State of Taliban aggression

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

A welcome change​

By Shahid Javed Burki

Tuesday, 09 Jun, 2009 | 08:26 AM PST |



THE decision by the government to send the military to chase out the Islamic militants from Malakand may have ushered in a process that can bring the country back to the path of religious moderation and political modernisation. The move represents a major change for the army.

According to one analysis, ‘the coming weeks are a reckoning for Pakistan’s army. …The … force — long primed for another war against the regional rival India — is now fighting an internal conflict’.

Maj-Gen Athar Abbas, head of the army’s public affairs division, was interviewed by the Financial Times in which he indicated the change in focus in the military’s thinking. If this persists — and there is good reason to believe that it would — it would have enormous consequences for the country’s relations with India and, consequently, for the future of South Asia.

‘An existential threat in terms of our internal security has grown over time. It needs our attention and an urgent response,’ he told the correspondents of the British newspaper. The thinking is changing but the army is aware of the dangers that are involved. ‘But we have to be very careful as we are operating against our own people in their own area. We have to separate the militants from the tribes. We can afford to fight the militants; we cannot afford to fight the tribes,’ he continued.

The operation is proceeding at the time of this writing and it is taking a heavy human toll. The UN official responsible for looking after ‘internally displaced persons’ has suggested that the displacement of people by the military’s action in the valley of Swat and in the districts surrounding it has reached proportions last seen in the Rwanda conflict in 1994. Relief agencies were warning that the number of refugees is not likely to stabilise while fighting continues. Soon after the exodus of refugees began from Swat, the UN estimated that the country required half a billion dollars to provide relief to the displaced people. A donors’ conference pledged about half that amount. Last month, the US announced an emergency assistance package for $110m.

‘President Obama is determined to match our words with our actions because Pakistan’s government is leading the fight against extremists that threaten their country and our collective security,’ said Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in a statement issued to accompany the announcement for the aid package.

This assistance from the United States along with that to be provided by other donors will certainly help Pakistan deal with this extraordinary situation. That said three things need to be underscored in this context. One, Pakistan has experienced a large displacement of people in the past. It received eight million refugees from India soon after the partition of British India and the birth of Pakistan. It hosted three to four million refugees that left Afghanistan and sought refuge in the areas on the Pakistani side of the border.

An earthquake in October 2005 in Pakistan’s north produced another flow of two to 2.5 million refugees. All these were near catastrophic situations, but all of them the government was able to deal with and from all of them flowed political, social and economic consequences that were not anticipated when these displacements occurred. There is no doubt that the Swat displacement will also have similar consequences. What is important is that there is a consensus in the country that this is a price worth paying for dealing with an existential threat to Pakistan posed by the rise of Islamic extremism.

The second area of concern is the nature of America’s deeper involvement in what the current set of American policymakers have begun to call the ****** area. From the six-year long engagement in Iraq, the Americans are developing a new counter-insurgency approach for this part of the world. That involves considerable focus on winning the hearts and minds of the people who are economically and socially very backward. They need focus on human and physical development — work which will involve not only the provision of funds but also technical know-how and institution-building.

The Obama administration seems keen to move in that direction but by using unmanned aircrafts — the drones — to hunt and eliminate suspected terrorists, it is producing collateral damage. David Kilcullen, who has written on the subject of counter-insurgency after having experiencing it firsthand in Southeast Asia while working for the Australian military, sees serious problems with the use of the drones as a weapon of choice. On a recent visit to Pakistan, he was told that 17 militants had been killed by the drone attacks while 700 civilians also died. He called a two per cent hit ratio ‘not moral’.

Also the use of air muscle reminds the people of this area of the atrocities committed during colonial times. According to the historian Priya Satia, ‘Only a permanent end to the strategy will win the Pakistani hearts and minds back to their government and to its US ally. They, like Afghans and Iraqis, are less struck by the strategy’s futuristic qualities than by its uncanny echo to the past: aerial counter-insurgency was invented in precisely these two regions — Iraq and the Pakistan-Afghan borderland in the 1920s by the British. In the memory of [the] colonial and political dynamics of … aerial strategy in the region Pakistanis see the drones as ‘post-colonial’.’

The third concern is even trickier than the first one. It is my belief that the rise of Islamic extremism and militancy is one of those areas that call for a regional solution. But calling the region ‘Af-Pak’ does not do full justice to the regional aspect of the problem. The Obama administration’s instincts were correct when the terms of reference it issued for the appointment of Richard Holbrooke as a special representative to the region implicitly included India.

