Stumbling Tiger, Leaping Dragon?

[faithfulguy]

"One thing to mention that Dragon are extinct and Tigers are still holding ground "

Most of the Economist will not agree on this...

What if there is a another revolution in China

I guess this is the only way for India to surpass China. Waiting for a diseaster to strike China.

As of now, Chinese economy is much more advance as compare to Indian economy. And the gap is widening. India's #1 trading partner is now China so I'm certain that trade with China is very important to India. Its best that all the trading partner work together instead of working against one another.

 

[jarnee]

Growth in long term will depend on domestic consumption, if that is on rise then china can maintain good growth rate, today the 12% you see is bec of Govt stimulus. , will be interesting to see in 2011-2012. also key thing to note here is currency valuation in future

 

[RobbieS]

Its a total misconception that FDI in china are from western sources. But this is not true. Most are Far Eastern countries with the exception of the US. The greatest source come from Hong Kong. The biggest difference between India and China that most people do not talk about is China's neighbor's vs India's neigbhors in contributing to the countries economic growth. Most of China's neighbors in east Asia are more economically well off than China. As a result, these countries, such as Japan, Singapore and South Korea plus Taiwan and HongKong help invest in China. India must relie on western investment. These other east Asian countries also invest in India but as China is much closer geographically and culturally, and also a bigger consumer market (China just surpass US as the #1 auto market) I do forsee the east asian countries and regions continue to invest heavily in China as compare to India.

Check out the following data-

Foreign investments in China (2004) in US$ Mil-
Hong Kong, China-- 189983.0
Virgin Islands 67303.0
Korea-- 62478.6
Japan-- 54515.7
Europe-- 47983.0
United States 39409.5
Taiwan-- 31174.9
Cayman Islands 20425.8
Samoa 11288.5

Actually Foreign Investment by Country or Region - China Statistics Census

You are right when you say that the Eastern neighbours invest more in China than the West. A few of the investments sources seem dodgy though, Cayman Islands and Virgin Islands figure amongst the top 10. That is because many of the US and EU companies are based out of these places to avoid taxation. Count these with Europe and US' investments and you will see the real figure.

But I'd again say that initially during the 70's when the East wasn't strong enough, it was the West that invested heavily. And even now US and EU are amongst China's biggest trading partners. So my point is that China itself is dependent on the West, whether they like it or not. Whether we trade in militarily goods or non-military goods, is just another detail. So no point calling India a US puppet.

 

[Laughing Buddha]

Check out the following data-

Foreign investments in China (2004) in US$ Mil-
Hong Kong, China-- 189983.0
Virgin Islands 67303.0
Korea-- 62478.6
Japan-- 54515.7
Europe-- 47983.0
United States 39409.5
Taiwan-- 31174.9
Cayman Islands 20425.8
Samoa 11288.5

Actually Foreign Investment by Country or Region - China Statistics Census

You are right when you say that the Eastern neighbours invest more in China than the West. A few of the investments sources seem dodgy though, Cayman Islands and Virgin Islands figure amongst the top 10. That is because many of the US and EU companies are based out of these places to avoid taxation. Count these with Europe and US' investments and you will see the real figure.

But I'd again say that initially during the 70's when the East wasn't strong enough, it was the West that invested heavily. And even now US and EU are amongst China's biggest trading partners. So my point is that China itself is dependent on the West, whether they like it or not. Whether we trade in militarily goods or non-military goods, is just another detail. So no point calling India a US puppet.

Hey I think you missed out the Middle-east countries... Iran main foreign bank and investment center is China

 

[RobbieS]

Hey I think you missed out the Middle-east countries... Iran main foreign bank and investment center is China

Well the source doesn't mention big investments by the middle east countries. You can see for yourself. I have included the link.