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South Korea frets as TPP erodes trade advantage over Japan

News of a preliminary deal on the Trans-Pacific Partnership drew a nervous response in South Korea, which missed the chance to become a founding member and is now fretting over the boost the trade pact will give to rival exporters in Japan.

The direct impact of membership would have been relatively limited for South Korea, which has secured bilateral trade deals with 10 of the TPP’s 12 members over the past 11 years. Those deals promised its exporters an advantage over Japanese peers in crucial markets such as the US, after Tokyo failed to match Seoul’s energetic trade liberalisation.

But with agreement reached on the TPP’s key points, that advantage looks set to be eliminated, sparking anxious commentary in national media. “Crisis as Korea will be overtaken by Japan in the trade deal war it had been winning”, ran a headline in the Chosun Ilbo, the top-selling national daily.

A survey published on Monday by the Korea Trade-Investment Promotion Agency suggested the damage from resurgent Japanese competition would be minimal in most large export industries. South Korean steel exporters do not compete against Japanese peers in the US market, it noted, while IT products to the US from both countries are already exempt from tariffs.

A stronger impact is expected in the automotive sector. South Korean and Japanese carmakers compete fiercely in the US market, and the former are set to enjoy tariff-free access from next year under the Korea-US trade deal that entered into force in 2011.


Monday’s deal means that advantage over Japanese producers is likely to be shortlived, prompting shares in carmakers Hyundai Motor and Kia Motors to fall more than 5 per cent on Tuesday before recovering some losses.

“The TPP is definitely negative for Korean autos . . . investors were surprised by the rapid advance of negotiations,” said Kim Jin-woo, an analyst at Korea Investment and Securities.

South Korea was slow to declare its interest in joining the TPP, doing so only in November 2013, when talks among prospective members were already under way. That announcement drew a cool response from Washington, which said Seoul would need to wait until the next round of talks, and voiced concerns about implementation of its trade deal with the US.


While Choi Kyung-hwan, finance minister, on Tuesday promised public hearings on possible entry into the TPP, President Park Geun-hye has not requested that the subject be put on the agenda for her visit to the US in the middle of this month, according to a person familiar with the situation.

But the government should view entry to the TPP as a priority, argued Suh Jin-kyu, researcher at Korea Institute for International Economic Policy. He noted that the pact’s rules could block tariff relief for products made in member countries using South Korean components, as long as Seoul remains outside the club.

“This is critical for Korea, which exports more parts for assembly than finished products,” he said. “Not joining the TPP will hurt its global value chain in the long term.”

I have been looking around for the past few days----does anyone actually have the specifics on TPP's deal? Because I have been looking around the web and best I have found was actually promises and areas to be negotiated instead of the actual deal itself. The information available so far consists of several things:

1. Wikileak (unverified) insist on certain deals on electronic intellectual property. Incidentally, most of the TPP related arguments in US pretty much concentrate around IP issue, instead of trade tariffs. (Which shouldn't be surprising, trade tarriff is a fundamentally part of the US trade barrier system. I don't think there is a US president alive that is brave enough to touch the corporate pie.)
2. Australia's okay with certain IP issues with pharmaceuticals, but not okay with sugar.
3. Japan is mainly concerned with two sectors: automobile and agriculture. (Frankly, I have a hard time to see Japan opening up its agriculture sector for all the US goods, which will pretty much destroy it and the less said about the automobile sector the better)
4. Argument from Vietnam mainly consists of "more foreign investment will likely come to Vietnam".

Basically, I have no hard data to evaluate it.
 
I have been looking around for the past few days----does anyone actually have the specifics on TPP's deal? Because I have been looking around the web and best I have found was actually promises and areas to be negotiated instead of the actual deal itself. The information available so far consists of several things:

1. Wikileak (unverified) insist on certain deals on electronic intellectual property. Incidentally, most of the TPP related arguments in US pretty much concentrate around IP issue, instead of trade tariffs. (Which shouldn't be surprising, trade tarriff is a fundamentally part of the US trade barrier system. I don't think there is a US president alive that is brave enough to touch the corporate pie.)
2. Australia's okay with certain IP issues with pharmaceuticals, but not okay with sugar.
3. Japan is mainly concerned with two sectors: automobile and agriculture. (Frankly, I have a hard time to see Japan opening up its agriculture sector for all the US goods, which will pretty much destroy it and the less said about the automobile sector the better)
4. Argument from Vietnam mainly consists of "more foreign investment will likely come to Vietnam".