This led to protests from New Delhi and expressions of considerable satisfaction by Indian officialdom and think-tank community when that reference was removed. But the Indian involvement in dealing with the matter is critical not only because that country has suffered from several acts of terrorism, most recently in Mumbai in November 2008, that can be traced to some terrorist groups operating on Pakistani soil. India also needs to ensure that the countries on its periphery are economically, politically and socially stable. Only then would the rise of extremism in the area be checked.

With the beginning of the Swat operation, Islamabad may have initiated a significant change in its worldview. However, for the effort to succeed there must be similar changes in the thinking in other capitals, particularly Washington and New Delhi.

 

[Neo]

State of Taliban aggression​

As the chief of army staff (COAS), General Ashfaq Kayani, visited Mingora on Monday, there was random news about the state of Taliban aggression, leading one to believe that the chief of the Tehreek-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) Baitullah Mehsud is under pressure. The ongoing reaction of the people of Upper Dir against the Taliban interlopers has led to the elimination of 14 of them, including their Afghan commander, while the houses of 13 others were burned down. On Monday, too, another 21 Taliban were reportedly killed.

Disenchantment is setting in among the latter-day Taliban who joined Baitullah’s enterprise simply to fulfil their dreams of a “pure Islam” to transform society into some sort of imagined utopia. After perceiving that the Taliban were on the run, a Taliban chief in Peshawar has also denounced Baitullah’s policies: “Whatever Baitullah Mehsud and his associates are doing in the name of Islam is not a jihad, and in fact it is rioting and terrorism”. This “realisation” has come after the military operation in the Malakand-Swat region and, above all, after the formation of a national consensus against the TTP.

In Bajaur, where the Tehreek-e Nifaz-e Shariat-e Muhammadi (TNSM) of Sufi Muhammad was adopted as the guiding light of a local faction, the Taliban are treating it in a manner that differs from past practice. On Monday they took 100 members of the TNSM hostage, including the local chief, after “differences between the Taliban and the TNSM intensified”. But one must realistically assess the growth of TNSM influence in Bajaur. The TNSM movement had affected Bajaur in the 1990s but its appeal was greatly increased only after the success of warlord Fazlullah in the adjacent Malakand region. Now, with the retreat of the Taliban, however, TNSM influence is being rolled back. The linkage with the TTP is therefore coming under pressure. Inside TNSM, too, the transition from acquiescing in the savagery of the Taliban to non-acceptance of the “un-Islamic” practice of killing Muslims is being completed. Now TNSM is becoming a problem for Baitullah’s warriors as a non-military adjunct whose leader Sufi Mohammad has considerably lost his charisma as the saintly symbol of revolt against the state of Pakistan. There are reports also that factions of the Taliban are refusing to fight against the army.

Baitullah’s boasting about how his TTP is going to spread the warfront and take the fight into Punjab and Sindh is being put to the test of reality. There is no doubt that the jihadi network dependent on mosques and madrassas in Punjab is ready to carry out his orders, but the suicide-bombers have to be prepared in South Waziristan by “specialists” like Qari Hussain and then sent down to the target areas with “minders”. But the gradual but significant increase in the capacity of the administration to anticipate attacks and go for the suspects is showing results in Punjab. On Monday, the Sargodha police arrested three members of the Tehreek-e Taliban Punjab and seized from their possession eight kilograms of explosive material, two suicide jackets and a Hiace vehicle.

The TTP’s earlier “success” in Punjab was owed to a number of factors. The foremost factor was the jihadi militias of long gestation that had fought the war in Afghanistan and Kashmir with the patronage of the Pakistani state. But when the Taliban revolted against the state, these organisations made the conscious decision to join them rather than just fade away after the state no longer needed them against India. The other factor was that of “empowerment” of the small-time cleric who began to “imitate” the intimidatory policies of the Taliban by “supplementing” their threat. All that is now in retreat, as the state, backed and pushed forward by the “national consensus”, has begun to hit back.

