Disappointment ?
they were never taken out, Musharraf was just waiting for the right moment to revive them and they were revived.
Excellent point -- and let me propose this -- let us come up with what journalists and scholars have said on this subject -- and let's also question their analysis (for example Carlotta Gall in her book says -- she's not trying to be fair)
At a high level:
1. If you read Anand Gopal's work -- he outlines in great detail how the Haqqanis had gotten out of the militancy business.
2. You will find numerous sources that talk about how the Taliban went home and Mullah Omar became a Madrassa teacher -- When push came to shove he consulted a friend who had a vision of Prophet Mohammad where the prophet Mohammad's beard went white with light. He then took up arms again.
3. Further if you count how many top level Taliban the GoP arrested and handed over to the US -- you will see that they decimated the upper echelon of the Taliban
4. So you we can show by collecting these resources that Mollah Omar, Jalaluddin Haqqani were not hidden in some ISI bunker to be used on D-Day -- they went back to their lives -- Omar to a very simple life.
Again this is not me saying it but journalists and scholars who are authorities on the subject.
In summary the Taliban project was reactivated by the GHQ circa 2005(?) -- it took that long because I suspect the Pakistanis were Shellshocked by Afghan behavior. Abdullah Abdullah's arrogance is legendary in GHQ circles -- again what janabe CEO CEO does not understand is that dignified does not mean dressing up in expensive Italian suites and spending two hours in the morning getting makeup done but putting the sweat and blood in -- which the GHQ has done. The GHQ may not be the smarted boys in the room but you have to give them credit: they've worked hard at their project.
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Since Pakistan won't get of the high horse, the question is what Afghanistan can do, in summary it needs to continue to strengthen its security forces, build her institutions, focus on its economy and education, find alternative routes for business, strengthen its regional and international relations to name a few. Until 2020 there is a clear cut commitment both in terms of money and training from the International community and I am confident with the right reforms and this commitment will continue for the years to come.
My dear the baseline is that the Afghan government cannot agree with the Pakistani government to build 1 border gate.
Further: Afghanistan cannot change the tyranny of geography.
Some notes and these are not new -- again I feel we're repeating ourselves:
1. continue to strengthen its security forces
What does that mean -- buying 4 helicopters?
It means to have a sustainable force that can be payed for by your own Exchequer
There is no way that Afghanistan can fund the current ANSF at its levels in 20 years by itself
Even the West agrees with that. The idea is to cut the size down on a peace settlement
The sustainable level of the ANSF is what was proposed in 2003 -- an army of 64,000 I believe or there abouts
2. build her institutions,
Again how
This requires security -- political cohesion
Ghani himself is a cancer patient -- let's say he does not win the next election or dies -- who is there after him -- nobody
Pakistani's institutions are in decline some would say -- do you think Afghanistan can build its institutions while fighting proxies and a belligerent neighbor?
If you are counting on a miracle maybe -- but that's not how I count my chickens
3. focus on its economy
Again how?
Mining: 20 years away from a cold peace
Industrial production? how -- Afghanistan does not have the skill base and again security
Service sector? ATT will open call centers in Afghanistan? come on get real.
The labor situation is so dire that Afghanistan has to import skilled labor from Pakistan. 80,000 skilled Pakistanis work in Afghanistan: electricians, plumber, tilers, mason -- we're not even talking engineers or doctors here. Again get real.
Connectedness? without Pakistan there is no connectedness -- nobody is going to connect a country wracked by Taliban violence.
What Ghani sab did not say before he shut down Paksitan's access to CARs is that that
Pakistani transit traffic is minimal -- who wants to drive through Afghanistan?
Further -- try dealing with the Iranians -- you can see how connected Iran is with Turkey or Pakistan ;-)
the Indians are going to give just enough "drugs" to Afghans so the pot keeps boiling -- they are not stupid to put good money after bad. A few billion dollars is nothing for India (to keep Pakistan occupied) yet it has no real impact on the outcome for Afghanistan.
