Strategic Game, Changing scenarios

[Bill Longley]

Chronicles of Abu Abdul Samad: Strategic Game, Changing scenarios.
The recent trip of US foreign sectary Hillary Clinton did not surprised anybody. Her body language and talks in Pakistan clearly showed the lack of confidence and shift in strategic chess game in the region. Most of our analysts who became over optimist about Pak-US relationship were taken aback when Ms Hillary Clinton at Point blank said “ That US want access to OBL and Mullah Omer from Pakistan” in other words saying that these two were state guests in Pakistan.
She also diplomatically threatened Pakistan about any future attack originating from Pakistan on US. or if Pakistan fails to tackle Haqqani network. Nearly same kind of things were said by General James john a week prior to Ms Hillary Clintons visit to Pakistan in India. He asked Pakistan to stop Infiltration of Militants in India. Then the same type of allegations and appreciation were heard during Mike Mullen’s visit to India.

Why Pakistan is being pressurized? Whats the game

To understand this entire game first we have to see the strategic chess board and interests of big powers. India not Pakistan is a long term US ally. At strategic level Indian and US interests converge. India is a big market for US and a rival of China. Pakistan on other hand is ally of china its only Importance for US arises due to its strategic location.

The race is on for Euro Asian and Central Asian oil and Gas reserves. Especially when Peak oil is near.US and Russia fought a war in Georgia two years back for the same oil interests.
US is not going to leave Afghanistan in near future which is evident from the fact that it has invested billions in key strategic places in Afghanistan especially in Punjsher Valley a small example is construction of Special operations Base 25 Km away from Uzbekistan border in Amu Darya area in North Afghanistan. According to reports US have acquired 17 acres of land for it and it will will cost 100 million US dollars to construct it . Base will be operational by2012.

On other hand US is facing setbacks in its war in Afghanistan. It’s still in self denial and is failing to acknowledge that Taliban movement has become a Pashtun National Struggle.

Like hype created before Marjah offensive it’s giving impression that clearing NWA will solve its problems in Afghanistan where as its failing to control Paktia and Paktika provinces of Afghanistan bordering NWA which by the way is not fault of Pakistan. It’s using Pakistan as an escape goat for its failures in Afghanistan knowing very well that Pakistan has sacrificed many times more then US and NATO combine and out of 19 Divisions of Army more than 7 are currently involve in counter terrorism operation.Pakistan cannot , right now afford to go into NWA and it will be a suicide to make new enemies for sake of US or any one

At a time When US is continuously accusing Pakistan no body at our side is asking US that why it has given free hand to Taliban to regroup against Pakistan in Nuristan and Kunar Provinces of Afghanistan. This year alone Army twice claimed clearing Bajor and at last had to complain about sanctuaries of Taliban in Afghan areas of Kunar and Nuristan from where US removed its forces a year back on plea of Mc Crystals new strategy.

Pakistani establishment on other hand has also felt the Intensions and game plan of US. President Zardari’s recent trip to china was Part of Pakistan’s counter move to save its national interests. Interestingly an important visit of Mollana Fazalur Rehman to china in April this year was not given full coverage in Pakistani press. Mollana Fazalur Rehman an Influential Islamists leader having great influence both in religious minded Pashtuns was received by Chinese Communist Party. He during his stay was taken to Xinjiang Province and visited Urumqi city which few months ago was battle ground of Uyghur (Muslim)— Han(Chinese) communal Riots. Mollana Fazalur Rehman signed Memorandum of Cooperation in China during his visit.

Things are changing rapidly in the region. Russia and China do not want Prolonged American presence in Region so do Iran. American presence means that continuation of militancy in the region. In fact this militancy is in favor of US as it gives excuses to stay.

India is the only Power in region who wants US to stay that to for its own interest in Central Asia and against china and Pakistan. An analyst rightly commented that Al though US and Pakistan sleep in same bed, they have different dreams. Honey moon period is ending and in near future we will see more pressure on Pakistan and Pakistan shifting more nearer to China and Russia. It’s an Interesting game which will test the resolve and audacity of our leadership and nation.


Chronicles of Abu Abdul Samad: Strategic Game, Changing scenarios.

