SUBMARINE PURCHASE: Dhaka finalises deals with Beijing

[Ishraq]

theres something fishy with the deal
why would it take 6 years for 2 old subs to be delivered?I think bangladesh has a another plan that it is hiding from the media

 

[Ideas_R_Bulletproof]

Correct it...

Yeah，a recent rumor from Chinese forum said originally your government showed more interest in S20, and have talked with CSIC for several times, but finally they choose two Type 035G. Maybe still it is the budget issue.

well, budget may be the issue.... but that still doesn't properly describe why an off-the-shelf submarine would require 5 years to deliver.... training would obviously require a submarine... and justifies the earliest delivery.... so, that the training can start!..... if you say, its more difficult to operate subs, there can always be the option to have Chinese instructors on board, as long as BN crew are not fully accustomed with the system.... I still believe the delivery date quoted (2019) is wrong!

 

[Ra'ad]

BN is in my opinion more like a symbolic force than a fighting oriented force. It won't be stepping in any conflict with anyone anytime soon so chill. But still Bangladesh needs to boost up its economy.

 

[kalu_miah]

Correct it...

Yeah，a recent rumor from Chinese forum said originally your government showed more interest in S20, and have talked with CSIC for several times, but finally they choose two Type 035G. Maybe still it is the budget issue.

How much would be the cost of an S20 with AIP? I think its about $250 million (200+50 for AIP), and it is just $50 million more than the $200 million budget. We could get a brand new state of the art S20 that will be useful for 40 years, instead of two old ones, which will have to be scrapped in about 15 years, by the time we get it after a refit (the cause for the delay). The newest Type 035G was made in 1996, already 18 years old.

The only explanation is that it is easier to skim money for % commission on the old ones. I think they are not worth $100 million a piece, may be $75 million at the most, even after a minimal refit. So that gives the current govt. politicians a way to skim off about $50 million from the deal, not bad.

 

[aliaselin]

How much would be the cost of an S20 with AIP? I think its about $250 million (200+50 for AIP), and it is just $50 million more than the $200 million budget. We could get a brand new state of the art S20 that will be useful for 40 years, instead of two old ones, which will have to be scrapped in about 15 years, by the time we get it after a refit (the cause for the delay). The newest Type 035G was made in 1996, already 18 years old.

The only explanation is that it is easier to skim money for % commission on the old ones. I think they are not worth $100 million a piece, may be $75 million at the most, even after a minimal refit. So that gives the current govt. politicians a way to skim off about $50 million from the deal, not bad.

Yes，my estimation price for S20 is the same as you - 250 million dollars around for the AIP version.

 

[UKBengali]

How much would be the cost of an S20 with AIP? I think its about $250 million (200+50 for AIP), and it is just $50 million more than the $200 million budget. We could get a brand new state of the art S20 that will be useful for 40 years, instead of two old ones, which will have to be scrapped in about 15 years, by the time we get it after a refit (the cause for the delay). The newest Type 035G was made in 1996, already 18 years old.

The only explanation is that it is easier to skim money for % commission on the old ones. I think they are not worth $100 million a piece, may be $75 million at the most, even after a minimal refit. So that gives the current govt. politicians a way to skim off about $50 million from the deal, not bad.

BD HAS the money to purchase 1 billion dollars worth of submarines by 2019 if it wanted to.

Currently BD has an economy of over 150 billion dollars that is growing at over 6% a year. This and the expected increase of government spending from the current 16% of GDP to nearly 20% by 2019 means that sufficient funds will be available to pay this amount by 2019, which would mean 200 million dollars a year over 5 years.

I think that BD did not go for a force of 4 S-20s as the Indians would not like it.

There is too much evidence now that the Awami League is deliberately keeping the BD armed forces weak. What is the purpose of buying over 30 modern training aircraft and zero modern fighter aircraft?!

 

[kalu_miah]

BD HAS the money to purchase 1 billion dollars worth of submarines by 2019 if it wanted to.

Currently BD has an economy of over 150 billion dollars that is growing at over 6% a year. This and the expected increase of government spending from the current 16% of GDP to nearly 20% by 2019 means that sufficient funds will be available to pay this amount by 2019, which would mean 200 million dollars a year over 5 years.

I think that BD did not go for a force of 4 S-20s as the Indians would not like it.

