operations forever.

The 'Tab' is only an issue because of events largely out of Pakistan's control, in which the US has a prominent stake.

The Chinese have little to do in this scenario.
 
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Ex-Minister Ameer Muqam’s house blown up

Wednesday, April 01, 2009

PESHAWAR: Armed Taliban blown up house of Ex-Federal Minister Ameer Muqam.

Earlier, gunmen seized the house of Ameer Muqam in Bahrain, which was later blown up with explosives.

According to sources, Ameer Muqam and his family members were not present in the house when gunmen stormed the house, however, two servants of Ameer Muqam were forced to flee from the scene by armed men.

Ameer Muqam said it was a group of 60 to 70 local Taliban. He said restoration of peace in Swat seems difficult as gunmen are now started grabbing houses. Ex minister said he will discuss the issue with local administration.
 
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Attacks on girls’ schools jeopardizes Pakistan’s future, says UNESCO chief

1 April 2009 – The future of all of Pakistan is being endangered by ongoing threats to girls’ education in the country’s north, the head of the United Nations Educational, Cultural and Scientific Organization (UNESCO) said today.
For months, there have been attacks on schools, teachers and students, with girls’ educational institutes being singled out for attack in the Swat district of Pakistan’s North West Frontier Province (NWFP), UNESCO Director General Koïchiro Matsuura noted, with both the Government and the Taliban having set up military posts in school buildings.

Last year, over 150 schools – two-thirds of which were girls’ schools – were destroyed by the Taliban and their allies in the NWFP. In the Swat Valley, the Taliban decreed in December 2008 that all girls’ educational facilities must close their doors by 15 January 2009, adding that they would attack schoolgirls and their schools after the deadline.

“Hostage-taking is never acceptable,” he said. “But when the hostages are schoolboys and schools girls, the situation is even more shocking. The future of an entire country is taken hostage through its education system.”

In February, a ceasefire was signed between the Pakistani Government and the main Taliban group in the region, known as the TTP, which said that girls could theoretically return to school.

In spite of that agreement, “fear still reigns,” with many parents still refusing to send their daughters to school and teachers having fled the region in recent weeks, Mr. Matsuura said.

Last month, there was a suicide attack on a girls’ school in Baluchistan, in eastern Pakistan.

To reassure frightened parents and teachers, any agreement must reflect the Government’s commitment to the goals of ‘Education for All,’ including facilitating girls’ access to education, Mr. Matsuura stressed.

“A strong signal must be sent, so that everyone can once more benefit from education, which is a determining factor for their future and for the future of the country,” he declared.
 
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Taliban attacks, establishes control over emerald mine in NWFP

Apr 2nd, 2009

Islamabad, Apr.2 (ANI): The Taliban has taken over the Gojaro Kalay emerald mine in Shangla in the North West Frontier Province (NWFP).

According to sources, more than 70 Taliban attacked the mine on Wednesday and took over the control of mining operations there.

Locals have confirmed the report, however, the district coordination officer and the district police officer denied any such activity in the region.

The Mineral Licensing Director of the area, Shakirullah also confirmed the report, and said he has information about the mine being taken over by the Taliban.


The mine was leased to an American firm, Luxury International, for 40 million rupees per year, but the company recently scrapped the deal because of deteriorating security conditions in Pakistan, The Daily Times reported.

Earlier, a pact between the Pakistan Government and the Tehreek-e-Nafaz-e-Shariat-e-Mohammadi (TNSM), a Pakistani militant organisation with Wahabi and Deobandi leanings, allowed the Taliban to take control of emerald mines in the Swat Valley too.

The mines, along with the Panjshir mines in Afghanistan, hold the largest known deposits of emeralds in South Asia. (ANI)
 
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Take the chance of an Indian attack on Pakistan, under whatever guise, and the answer to your second question should be self evident.

Pakistan can never take that chance and you guys are going off topic.
 
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Danger in Dir

Thursday, April 02, 2009

The situation in Dir remains tense, three days after a clash between militants and police resulted in five deaths. The police had been attempting to rescue a bank officer kidnapped by the militants. The district police officer and a former nazim were among those killed. There is, as yet, no clue as to the safety of the bank official; we do not know if he is dead or alive.

There are some especially dangerous dimensions to this situation. Reports from Lower Dir, a district that lies adjacent to Swat, say there has been a distinct increase in militant activity in the area since the peace deal was reached in Swat. The implication is that militants from Swat may have now drifted into Dir, seeking new territory to conquer in their quest to take control of all they can. The fact that the leader of the TNSM, Sufi Mohammad, belongs to Dir adds to the risks. He has been present in the area for some days but insists this is merely a recreational visit. It is though not difficult to imagine a situation in which militants at their meetings contemplate repeating the tale of their conquest in Swat in other tracts of NWFP. After all they have emerged victorious in Swat, forcing the authorities to bow down to them. It can only be expected that they will, buoyed by this triumph, be eager to repeat the experiment elsewhere.

People in Dir have, in the past, made a valiant effort to push militants out of their villages and towns. The attacks on schools for girls in Dir, apparently carried out by militants from Swat, have been greeted with anger by communities who had struggled hard to bring education to their remote district. The situation unfolding now has given rise to similar sentiments. A strike to protest the kidnapping of the bank official has been held across upper and lower Dir. But the latest sequence of events goes only to show how dark the shadows of militancy that hang over Dir really are. It seems quite clear that the forces that rampaged through Swat, creating terror and fear as they enforced their arcane version of Islam, are now eager to do the same in Dir. It is time the provincial government roused itself from its slumber, gave up its pretence that all is well in Swat and began a real effort to tackle the militants who have in Dir once more proved just how deadly they can be.
 
