Sri Lanka debt and CPEC

[ckf]

So you feel Sri Lanka is risky country to invest ?

Sri Lanka soverign bond is junk...b1 rating...mostly Banana Republic countries.

 

[Sam.]

Sri Lanka soverign bond is junk...b1 rating...mostly Banana Republic country territories.

Thank you for your information.

 

[Kabira]

I still have doubts about the 1-2%, when your agencies haven't mentioned at what rate are these loans being procured...anyway, that's a discussion for when the actual figures are revealed.

What you need to be worried is the handing over of these projects without a due process of competitive bidding and no transparency in what's being paid and what's to be paid by pakistani consumers. I doubt any open audits have been done to look at the feasibility of the projects. There isn't a bright history or precedent to prove that such projects become feasible over a period. Case in point is what happened in sri lanka or tajikistan.

Don't doubt now.

 

[wiseone2]

Example of Sri Lanka is given when people say to Pakistan to be careful about China investment. Not just foreigners but also opposition parties in Pakistan.

What exactly happened? Apparently Sri Lanka debt was so high that now 95% of their tax revenues goes to debt serving?

This will obviously not happen to Pakistan because tax revenues will increase to $39b next year and $80-100b by 2023. CPEC loan is $11 which Pakistan will have to pay starting 2022 over period of 25 years.

But I was wondering why Sri Lanka got fucked? How can you function with just 5% of tax revenues? By taking more loans I guess.

Why is China building a port in Hambantota ?
What is the economic rationale for the port ?

Don't doubt now.

Is IPP independent power producer ?

 

[Clutch]

Why? Just why the Pakistani media and Pakistani politicians are allowing this suicidal project to happen? How much or what have Chinese paid/given them?

Why? Just why the Pakistani media and Pakistani politicians are allowing this suicidal project to happen? How much or what have Chinese paid/given them?

Because a Hindutva extremist nation south of us is continuously terrorizing pakistan and killing our innocent civilians across pakistan.

And of course to help the sale of this across the border, all Pakistanis hold stock in this brand:

 

[Zhukov]

Reading almost any forum around After CPEC i have realized that Indians are Most cincere friends of Pakistan and they are so worried for us They want us to become indipendent economic superpower and China is our real enemy [emoji23][emoji23][emoji23]
:Sarcasm:

 

[wiseone2]

Reading almost any forum around After CPEC i have realized that Indians are Most cincere friends of Pakistan and they are so worried for us They want us to become indipendent economic superpower and China is our real enemy [emoji23][emoji23][emoji23]
:Sarcasm:

I could care less about CPEC. Just do not make tall claims about how it is the center of the universe

 

[Zhukov]

I could care less about CPEC. Just do not make tall claims about how it is the center of the universe

To bhai apne Country ke baarey mei hi kar rahey hain na. Apke peit mei aur kahin aur kis chiz ki jalan uth rahi hai hamarey newly identified Kher Khawa

 

[wiseone2]

Example of Sri Lanka is given when people say to Pakistan to be careful about China investment. Not just foreigners but also opposition parties in Pakistan.

What exactly happened? Apparently Sri Lanka debt was so high that now 95% of their tax revenues goes to debt serving?

This will obviously not happen to Pakistan because tax revenues will increase to $39b next year and $80-100b by 2023. CPEC loan is $11 which Pakistan will have to pay starting 2022 over period of 25 years.

But I was wondering why Sri Lanka got fucked? How can you function with just 5% of tax revenues? By taking more loans I guess.

Tax revenues doubling in 6 years in a country where most people do not pay taxes

 

[wiseone2]

How can China sell a dream to Lankans when they actually initiated the Hambantota project and offered India first to build it. Indians knows Lankans well but still spreading China fear syndrome when in fact China is getting screwed by the Lankans...China build the port and air port, employs tens of thousands of Lankans and paid billions to Lankan contractors. Even though China owns the facilities through dubious default by the Lankan government(nobody pay taxes and corruption on every level of politics)...billions of loans have to be written off. What a sweet deal for the Lankans...Why does China do it...because it takes balls to invest long term and achieve strategic objectives...which something Indians are sorely lacking in...big kahunas to accept losses.

Chinese are reasonably good businessmen. they are not chumps. they are trying to establish bases in Hambantota and Gwadar. There is no economic reason for CPEC to pass through Gwadar. It can go through Karachi.

 

[Nilgiri]

Sri Lanka GDP $80 billion. 95% of it's revenues goes to debt serving.

