Surprised, shocked, worried: Experts react as India's GDP growth tumbles to 5%

[letsrock]

You can keep guessing.
I put my estimate in the 2.8 to 3 trillion ballpark. Which is obviously closer to the suggested value according to your quoted link.
Even at lower rates of growth, like say 5 percent, gdp will double in less than 15 years.

i think there is something off with your brain - dont worry though it is normal bhakth condition. How does a figure change from 2.6 trillion in March to 2.9 trillion by august (an astouding 10 plus percent increase ?). And what is my suggested value as per you. Its really annoying to discuss with a bhatk. they neither come with facts nor logic.

 

[d00od00o]

So, the real growth rate is closer to 3%. India needs double-digit growth to generate enough jobs for young people who are entering the work force. The demographic dividend is quickly turning into a demographic time bomb. Time is running out.

 

[prashantazazel]

i think there is something off with your brain - dont worry though it is normal bhakth condition. How does a figure change from 2.6 trillion in March to 2.9 trillion by august (an astouding 10 plus percent increase ?). And what is my suggested value as per you. Its really annoying to discuss with a bhatk. they neither come with facts nor logic.

You have comprehension issues. Plus, it looks like you don't read your own posts. I will make it simple for you.

The figure is 2.71 or 2.72 trillion for the last quarter march 2019--as you said(also according to IMF and all) .
The growth for the next quarter was 5 percent.
It is 5 months past that date now.
Use a calculator and you will get either 2.77 or 2.78 trillion.

This is close to the lower value of the range I gave(2.8 - 3trillion).

It is hard to understand whether you are worse at mathematics or comprehension in general.


But then, you called me a Bhakt- despite me criticising the conservative policies of the government. At least, get your insults right.

 

[letsrock]

You have comprehension issues. Plus, it looks like you don't read your own posts. I will make it simple for you.

The figure is 2.71 or 2.72 trillion for the last quarter march 2019--as you said(also according to IMF and all) .
The growth for the next quarter was 5 percent.
It is 5 months past that date now.
Use a calculator and you will get either 2.77 or 2.78 trillion.

This is close to the lower value of the range I gave(2.8 - 3trillion).

It is hard to understand whether you are worse at mathematics or comprehension in general.


But then, you called me a Bhakt- despite me criticising the conservative policies of the government. At least, get your insults right.

You have comprehension issues. Plus, it looks like you don't read your own posts. I will make it simple for you.

The figure is 2.71 or 2.72 trillion for the last quarter march 2019--as you said(also according to IMF and all) .
The growth for the next quarter was 5 percent.
It is 5 months past that date now.
Use a calculator and you will get either 2.77 or 2.78 trillion.

This is close to the lower value of the range I gave(2.8 - 3trillion).

It is hard to understand whether you are worse at mathematics or comprehension in general.


But then, you called me a Bhakt- despite me criticising the conservative policies of the government. At least, get your insults right.

I have comprehension issues ? you cant even read straight a few lines. And does not understand what 5 percent growth means. And you lash out at me. Ofcourse not only bhakth many "indians" especially indians who justify the rouge state of india act retarded.
First off I said GDP for entire year is 2.6 trillion so i dont know whether it is an eye ailment or brain ailment that you keep quoting 2.7. Even if one takes 2.7 trillion. The 5 percent growth for quarter ending in june 2019 is one over june 2018 not over the 2.7 trillion - it is actually one fourth of 2.7 trillion becuase its a quarter after all. And acutally the gdp during this quarter is less (in absolute sense).
Its all too taxing for you i suppose.

 

[Flight of falcon]

For those who can read Urdu excellent article. India’s growth rate is close to zero. Very good analysis. Written by an Indian.

https://www.bbc.com/urdu/regional-49548150

 

[Longhorn]

For those who can read Urdu excellent article. India’s growth rate is close to zero. Very good analysis. Written by an Indian.

https://www.bbc.com/urdu/regional-49548150

The same article in English.

Image copyrightGETTY IMAGES
Image caption'If the growth rate of the unorganized sector is declining then it would be wrong to assume that the unorganized sector is developing at the pace of the organized sector'
Five quarters (15 months) ago, India's economy was growing at eight per cent, which has fallen to five per cent now and that has not happened suddenly.

One more thing I would like to mention is that it is less than five percent as quarterly growth rate statistics are organized and corporate based.

It does not fully cover the unorganized sector of the domestic economy and it is assumed that the unorganized sector is also developing at the same pace as the organized sector.

But there are reports of economic slowdown from all around. In Ludhiana, unorganized sectors associated with industries such as bicycles and shoes in Agra have closed.

Also read

Why does India want to borrow from the global market?

How true is India's claims for economic growth?

Why the Modi government is forced to take billions of dollars from the RBI?

If the growth rate of the unorganized sector is declining then it would be wrong to assume that the unorganized sector is developing at the pace of the organized sector.

In the unorganized sector of India, 94% of the people work where 45% of the production is done. If 94% of the people work and there are decreasing production and employment, then the demand decreases.

Demand had only begun after 'de monetisation'. Then after eight months the effects of GST started to appear and then the effects of NPA (non-performing assets) of the banks started to appear. And after all, the impact of the crisis on non-banking financial companies.