This is not to downplay the capacity of the TTP to stage aggression. As it retreats in the face of the military operation, more spectacular events should be expected. The war is for the long haul and Pakistan cannot afford to become complacent about its ability to tackle the likes of Baitullah Mehsud. That ability is still limited given the warlord’s resources, entrenchment in certain regions and the “external” support that is on offer to him. But Pakistan has completed the first lap — that of the will to fight back — and will need a lot of international support when its army enters South Waziristan some months ahead and takes a look at the international face of terror and its complex support system.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

Militants show sophisticated tactics in Pakistan​

Thursday, 11 Jun, 2009 | 03:22 PM PST |

Pakistan
Security on high-alert in Islamabad

ISLAMABAD: Two commando-style assaults in Pakistan in the past two weeks show militants can now pierce the iron-fortified gates, concrete barricades and cordons of armed guards that are meant to secure hotels, housing compounds and even police stations across the country.

The level of organisation and sophistication of the attacks has been rarely seen in Pakistan. They are designed to send a message that if the military launches an offensive against the Taliban's stronghold near the Afghan border it will face a highly determined and well-prepared enemy, analysts say.

A team of suicide assailants in two vehicles opened fire on security guards, then were able to drive through the main gate of the luxury Pearl Continental Hotel in Peshawar late Tuesday and detonate a huge bomb close enough to the building to collapse part of the reinforced concrete structure.

The tactics mirrored closely an assault exactly two weeks earlier on a police building and a regional headquarters of Pakistan's top intelligence agency in Lahore.

In that attack, gunmen leaped from a van that stopped at a guard post blocking the street leading to the security buildings. They opened fire and lobbed grenades at guards, then lifted a heavy boom gate to allow the van through. About 30 died in the blast that erupted moments later.

Mahmood Shah, a former chief of security in the tribal region where Taliban and al-Qaeda fighters have become entrenched, said the Peshawar and Lahore attacks mark a shift in strategy for the militants, whose attacks previously have often involved lone assailants with suicide vests, small improvised bombs or gun ambushes.

‘It is an improvement in their tactics; they are trying to enter the target through use of force,’ Shah told The Associated Press. ‘It appears that they are in a hurry and they are becoming more aggressive.’

The rush may be due to a widespread expectation that the military is planning to launch a major operation against the Taliban in the tribal areas of North and South Waziristan.

No plans have been announced, but the military success of the month-old offensive to oust the Taliban from the Swat region has emboldened the government and the armed forces, officials say.

The purpose of the Taliban's carefully planned attacks was ‘to send a message to the government to stay away from Waziristan, which is their base,’ said Hasan Askari Rizvi, a defence and political analyst.

‘It seems that they are now going for a head-on collision’ with the government, he said.

A day after the May 27 Lahore attack, a senior spokesman claimed responsibility for the Taliban and warned of a wider campaign of violence in major Pakistani cities in retaliation Swat offensive.

The offensive is seen as a test of Pakistan's resolve in fighting militancy.

In September, before the Swat offensive began, a dump truck loaded with explosives blew up outside the Marriott hotel in the capital, Islamabad, killing more than 50 people. In that attack, the truck was driven up to barriers blocking the entrance of the hotel but did not drive through.

Tuesday's attack prompted fresh concerns about security at embassies and other places where foreigners gather.

At western-styled stores and restaurants in Islamabad, gates and guards with shotguns are already the norm, while the US Embassy and most other foreign missions are clustered within a compound surrounded by a high wall topped with razor wire and several other layers of security.

Security camera footage released Wednesday showed two vehicles approach the main gate to the Pearl Continental Hotel, a regular stop for international aid workers, journalists and other foreigners that is set well back from the street in a large compound surrounded by a high fence.

A white sedan pulls up at the gate's guard post, and a puff of smoke suggests shots fired from the front seat. A guard outside the car window collapses to the ground. Another, who seconds before had swung an already-open gate wider to let the car pull up, starts fleeing toward the hotel.

Unchallenged, the car and the truck drive into the compound, over a metal barrier that recesses into the driveway and through a chicane of concrete barriers positioned to slow vehicles down.

A flash of light a few moments later illuminates the compound and the street outside, and the lens is filled with a cloud of dust. Police said initial signs were that the truck was loaded with half a ton of military-grade explosives.

At least 11 people died, including several aid workers, two of whom were foreigners working for the UN, officials said Wednesday.

Bruce Hoffman, a terrorism expert at Georgetown University in Washington, said such tactics have been used before by Pakistani militant groups fighting against Indian rule in the disputed Himalayan territory of Kashmir, but they have been limited in scope because of the level of military precision required.

‘It is very difficult to defend against as it is a forced-entry attack by determined, even suicidal adversaries,’ Hoffman said in an e-mailed response to questions. ‘Like the Mumbai attacks last November, this attack shows a high level of training, discipline, command and control and pre-attack intelligence.’