 

[Don Ramsay]

exelent assesment

 

[Bill Longley]

exelent assesment

thanks bro
I think allience is always between equals

like Imtiaz gull said in our program THE PLATFORM

US and Pakistan sleeps in same bed but have different dreams

pakistan wants to end the voilence but US need voilence to remain in the region.
its real politiks in which its stupid to think US as an ally. it want its permanent presence to dominate Central Asia and for it , it want us to suffer

 

[into the wild]

very nice article indeed, makes a good sense..

pakistan needs to kick US out of afghanistan, and need to get out of US's sinking boat, in the past it has given us nothing but decieving lies and troubles, and in the present, it is missle attacking our lands, who knows in the future, it completely opposes us, just to play its interest with our eastern neighbour.. it doesnt give a damn about our national security and peace. a country ruthlessly bombing our citizens and at the same time black mailing us to raise the voice of support on it.

we cant afford to be "officially" allies with them anymore

 

[EjazR]

Interestingly an important visit of Mollana Fazalur Rehman to china in April this year was not given full coverage in Pakistani press. Mollana Fazalur Rehman an Influential Islamists leader having great influence both in religious minded Pashtuns was received by Chinese Communist Party. He during his stay was taken to Xinjiang Province and visited Urumqi city which few months ago was battle ground of Uyghur (Muslim)— Han(Chinese) communal Riots.

Yes very interesting indeed. Shows the hypocrisy of the so-called Islamist leaders. I guess he didn't want his religious minded constituency to know about it.

But overall, Pakistan should moderate its ties with the US and all hidden dealings particulalr with the army and intelligence agencies should be out in the open so that people know whatis happening. India's main concer as is Iran and the CAR's is that Afghanistan doesn't become the playground of the Taliban like in the 1990s where all neighbouring countries were affected. Recently India has revived its relationship with Iran and Russia on this issue as US has moved closer to Pakistan on the Taliban reintegration issue.
India ignoring Washington as it woos Iran

However, US doesn't seem to be in a hurry in leaving Afghanistan. IMO, the terrorism issue is really secondary now. AQ is devastated and to be honest doesnt have the capability to launch an attack from tribal areas. What is needed is better policing with the US to thwart such attacks. But then why is the US still here? This leads me to believe that the "game" is much more than just terrorism now.

 

[somebozo]

Well we as Pakistanis do understand the corruption which runs in our countries and sevral "forigen" hand in funding these terrorist. Its part our fault that we failed to disarm and engage these so called "talibans" in post soviet-union scenerio. Our corrupt politicans pockted entire arab aid for these poor afghans and engaged them in radical Islam for attention diversion. Now our own bad fruit it turning ripe. We had excellent chances of pledging intertaional aid for afghans and turning them towards stability however we failed to do so not by circumtances but by our own will. As much as we shun iran for involement in post-soviet union afghanistan, we must point out that they fared much better in education and facilies in their "northern alliance" controlled Afghanistan while the talibans were busy burning books, blowing school, banning women and demolishing statues of bamiyan with saudi help.

Today we have to beg USA for our strategic clout in Afghanistan despite sporting the largest Puktoon majority, Afghan disporsa which has sucessfully settled and established business, and rendering invaluable services to Afghan refugees because all we have on our report card is poor performance. How can USA trust us once again in stabilizing Afghanistan when we already failed to do it. Politics is a game of far sightness and suvivability of our exisitence is growing slim day by day if we continue to vote incompetent people to power. We are scrambling in Afghanistan due to american pressure and iron claw on religious millitants. Had it not been for that, the support for talibans would continue and life of average afghan would be dehumanized further day by day.

The way to average Afghan heart and mind does not lead through saudi funded religious doctrine and holy war training but in a capability to provide him and for his family a fair standard of living, three times bread and future to his generations ahead.

But overall, Pakistan should moderate its ties with the US and all hidden dealings particulalr with the army and intelligence agencies should be out in the open so that people know whatis happening. India's main concer as is Iran and the CAR's is that Afghanistan doesn't become the playground of the Taliban like in the 1990s where all neighbouring countries were affected. Recently India has revived its relationship with Iran and Russia on this issue as US has moved closer to Pakistan on the Taliban reintegration issue.

Well Iran funded the menance of northen alliance to project its own show of "power" on ill precived logic. This turned Afghan internal politics into conflicts of Shia vs Sunni and Arab vs Persian with saudi money and hardcore doctrine arriving quota unlimited for Talibans. Iran may project sevral excuses for its action but it has a history of supporting its favoured religous factions rigidly and constantly in a bullyish faction without caring for direction of conflict.

However, US doesn't seem to be in a hurry in leaving Afghanistan. IMO, the terrorism issue is really secondary now. AQ is devastated and to be honest doesnt have the capability to launch an attack from tribal areas. What is needed is better policing with the US to thwart such attacks. But then why is the US still here? This leads me to believe that the "game" is much more than just terrorism now.

Given the tribal conditions of FATA, i assure you the terrorist networking and millitants would spring back like mushrooms right after US departure. Therefore, USA is persuing a long term hold of PA by provinding assitance for training, surviellance, consultation and planning.