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The flawed Swat deal By Gul Bukhari

Thursday, 02 Apr

THE Swat situation has yet again reached animpasse with Sufi Mohammad, the leader of the Tehrik Nifaz-i-Shariat Mohammadi(TNSM), instituting qazi courts outside the existing legal framework and appointing qazis at his own discretion. But the government insists that the legal framework consisting of the present infrastructure and judges should be used for issuing Sharia-compliant decisions.

Some weeks ago, the Awami National Party-led government in the NWFP had negotiated a peace deal with Sufi Mohammad, offering to implement Sharia in the Swat and Malakand Divisions. In return, the government wanted the TNSM head to persuade the head of Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan,Maulana Fazlullah, the Swat-based compatriot of Baitullah Mehsud, to cease militancy.

This turn of events is not surprising — it was likely from day one. When the government negotiated the said deal with theTaliban of Swat through the TNSM, it was evident that it was doing so from aposition of weakness and under duress.

There is enough evidence to indicate that the negotiators from the government’s side had only intended cosmetic changes such as renaming the existing courts as qazi courts. Whether they thought they would succeed in duping the Taliban, or whether they meant to fool the publicinto thinking that they were great strategists and would achieve peace with out giving anything away is anyone’s guess.

Much more likely is that they knew they wouldn’t bamboozle anyone in the end, but were just brushing the problem under the carpet and buying time.

That would be a fine tactic, were there acomprehensive plan to be put into action after the expiry of time thus bought.Unfortunately, that was not the case; there was no plan and the Zardari-led government continues to muddle through, believing that different speeches containing contradictory claims meant for different audiences would continue to push the explosion of the time bomb indefinitely into the future. If only life was that simple.

The very basis of any negotiations with an armed movement is flawed. The state ceding the rights of a section of the population and leaving them defenceless against the terror and oppression offreelance fascists, used to be seen as cowardice, and not the attainment of peace. If anyone doubts that tomorrow the rest of the country will not be held hostage to the same terror that the Swatis live under, he/she is living in afool’s paradise. Either that or such people already have plans in place to leave the sinking ship when the time comes.

To begin with, how are the TTP or TNSM thelegitimate representatives of the Swatis or the people of any other area? If itis a question of gun-power then the government must immediately admit that itis bowing to their might, not the extent of their representativeness. If, on theother hand, it is claimed that the majority of the Swati people want what theTTP demands, then let’s have proof of it.

Invite the TTP (or for that matter anyother champion of faith) to form a political party with a published manifestoand contest elections. That should put to rest for the next few years at least the question as to whether or not it represents popular sentiment, albeit of aregion or province. If it does, a political way forward should not be unachievable.

But if it does not, then at least we wouldbe able to come clean about whether we are disenfranchising an entire sectionof the population by imposing an undefined penal code on them or simplysurrendering to armed criminals and leaving the people of Swat to fend forthemselves against oppression of the worst kind.

It’s very important to be cognisant of the fact that Sharia, for all practical purposes, is not a defined penal code. No two opinions within Pakistan on the practical ramifications of implementing Sharia are the same. Even proponents of the ‘peace deal’ denounce the models in place in Saudi Arabia, Iran and previously in Afghanistan.

In the absence of any existing model, such proponents advocate ‘real’ Sharia interpretations of which there are as many as the individuals propounding them. It remains a nebulous idea of utopia on earth. How can the imposition of an amorphous ideal, with no commondenominators for the countless opinions on it, be a solution?

Let the proponents define Sharia, build aconsensus of what it might entail into a detailed penal code and then take avote on it.

It’s time for intellectual honesty — we must call for the TTP, or any other movement that claims to speak on behalf of the people, to enter the political franchise and contest elections. This must be considered as a serious option.

Either they will demonstrate a constituency and emerge as a legitimate political entity to be negotiated with, or they will not. In the latter case, if ‘peace deals’ with them continue to be pursued, atleast it would be morally more courageous to admit to caving in to terrorists than to keep pretending that they are representatives of the popular will.
 
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We have had useless speeches from our leaders in the past but i want to see a two hour long speech by our president or prime minister exposing the facts and the organized massacre carried out by TTP and their associated groups and leaders.
They should declare a Jihad against these terrorist organizations and ask all people to stop any dealing with them.
Press should be warned not to air such terrorist organizations interviews etc.

We should be told what the government intends to do and to what extend will it go to save people from these terrorists.
This is needed to make all Pakistanis realize the trouble we are in and what we need to do.

An open WAR needs to be declared on TTP because regardless of any peace agreement their barbarism is not being curtailed.
 
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They should declare a Jihad against these terrorist organizations and ask all people to stop any dealing with them.

An open WAR needs to be declared on TTP because regardless of any peace agreement their barbarism is not being curtailed.

Who has the authority to call a "jihad" in Pakistan? If the society wants to go to war againist the TTP (and like-minded groups) and declare it a "jihad", who would have to declare it? I mean, doesn't jihad have to be declared by religious authorities? Are the mainstrean Pakistani religious authorities now against the TTP? Are the "Islamic" political parties now against the TTP?
 
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