That is, in three years, the economy has experienced three major shocks which have led to unemployment. CMI data shows that the number of employees in the country was 45 million, which has dropped to 41 million.

Image copyrightGETTY IMAGES
Image caption: India's finance minister have several announcements to improve the economy recently
This means that four million people have lost their jobs or have become unemployed. When the revenue of such a large portion decreases, the demand will obviously decrease. When demand is low, consumer capacity will decrease and investment will decrease when consumer capacity is reduced.

Why did the demand decrease?
The investment rate in our economy was the highest in 2012-13. At that time the investment rate was growing at 37% and today it has been less than 30%.

Unless investment increases, growth does not increase.

I think the problem started with the unorganized sector and now it is slowly affecting the organized sector as well. For example, you can look at automobile and FMCG fields.

You may have heard of a drop in demand for parley g biscuits. This is a well-organized department that is used by people in the unorganized sector. When the revenue of the unorganized sector is low, demand will automatically decrease. This is the case with FMCG.

Image copyrightGETTY IMAGES
Image caption Theeffects of slowdown on the economy are beginning to appear first on the unorganized sector
The reality of the official data
If our economy is growing at a rate of six or five percent, that's a good pace. Even then, why consumption was decreasing it should increase. Investment should also have increased at the pace of five per cent.

When consumption is reduced, investment is not increasing, which shows that the economic growth rate is not five, six or seven percent, but it is growing at zero percent because it is irregular. Sector statistics are not included.

The day you add the unstructured sector stats shows that the growth rate is zero or one percent. Unstructured sector statistics are collected once every five years. In the meantime it is understood that the unorganized sector is developing at the same pace as the organized sector.

This speculation was fine even before the demonetization, but it did have a big impact later on. This has had its first impact on the unorganized sectors.

This method of incorporating unorganized sector growth estimates into GDP data after November 9, 2016 is incorrect.

It is also said that the Indian economy is in recession. According to official data, the economy is not going through a recession but a slowdown. When growth rates are negative, this situation is considered as recession.

But if the data presented by the government is included in the unstructured sector statistics, the Indian economy is in recession.

Image copyrightGETTY IMAGES
Image captionA nationwide strike was organized in opposition to the GST
The integration of GST and banks
The unorganized sector was badly affected after the demonetization or closure of notes. The GST was then implemented. Although GST does not apply to unorganized sectors.

GST has had an impact on the organized sector. Over the last two and a half years since the implementation of GST, more than 1,400 changes have been made. This created a lot of confusion among the people in the organized sector.

People are not able to enter GST. About 1.2 million people have registered for GST, but only 70 million people pay GST and only 20% of annual returns are filed.

As a result, the GST as a whole has suffered tremendous damage to the economy.

The problem starts with the unorganized sector and the organized sector is no exception. The slowdown in the economy has slowed the government's tax collection. Last year, GST was reduced by 80,000 crores and direct tax was also reduced.

Overall, the state exchequer suffered a loss of Rs 1.6 lakh crore. When the government's income declined, its expenses decreased. When costs are low, recession will be even higher.

Now, it is being said that the integration of banks will strengthen the economy. But this is wrong. The impact of the merger of banks will be seen five to ten years later. It will not have immediate effect.

Image copyrightGETTY IMAGES
Image caption'Government statements make it clear that the economy has weakened and packages are being announced one after another'
Government acknowledges
Government statements make it clear that it has acknowledged that the economy has weakened and packages are being announced one after another. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is also announcing.

They are not talking about recession right now but will gradually start talking about recession when the unorganized sector data is added.

RBI has released a package of Rs 1.76 lakh crore. It will also be used for the organized sector. No package has been announced for the unorganized sector. No package increase has been announced.

Where the problem started, the government is not paying attention to these areas. Until the package is announced for these fields, no improvement will be seen.

( Interview with BBC Hindi correspondent Sandeep Rai )

 

[prashantazazel]

I have comprehension issues ? you cant even read straight a few lines. And does not understand what 5 percent growth means. And you lash out at me. Ofcourse not only bhakth many "indians" especially indians who justify the rouge state of india act retarded.
First off I said GDP for entire year is 2.6 trillion so i dont know whether it is an eye ailment or brain ailment that you keep quoting 2.7. Even if one takes 2.7 trillion. The 5 percent growth for quarter ending in june 2019 is one over june 2018 not over the 2.7 trillion - it is actually one fourth of 2.7 trillion becuase its a quarter after all. And acutally the gdp during this quarter is less (in absolute sense).
Its all too taxing for you i suppose.

Don't delete your comments. It's funny.
Some basic mathematics for you.
2.71 trillion at end of March .
5 months have passed since then.
Assuming 5 percent annual growth over thus period (which translates to 5/12 per cent per month)
Now calculate this
Current gdp= 2.71+ 5 x (5/12 x 2.71)=2.77 trillion dollars.


Anyhow, I have seen your other posts. You are not very good at trolling. Work on your intellectual capacity. It will help you in the long run.

