Hafizzz
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India's Own String of Pearls Around China
New India: India's Own String of Pearls Around China
Chinas official statements on Arunachal Pradesh and the larger border dispute since late last year clearly indicate a conscious change in Chinas policy towards India. China, which used to have border disputes with almost all its neighbours, has settled it amicably with the sole exception of India.
Chinas strategy towards India on the border and territorial dispute was clear for some time now delay the settlement till China can negotiate it from a position of considerable military and economic strength. China pinned its hopes on the economic reforms, which it started in the 1970s to make it economically, militarily and politically strong vis-à-vis India. All of a sudden in the early 1990s circumstances forced India too to embark on the economic reforms route. This, China was never able to foresee and today an India growing at 9% has upset Chinas calculations.
China, realising what economic reforms can do to a nation, embarked on its contain India strategy. China got down to its business of encircling India with its strategic string of pearls, which are pressure points to make India uneasy and vulnerable. The results have been fantastic as far as China is concerned; what with Indias supposed allies like Maldives, Seychelles, Sri Lanka, etc joining the party.
As India found herself at the worlds high table as a consequence of her unprecedented economic growth and post cold war geopolitical realties, Chinas strategy of playing for time failed miserably. Today India is an Asian ally of USA and rapidly getting economically and militarily closer to it. This has clearly rattled the Chinese and IMHO exactly because of this we are hearing those noises from China on the border and territorial dispute.
B. Raman, however, is of the view that China wants to settle the Tibet issue after the death of the present Dalai Lama by incorporating Tawang or possibly the whole of Arunachal Pradesh in to China Occupied Tibet by any means including another war if necessary.
Now the question is what should be Indias response to an increasingly belligerent China?
On the one hand China wants the trade relation, because it is heavily tilted in its favour to continue and grow further but also wants to have a multi-faceted relation covering all spheres with India. And on the other hand it wants to settle the border and territorial dispute in its favour, on its terms and at a time of its choosing. By its string of pearls strategy China wants to confine India to the subcontinent by making it feel strangled and thus vulnerable.
India too has an interest in continuing and boosting the trade relation with China particularly if Indias export share of value added products increases. But that definitely shouldnt undermine Indias interests or its territorial integrity. If anything that is clear from Chinas policies or official statements is that it doesnt want to do anything that will disrupt its peaceful growth. This means China surely can get belligerent but will not be stupid enough to get into a full-scale war to settle the border dispute when it knows unlike in 1962, today, India can hit back hard.
If one studies the geopolitical situation in the subcontinent and the belligerent noises emanating from China, then it is time for India to stop being pusillanimous in its relation with China. In other words, it is time to reciprocate Chinas policy of encirclement. Some joint Naval exercises and some security meetings between India, USA and allies have rattled the Chinese like anything. So how much more will China be rattled if India replicates its version of string of pearls around China?
Chinas Achilles Heels
To fuel its voracious growth, China is signing up oil, gas, and minerals deals of all kinds around the world. From South America to Australia, from Central Asia to Africa, the Chinese are rummaging for stuff to keep their country running. Signing up deals is the easy part but getting it to their country is the difficult part.
China and Pakistan have lined up ambitious plans for their growth. Pakistan hopes to benefit financially and economically from being a trade and energy corridor to the Central Asian Republics and China. China, which is building the Gwadar port in Pakistan, hopes to lay oil and gas pipelines to route crude and gas from the Persian Gulf and Africa to China through Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (***). Not only this, for China the shortest route to transport raw materials it plunders from the African continent to the mainland will be via the soon to be laid all-weather Karakoram Highway. A rail link is also planned.
The Karakoram Highway that connects Pakistan with China passes through the Khunjerab Pass in ***. If what Pakistan and China have planned for themselves - by exploiting Indias legitimate territory - comes to fruition, then the Karakoram Highway, the pipelines, the rail link all well could become Chinas Achilles heel. In other words, destruction of these economic links will make China highly vulnerable. This is an important pressure point India can exploit to make China feel the pressure. The strategy of targeting this vital economic corridor of China should be on two fronts. One, from Jammu and Kashmir and the other from the Wakhan Corridor in Afghanistan, which is nearer to the Karakoram Highway. To get access to Wakhan Corridor and establish a military outpost there, it would take Indias best diplomatic efforts in cajoling Afghanistan to grant it. One way of getting access is on the pretext of building roads that benefit Afghanistan in the Wakhan Corridor.
One of the reasons China is keen on routing oil and gas from Gulf and Africa through *** is to avoid the shipping lanes of Malacca Strait, which are patrolled by USA and allies. As India increasingly engages with USA and allies on security matters, sooner or later if India can play its cards shrewdly, it can hope to be given the exclusive or major responsibility of safeguarding the shipping lanes of SE Asia and the Malacca Strait. Once this fructifies China will surely know the pressure.
Chinas economically important areas are in Eastern China the coastal areas to be precise. That is were Chinas SEZs are. Indias IRBM Agni III, which is still in the developmental stage, can very well target these areas. But the distance just will not make China feel the pressure because Chinas BMD system will have ample time to knock them out.
Indias relation with Vietnam has been strong from the Cold War days. Apart from political and economic relations, India also has military relations with Vietnam. Vietnams northern borders are very close to Chinas economically important coastal regions. India needs to have a full-fledged military base in this area with a battery of appropriate missile targeting Chinas SEZs. Once again it would take Indias best diplomatic efforts in cajoling Vietnam to grant it. USA is also increasing its political and economic relation with Vietnam in order to pressure China on trade issues such as intellectual property rights and currency reform.
Another country with which Indias relation has been strong from the cold war days is Mongolia. An Indian military base here would be a good bet to put additional pressure on China.
Finally there is the Taiwan card. Nothing rattles China more than Taiwan getting any type of political importance particularly from countries that matter. India suffering from Sino-phobia after the 1962 war refused to have anything to do with Taiwan lest it annoyed China some more and China rubbed its nose in the mud again. Today, India has at last allowed a harmless (for China) Taiwanese politician to set foot in India only after taking due permission from Communist China. India needs to change its policy on Taiwan This card is to be kept aside till the appropriate time and let China know it.
What I wrote on the strategy to contain China is no fairytale but something that is achievable. To achieve this, as I mentioned earlier, it would take strong political resolve and Indias best diplomatic efforts. A military base each in Northern Vietnam immediately and the Wakhan Corridor later is of paramount importance if India wants to keep the boisterous and belligerent dragon away from mischief directed at it. Once China realizes that India can take out its vital economic assets and it cant respond before it is too late, it will have no option but to behave.
At the end of the day India also wants the border and territorial dispute with China settled amicably. This cannot be achieved as long as India decides not to confront the dragon with the ground realties.
If India remains complacent it will surely pay the price in not too distant future. If it is too incompetent to come up with a contain China strategy of its own, then the next best way to keep the dragon away and secure its borders is to get into full military alliance with the United States of America.
India denies that she has a string of Samosas around China's neck.
LOL