There is too much evidence now that the Awami League is deliberately keeping the BD armed forces weak. What is the purpose of buying over 30 modern training aircraft and zero modern fighter aircraft?!

Yes, that is another factor and important one at that. Please try to read (if you can read Bengali) all 5 articles I posted in the other thread, how RAW infiltrated the entire Armed forces and controls everything inside and out. So nothing happens in Bangladesh without their consent. And they make sure that Sajeeb Wajed Joy's bank account gets fatter and fatter.

 

[Skies]

BN is in my opinion more like a symbolic force than a fighting oriented force. It won't be stepping in any conflict with anyone anytime soon so chill. But still Bangladesh needs to boost up its economy.

I agree.

 

[Zabaniyah]

theres something fishy with the deal
why would it take 6 years for 2 old subs to be delivered?I think bangladesh has a another plan that it is hiding from the media

Hmm....MiG-29's ring a bell?

This "hiding" from the media is still there. And albeit, a useless and outdated rhetoric.

There is too much evidence now that the Awami League is deliberately keeping the BD armed forces weak. What is the purpose of buying over 30 modern training aircraft and zero modern fighter aircraft?!

You know, I suspected this regarding the air force in the past.

They bought MiG-21's in the 70's. It was good at the time.

And 40 years on, they are still buying the same design with some modern touches. Does that even make sense in light of all the economic progress over the years? Some MiG-29's would have at least made some sense from that perspective. This "stop gap" rhetoric is propaganda right from the beginning.

Another factor we need to take into account is that Bangladesh must be able to secure sensitive technologies. It must win the trust of its suppliers to be given a particular technology to give it an edge over any potential rival in the region. Be they Chinese, or American. And Bangladesh, doesn't have that credibility in spite of retarded rhetoric of "hiding" from the media. Hence, government commitment really does matter in these expensive, complex and sensitive deals. Especially in air force and naval matters.

 

[帅的一匹]

I think the Ming Class Sub BD Navy get will be refit with lots new equipment ti improve it's performance.

 

[UKBengali]

You know, I suspected this regarding the air force in the past.

They bought MiG-21's in the 70's. It was good at the time.

And 40 years on, they are still buying the same design with some modern touches. Does that even make sense in light of all the economic progress over the years? Some MiG-29's would have at least made some sense from that perspective. This "stop gap" rhetoric is propaganda right from the beginning.

The J-7BGI was a really stupid purchase. Which other country in the world that actually has money to buy modern fighters goes for a 60 year-old design and then uses "stop-gap" excuse? None.

150 million dollars of BD taxpayers money that could have been used to buy another 5 Mig-29s went down the drain or that money could have been used to upgrade the existing 8 Mig-29s to modern standards.

The purchase of over 30 modern trainers, still to be 100% confirmed though, also makes no sense.
There is no point in having so many trainers if you do not have any modern fighters that you would need to be trained on! Let us say that BD instead brought 12 trainers, as that is all that would be required for next 5 years, then that would have saved around 300 million dollars.

So, for the air-force it looks like BD has literally wasted 450 million dollars. This 450 million dollars would have been enough to upgrade the 8 Mig-29s and then also have brought another 10-12 Mig-29s. A force of 18-20 Mig-29 SMTs would surely be better than the garbage air-force that BD now has.

Another factor we need to take into account is that Bangladesh must be able to secure sensitive technologies. It must win the trust of its suppliers to be given a particular technology to give it an edge over any potential rival in the region. Be they Chinese, or American. And Bangladesh, doesn't have that credibility in spite of retarded rhetoric of "hiding" from the media. Hence, government commitment really does matter in these expensive, complex and sensitive deals. Especially in air force and naval matters.

I completely agree with you 100% here.

It is now firmly established that BD defence has been outsourced to India, but BD taxpayers are picking up the bill

US is too expensive for BD, Russia too close to India and so China would have been the logical choice for BD to finally build a credible military over the next 10-15 years.

China would have little apprehension selling it's almost first-tier arms to an INDEPENDENTLY minded BD. So systems like Type-054A, J-10B, S-20 would all have become available for purchase this decade.