There is no cohesive plan to revive Afghan economy -- show me one
4. education
This is probably harder than anything else -- you need good teachers and money for education
Look how poor Pakistan does and it has a decent Army
Everything requires money and Afghanistan has none
Actually if you look at it -- the 5 billion for ANSF is an opportunity cost -- a fraction could have been spent on education
5. Until 2020 there is a clear cut commitment
There is no such thing. The major non-NATO ally Pakistan will soon get zilch despite promises not to be abandoned this time -- Money in the West is not free taxpayers pay it -- and they ask the question why am I paying for a corrupt country when my child cannot go to school.
$5 billion dollars per year -- that's more than Israel gets -- any Afghan who's counting on that to being around for long clearly has not studied history
6. International community
Do you know what the Israeli motto is: (yes never again but in not the one I'm referring to) that they cannot rely on anybody
The International community is a mirage that Afghans like to quote
Look at the troubles the US is in -- do you think we like given you our tax dollars? I can connect you with friends of mine who work in primary education. In poor neighborhoods -- you know what the problem is -- that a significant percentage of the class comes in hungry -- parents cannot feed them so the school system has to feed them. A hungry child cannot learn.
7. On the other hand Pakistan through her proxies will be finding it difficult to continue the same path provided the above exercise is undertaken by the NUG.
A. Well my argument is that a resource, cash, people, peace strapped NUG cannot do anything -- hey even a first would country cannot overcome such challenges.
B. Look at Lebanon which is a highly educated populace (you will find Lebanese on the faculties of top US schools, MIT, Stanford, Harvard, etc.), they are cosmopolitan, have a strong diaspora (unlike Afghans), are not land locked -- they had to give Hizbollah a share in the government -- and their backer Iran does not even share a border or language or culture with Lebanon. You think the stunted Afghan nation can put up with Pakistan who shared geography, language, culture and is next door and has 40 years experience of running an insurgency in Afghanistan? I mean be realistic
If you want to see what can be done with Proxies -- look at what Iran has done. The have been successful in their geopolitical aims in Syria, Yemen, Lebanon and Iraq. Conversely Pakistan is dealing with just Afghanistan -- I mean brother
@A-Team which universe do Afghans live in??
8. I think this summer has been a good example of how the ANSF alone with the very little assistance from the international forces has been on the offensive and with the exception of the few remote districts only been taken for an hour or so with no strategic implications has been in the driving seat.
My dear, perhaps we live in separate universes but if my reading of the news that comes out on Afghanistan is correct, Afghanistan has lost another 5% of the areas under Afghan control in 4 months ?!!??! -- the casualty rate of ANSF is unsustainable. If you listen to the last video I posted the experts: Vanda Felbab, General John Allen and Bruce Reidel (all harsh critics of Pakistan) said that the Afghan Army almost fractured along ethnic lines had a coup happened -- this is how fragile ANSF is. Do you think it a joke to build an Army -- a General, a bonafide General -- not Gen Wardak or Gen Raziq -- takes roughly 40 years of experience, training, weeding out to form one. 2020 is 4 years away. the Afghan Generals are not fighting the Taliban they are fighting the GHQ. To build generals of that caliber (admittedly not very high) is a 70 year project for Afghanistan.
9. Yes Generals and soldiers will be martyred but hey this is the price that the Afghan gov is willing to pay, but overall in the strategic calculus Afghans have the time and Pakistan through her proxies has the watches.
No this is the price that the Afghan elites are willing to pay: people like you who can afford to travel first class on Emirates to the UK when the shit hits the fan -- or Ghani sab who's daughter is an Artist in Brooklyn, whose son is a Professor at U Washington and whose wife is Lebanese. This is not new -- this is 40 years old and that is why the Afghan Army has fractured several times (Ahmed Rashid). Actually it is even older than that: Kalakani/Amanullah episode was precisely this the elite who are disconnected from Afghanistan vs the common Afghan.
The best hope for Afghanistan is to work out a political contract/compact with Pakistan: ask for some things, give up somethings. If Pakistan ask for control over Afghan foreign policy -- ask for some control of Pakistani foreign policy and so forth. Pakistanis are very poor negotiators if you look at history.