This is true? @Godman @Gibbs

 

[wiseone2]

This is true? @Godman @Gibbs

I doubt the 95% figure

 

[Nilgiri]

I doubt the 95% figure

I also doubt the 1-2% interest rate being quoted for the entire (MOU - based) principal of the CPEC loan. Please read in detail:

http://www.atimes.com/cpec-game-changer-might-change-nothing/

https://www.dawn.com/news/1286698/hidden-costs-of-cpec

http://www.theanalystworld.com/chinese-investment-in-pakistan-rhetoric-or-reality/

 

[Kabira]

I also doubt the 1-2% interest rate being quoted for the entire (MOU - based) principal of the CPEC loan. Please read in detail:

http://www.atimes.com/cpec-game-changer-might-change-nothing/

https://www.dawn.com/news/1286698/hidden-costs-of-cpec

http://www.theanalystworld.com/chinese-investment-in-pakistan-rhetoric-or-reality/

1-2% interest rate is from horse mouth. Like karachi circular train will cost $2.4B and interest rate 2% over 25-30 years.

This is true? @Godman @Gibbs

"Governor of the Sri Lankan Central Bank, Dr. Indrajit Coomaraswamy said Around 90% of the Sri Lankan government’s revenue was absorbed by debt service payments in 2016."
http://southasianmonitor.com/2017/01/24/sri-lankan-governments-90-revenue-goes-debt-repayment/

Things will only go bad

Accordingly, Sri Lanka is compelled to make the repayment on foreign loans as follows:

Total amount paid in 2014 – US$ 1,442 million

Total amount paid in 2015 – US$ 2,031 million

Total amount paid in 2016 – US$ 1,828 million

Total amount should be paid in 2017 – US$ 2,417 million

Total amount should be paid in 2018 – US$ 2,564 million

Total amount should be paid in 2019 – US$ 3,992 million

Total amount should be paid in 2020 – US$ 3,463 million.

 

[Samlee]

HAIL THE new saviours !!

Pakistan's GDP to debt ratio is currently at 66.5% (India's is currently at 69.5%). The lowest our GDP to debt ratio went down to was in 2007, at 56.4%; and the highest it went to was 87.9% in 2001.

Sri Lanka's GDP to debt ratio is currently at 79.3%, far higher than Pakistan, which is why they were feeling the effects more.

The list of nations with a greater GDP to debt ratio are Japan (250.4%), Greece (179%), Lebanon (146%), Italy (132.6%), Portugal (130.4%), Jamaica (128.4%), Cape Verde (123%), Bhutan (118.6%), Singapore (112%), Cyprus (107.8%), Belgium (105.9%), USA (104.17%), Spain (99.4%), France (96%) and many many many more countries.

The situation of Pakistan's economic debt obligations getting stretched is highly exaggerated. Pakistan is the 42nd worst country in the world in terms of the debt to GDP ratio, but no where near the worse ones out there. There are many many nations that should be a lot more worried than Pakistan.

While Pakistan's debt will increase with the CPEC project, the investments in the project will spur the economy, the GDP growth rate can rise by 2.5-3%. Hence, it can rise from 5% to 8% when we start bearing the fruits of the project.

The overall GDP figure will hence rise quicker than the debt we owe, which will bring the GDP to debt ratio down in the future.

Thats how the chinese lured the Srilanka selling them fake dreams that Hambantota will be next Singapore and it will take the sheen out of Mumbai and how the revenues will sky rocket overnight and the debts will be just like peanuts to be paid. But reality was different.


Well I can foresee Chinese blaming the corruption of Pakistani Govt. for Pakistan getting into a massive debt trap after

Example of Sri Lanka is given when people say to Pakistan to be careful about China investment. Not just foreigners but also opposition parties in Pakistan.

What exactly happened? Apparently Sri Lanka debt was so high that now 95% of their tax revenues goes to debt serving?

This will obviously not happen to Pakistan because tax revenues will increase to $39b next year and $80-100b by 2023. CPEC loan is $11 which Pakistan will have to pay starting 2022 over period of 25 years.

But I was wondering why Sri Lanka got fucked? How can you function with just 5% of tax revenues? By taking more loans I guess.

a few years just like they are blaming Sri Lanka now.

People Do Not Know The Full Details And Start Ranting Comparing Gwadar To Hanbantota

The Things Is Hanbantota Did Start Up Successfully But What Happened Was That Multiple Offers Of Investment Were Rejected By Rajapakse Government

http://epaper.dailynews.lk//art.asp?id=2016/12/14/pg37_7&pt=p&h=

These Projects Were To Become Sources Of Revenue For The Port But They Were Driven Away

Secondly Back In 2016 Striking Workers Detained A Japanese Vessel

http://www.newindianexpress.com/wor...ping-lines-avoid-hambantota-port-1548603.html

This Led To The Port Being Declared High Risk By Insurance Companies

http://www.newindianexpress.com/wor...ort-in-sri-lanka-as-high-risk-1548984--1.html

The Fact Is Sri Lanka Led Itself Into A Debt Trap Because Of Politics Not Chinese Investment And To Compare CPEC With Hanbantota Is Utterly Stupid