Other terrorist group may be studying such attacks ‘and may aspire to emulate them, but the level of training, discipline and command and control are not easily replicated,’ he said.

Shah, the former tribal zone official, said the best protection from such attacks was to post sharpshooters and machine guns on the roof of high-target buildings, who could spot assailants as they launched their assault and open fire before they could get close to their target.

‘If you have enough imagination you can repel such attacks,’ he said. — AP

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

‘Like the Mumbai attacks last November, this attack shows a high level of training, discipline, command and control and pre-attack intelligence.’

That proves it!

Its RAW! Only institutional support from a hostile country could result in such 'sophisticated attacks' involving a 'high level of training, discipline, command and control and pre-attack intelligence.'

And yes, I am being extremely sarcastic (and willfully violating forum rules ) while referring to the inane rationale given by Indian political and military leaders in scapegoating Pakistani institutions after Mumbai.

 

[Ratus Ratus]

And yes, I am being extremely sarcastic (and willfully violating forum rules )

OK now go ban yourself or post a warning to yourself. Shame!
I thought you were better than that, I am totally disappointed.


What most people don’t seem to realise that will the experience the various Taliban factions have they do have the experience to launch these types of attacks. They have the knowhow, the money and can get the resources. These are not supplied by the boggy man RAW, wayward ISI agent, CIA, or even Mossad. The al-Qaeda/Taliban tentacles run out of Pakistan and that is the arms equipment pipeline.

You only need a few trainers and they can move about from one area to the next..

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

OK now go ban yourself or post a warning to yourself. Shame!

That would be an interesting thing to try.

I thought you were better than that, I am totally disappointed.

I stand chastised and duly regretful for my actions.

 

[Screaming Skull]

Wow lol!!! First time I am seeing a mod trolling in his own thread Way to go AM, you are setting standards!!!

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

Wow lol!!! First time I am seeing a mod trolling in his own thread Way to go AM, you are setting standards!!!

Hey - at least I'm completely open about my intentions on why I made the comments.

At least I'm not as bad as the political military leadership of certain countries whose comments carry far greater influence over their people.

Who's going to call them to task for 'trolling'?

 

[Enigma SIG]

That proves it!

Its RAW! Only institutional support from a hostile country could result in such 'sophisticated attacks' involving a 'high level of training, discipline, command and control and pre-attack intelligence.'

And yes, I am being extremely sarcastic (and willfully violating forum rules ) while referring to the inane rationale given by Indian political and military leaders in scapegoating Pakistani institutions after Mumbai.

Thats some hilarious post from a mod

On a lighter note tho; these people have been fighting for so long they do not need training from anybody else; they know the terrain; the language; and the tactics the army on the offense uses; they are not dumb as the west would like to label them.

 

[Ratus Ratus]

they are not dumb as the west would like to label them

It was the government of the nation where Mumbai is located that did not believe they could launch such operations. They made the first accusation along this line..
Remember 'hidden hand' and all that funny stuff being spouted.

 

[MilesTogo]

off topic - view latest debate show - maulan tell the host - ab maulana se aise to baat na kare - and host is like embarassed.. really funny

 

[Xeric]

May it be 'few trainers' who can 'move about', but the point of concern is that from where did these 'trainers' come from. Are they some ex-military/security personnel or were they specifically trained by 'some' to make use of what they have learnt, because i dont find any school, college, club, community etc etc anywhere giving 'formal' training regarding evasion, escape, tactics, obstacle crossing, forced marches and weapon handling, though yes there are many shooting clubs etc round us, but they dont train then to become 'fighters'.

i hope you people can differentiate between a fighter and a self-defender!

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

Rescue-15 suicide bomber was the one who got away​

By Munawer Azeem

Thursday, 11 Jun, 2009 | 11:51 AM PST |

ISLAMABAD: The success of law enforcement agencies in capturing four terrorists before they hit their target turned into a failure as their fifth and last accomplice struck Rescue-15 on June 6, killing two officials and injuring four others, sources told Dawn on Wednesday.

The preliminary investigations suggested that the suicide bomber targeted Rescue-15 in desperation after his four accomplices were arrested. The sources said the police helpline was not the prime target of the terrorist group.

One of the terrorists was arrested about 12 days back from Bhara Kahu and on information provided by him the law enforcers came to know that his four accomplices including the one who carried out the suicide attack at Rescue-15 were present in the capital and planning to strike sensitive installations.