With the increase in quality of Chinese equipment over time and the bargain basement prices, J-10B costs half the price of the Euro-fighter/Rafale and still have performance close to if not matching their performance, BD had a golden opportunity to use it's scarce resources to build a military that would make India think twice about trying to bully BD. Now with the BD government and maybe military seen to be Indian puppets, even a new BNP-led government may find it hard to persuade the Chinese to allow sales of advanced weapons systems to BD.

The Awami League has really screwed up BD's independence due to it's own selfish interests.

 

[Zabaniyah]

The J-7BGI was a really stupid purchase. Which other country in the world that actually has money to buy modern fighters goes for a 60 year-old design and then uses "stop-gap" excuse? None.

150 million dollars of BD taxpayers money that could have been used to buy another 5 Mig-29s went down the drain or that money could have been used to upgrade the existing 8 Mig-29s to modern standards.

The purchase of over 30 modern trainers, still to be 100% confirmed though, also makes no sense.
There is no point in having so many trainers if you do not have any modern fighters that you would need to be trained on! Let us say that BD instead brought 12 trainers, as that is all that would be required for next 5 years, then that would have saved around 300 million dollars.

So, for the air-force it looks like BD has literally wasted 450 million dollars. This 450 million dollars would have been enough to upgrade the 8 Mig-29s and then also have brought another 10-12 Mig-29s. A force of 18-20 Mig-29 SMTs would surely be better than the garbage air-force that BD now has.

Yeah, the air force is screwed

There are a lot shrewd generals in its military these days. In terms of politics that is.

I completely agree with you 100% here.

It is now firmly established that BD defence has been outsourced to India, but BD taxpayers are picking up the bill

US is too expensive for BD, Russia too close to India and so China would have been the logical choice for BD to finally build a credible military over the next 10-15 years.

China would have little apprehension selling it's almost first-tier arms to an INDEPENDENTLY minded BD. So systems like Type-054A, J-10B, S-20 would all have become available for purchase this decade.

With the increase in quality of Chinese equipment over time and the bargain basement prices, J-10B costs half the price of the Euro-fighter/Rafale and still have performance close to if not matching their performance, BD had a golden opportunity to use it's scarce resources to build a military that would make India think twice about trying to bully BD. Now with the BD government and maybe military seen to be Indian puppets, even a new BNP-led government may find it hard to persuade the Chinese to allow sales of advanced weapons systems to BD.

The Awami League has really screwed up BD's independence due to it's own selfish interests.

[/quote]

Anyone would prefer a system that'd give their country an edge over its neighbor's inventory. Especially given the messy geopolitical reality that Bangladesh is in. A messy neighborhood with almost no security, in short. That's something most Bangladeshis in Bangladesh cannot, or will not acknowledge.

Cost should not be a factor in this case. What matters is an effective deterrent. And one that is a quick, no hassle solution.

I for one, do not trust the dynamics of China for many reasons in this regard. I'm not saying that they are bad or anything. I'll explain this part later.

 

[mb444]

I was speaking to an ex diplomat last week, despite news report to the contrary no actual contract has yet been signed with Russia. The only thing that has happened is an agreement to begin talking including the nuclear power plants. Apparently the French are making move to sell us nuclear power plant as well. Let's see what happens. The Russians asked for certain guarantees regarding continuity of the agreement that BAL was unable to provide. I would not put too much credence to earlier reports.

 

[帅的一匹]

well, budget may be the issue.... but that still doesn't properly describe why an off-the-shelf submarine would require 5 years to deliver.... training would obviously require a submarine... and justifies the earliest delivery.... so, that the training can start!..... if you say, its more difficult to operate subs, there can always be the option to have Chinese instructors on board, as long as BN crew are not fully accustomed with the system.... I still believe the delivery date quoted (2019) is wrong!

i think BD navy shall go with this in the furture:
039B

039C is also incoming.....

 

[帅的一匹]

Displacement: 3,400 tons (submerged)
Length: 80 m
Beam: 10 m
Tubes: 533mm x 6
Weapons: 21 Torpedoes
Speed 13 knots surface, 21 knots submerged, 10 knots AIP mode
Depth: 450M
Duration: 60 days
Crew: 50

China new version of 039b/C sub is rolling out as fast as producing sausage.

In consideration of Awami league is very close to India, China won't sell its first-tier weapon system to BD navy recently.

I think pakistan navy has ordered some 6 pops of 039B from China?