 

[letsrock]

Don't delete your comments. It's funny.
Some basic mathematics for you.
2.71 trillion at end of March .
5 months have passed since then.
Assuming 5 percent annual growth over thus period (which translates to 5/12 per cent per month)
Now calculate this
Current gdp= 2.71+ 5 x (5/12 x 2.71)=2.77 trillion dollars.


Anyhow, I have seen your other posts. You are not very good at trolling. Work on your intellectual capacity. It will help you in the long run.

Really ? there is nothing more frustration than trying to knock sense in to a mouthy indian who is amazingly ignorant but nevertheless very cocky and arrogant. I will give it one more try to knock some sense in to that dudderhead.
1) GDP is calculated over a period of time not a snapshot as of September 1st which is what your tried to do with your 5 month nonsense
2) GDP figures must be released by some body and you dont extrapolate to this date using the dumb formula that you did. RBI released till june 30th 2019. Thats the latest time frame you can talk about.
3) Annual GDP figures are typically for a given dates. In india it is from April 1st to mar 31 of next year. You dont do annual gdp for every quarter even though you can calculate.
4) And if you want to calculate the GDP across last 12 months for any quarter - the way you do it is arithmetically add up GDP figures already available or released for last 4 quarters. Not some dumb math formula.

got it ?

 

[GumNaam]

Pakistan should test another SSM and then push india's gdp down to -5% by saying that we tested a MIRV missile that can't be detected by any radar until it's too late...watch all the investors leave like THIS...

 

[prashantazazel]

Really ? there is nothing more frustration than trying to knock sense in to a mouthy indian who is amazingly ignorant but nevertheless very cocky and arrogant. I will give it one more try to knock some sense in to that dudderhead.
1) GDP is calculated over a period of time not a snapshot as of September 1st which is what your tried to do with your 5 month nonsense
2) GDP figures must be released by some body and you dont extrapolate to this date using the dumb formula that you did. RBI released till june 30th 2019. Thats the latest time frame you can talk about.
3) Annual GDP figures are typically for a given dates. In india it is from April 1st to mar 31 of next year. You dont do annual gdp for every quarter even though you can calculate.
4) And if you want to calculate the GDP across last 12 months for any quarter - the way you do it is arithmetically add up GDP figures already available or released for last 4 quarters. Not some dumb math formula.

got it ?

So you think the gdp magically increases by the annual percentage on the last day of the financial year?

Don't embarrass yourself.

 

[letsrock]

So you think the gdp magically increases by the annual percentage on the last day of the financial year?

Don't embarrass yourself.

It is measures and released by some organization like RBI you pathetic simpleton. The percentage figure is derived once the data is compiled. No one takes a percetage figures and calculates a speculative gdp number for future like you did. sheeeesh.

 

[CIA Mole]

Once they run out of water it will be 0%

 

[baajey]

2008 was an example.

a bad example.
do you think, in 2008, our economy was as integrated/dependent to the world economy as it is today.

 

[Dash]

All the pakistani Economic experts having a good time need to know that India was growing @ 8%+ a year. Its a global slowdown and a behaviorial shift for consumers makeing certain changes in economy world wide.

Please come back when we hit 7%+ in a years time.

in 5 months the gdp will increase by 10 percent ? which crazy world do you live in. by the way I have some news it actually decreased Q on Q. The annual growth is only 5% on 2018 june. compared to quarter ending mar 2019 it actually decresed.
Yes BD surpassing implies India needs to be breaken up for prospertity. Agreed then.

Please spare us the quarter knowledge sourced from Google. The dynamics of economy are not our cup of tea.

 

[Novice09]

Economies go through periods of low growth. Nothing special about this.
Most countries have slowed down. Will take a couple of years to bounce back from this.

1. Banks are not issuing new loans as easily as earlier... Neither they are restructuring the old loans... I was not able to EXPAND my operations due to lack of funds...

2. GST AND ITS CONSTANTLY CHANGING RULES AND FORMS... pain in a$$...
Just imagine... your prime focus is... a. inserting HSN codes is all OLD bills... b. calling those vendors who have not uploaded details on portal... c. Spending good amount of time with your CA to understand NEW CHANGES... every month...
SALES... will focus on it once GSTR 9 is submitted accurately...

3. Government is holding the payments... post elections things have changed drastically... now, they are not releasing funds... babus are crying about lack of funds... and it is followed by 1 and 2... private parties are same as earlier...

ALSO, don't forget... receiving notices for mismatch of INR 100... GST... ahhh

All the pakistani Economic experts having a good time need to know that India was growing @ 8%+ a year. Its a global slowdown and a behaviorial shift for consumers makeing certain changes in economy world wide.
Please come back when we hit 7%+ in a years time.
Please spare us the quarter knowledge sourced from Google. The dynamics of economy are not our cup of tea.

Some of the economic experts on this forum don't know the difference between loan and investments... so we can avoid them...

The real issue for this decline is...
1. NPAa and bad loans... UPA was ready to bring Indian economy back to pre 91 era...
2. Global slowdown and US-China Trade war...

and if my friend from IRS is right... demonetization was done to provide liquidity to the banks... once NPA, frauds and bad loan picture was presented to the NDA government... NOTING ELSE...