The prime target was also identified to the bomber besides provision of a suicide jacket to him, the sources said.

On the light of the information including the appearance of the four other accomplices - facilitators and the bomber - the law enforcers succeeded to arrest three more terrorists from different parts of the city. However, they failed to trace the suicide bomber.

‘The suicide bomber struck Rescue-15 on June 6 after failing to achieve his prime target and knowing the arrest of his accomplices,’ the sources said, adding there was a possibility that the police helpline was targeted as the suicide bomber was afraid that he might also be arrested.

The sources said the militant group hailed from Swat and was affiliated with a group associated with Baitullah Mehsud’s Terikh-i-Taliban Pakistan.

Besides, the law enforcement agencies also arrested five other terrorists during the recent past including suicide bombers, facilitators and handlers from G-11, G-6 and G-7, the sources added.

The alleged terrorists will soon be handed over to the city police for further legal process, they said.

Meanwhile, all the victims of the Rescue-15 bomb attack are stated to be stable. ASI Mohammad Anwar, who was in critical condition and kept in the surgical ICU, has been shifted to the surgical ward after his condition improved.

Another victim, constable Tariq Saeed, who suffered head injury, has also been shifted to the surgical ward. Constable Imtiaz also suffered hand injury and is being treated at the hospital.

-----------------------------------------

The LEA's and intelligence are getting closer in preempting these attacks. One has to keep in mind that several dozen suspects with explosives and suicide vests have been arrested in Peshawar, Islamabad, Lahore and Karachi.

This is not to suggest that our LEA's and intelligence should rest on their laurels, but that they are not taking this lying down either.

There is tremendous scope for improvement, both in terms of the work done by the LEA's and institutional reforms related to training and compensation that can allow us to combat the Taliban and Al Qaeda as they seek to spread chaos to terrorize Pakistanis into submission.

Another interesting report in this regard:

Pakistan to get Chinese arms to fight terrorism​

Friday, June 12, 2009
BEIJING: Pakistan has given a firm assurance to the Chinese leadership that it was committed to eliminating extremism, terrorism and separatism, and would not allow any terrorist outfit to operate from its soil, Interior Minister Rahman Malik said.

Giving impressions on completion of the first phase of his June 9-12 official visit to China, he said there were some “traces” of the terrorist outfit of East Turkmenistan Independence Movement (ETIM) found in the Fata area and Pakistan had taken firm action against it. He said it was the modus operandi of the terrorist outfits that they worked in syndicates but Pakistan would not allow these outlaws to inflict any harm to our most trusted friend.

“We have signed agreements worth $300 million to acquire state-of-the-art equipment to combat terrorism,” he said adding that the first consignment of the most-needed equipment would be reaching Pakistan within three weeks.

The equipment Pakistan needs includes most modern mobile scanners that can detect hidden explosives and drugs. “Initially, we would start employing this equipment in the metropolitan cities like Islamabad, Lahore and Karachi and then gradually we plan to cover the entire country,” he said.
Pakistan to get Chinese arms to fight terrorism

I hope the GoP focuses on capacity building of the law enforcement agencies and the Intelligence Bureau, with military and foreign assistance where necessary - this is no time for political appointees and playing party politics.

 

[Energon]

‘Like the Mumbai attacks last November, this attack shows a high level of training, discipline, command and control and pre-attack intelligence.’

That proves it!

Its RAW! Only institutional support from a hostile country could result in such 'sophisticated attacks' involving a 'high level of training, discipline, command and control and pre-attack intelligence.'

And yes, I am being extremely sarcastic (and willfully violating forum rules ) while referring to the inane rationale given by Indian political and military leaders in scapegoating Pakistani institutions after Mumbai.

That analogy even if facetious does not work in the case of Frankenstein creations.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

That analogy even if facetious does not work in the case of Frankenstein creations.

Righhhht - but why is this Frankenstein, when it heads over to India, only capable of doing what it does because there it has 'institutional support' - whereas at home it is perfectly capable of doing the same, and more, without any such support.

Does Frankenstein get amnesia, forgetting all weapons and tactical training, every time a mission to India is undertaken, thereby requesting ISI, PA and PN refresher courses?

Sorry Ratus Ratus, but as you can see, even eminently sensible and intelligent posters refuse to give up on this canard, which is why I keep pointing it out.