Basically, I have no hard data to evaluate it.

We will have to wait to get the actual authoritative data, Tranquilium. It vexes me to have to wait.
 
I have been looking around for the past few days----does anyone actually have the specifics on TPP's deal? Because I have been looking around the web and best I have found was actually promises and areas to be negotiated instead of the actual deal itself. The information available so far consists of several things:

1. Wikileak (unverified) insist on certain deals on electronic intellectual property. Incidentally, most of the TPP related arguments in US pretty much concentrate around IP issue, instead of trade tariffs. (Which shouldn't be surprising, trade tarriff is a fundamentally part of the US trade barrier system. I don't think there is a US president alive that is brave enough to touch the corporate pie.)
2. Australia's okay with certain IP issues with pharmaceuticals, but not okay with sugar.
3. Japan is mainly concerned with two sectors: automobile and agriculture. (Frankly, I have a hard time to see Japan opening up its agriculture sector for all the US goods, which will pretty much destroy it and the less said about the automobile sector the better)
4. Argument from Vietnam mainly consists of "more foreign investment will likely come to Vietnam".

Basically, I have no hard data to evaluate it.
To evalute the TPP, you can look at the fall of CN RMB, stock market, and the fall of none TPP auto makers like Huyndai, Kia.
 
To evalute the TPP, you can look at the fall of CN RMB, stock market, and the fall of none TPP auto makers like Huyndai, Kia.

Chinese stock market:
upload_2015-10-11_1-16-40.png

RMB to USD
upload_2015-10-11_1-17-56.png


Not sure about what indicators would the Korean automakers have, but how is the Chinese stock (which went up after TPP is announced) and RMB to USD ratio (I assume you mean RMB to USD) which has a long term upward trend related to a investor right bill which primarily focuses on IP with some tariff negotiation thrown in? (Which, btw, is still in negotiation)
 
Chinese stock market:
View attachment 263946
RMB to USD
View attachment 263947

Not sure about what indicators would the Korean automakers have, but how is the Chinese stock (which went up after TPP is announced) and RMB to USD ratio (I assume you mean RMB to USD) which has a long term upward trend related to a investor right bill which primarily focuses on IP with some tariff negotiation thrown in? (Which, btw, is still in negotiation)
And now, you need to have a good experience and knowledge in economy to read those charts.

If you cant understand what those chart tell you , then you should learn an economic course till you can understand it.
 
And now, you need to have a good experience and knowledge in economy to read those charts.

If you cant understand what those chart tell you , then you should learn an economic course till you can understand it.
YOu are the one not understanding and even dare to mock others? No wonder Vietnam is still a poor backward state. :D
 
And now, you need to have a good experience and knowledge in economy to read those charts.

If you cant understand what those chart tell you , then you should learn an economic course till you can understand it.

Well, for one thing, the chart trend is opposite to "fall". Look, all I am asking for you to state the relationship between Chinese stock market (which, btw, Shanghai index consists mainly of domestic shares which is not related to foreign investment at all, let alone TPP), Chinese currency (which, btw, is aimed at China-US, China-EU trade, two of the largest partners for China) and TPP (an investor right centered bill originally started by Singapore, Chile, Brunei and New Zealand to facilitate trade between these nations). I just don't see a relationship between them.
 
Well, for one thing, the chart trend is opposite to "fall". Look, all I am asking for you to state the relationship between Chinese stock market (which, btw, Shanghai index consists mainly of domestic shares which is not related to foreign investment at all, let alone TPP), Chinese currency (which, btw, is aimed at China-US, China-EU trade, two of the largest partners for China) and TPP (an investor right centered bill originally started by Singapore, Chile, Brunei and New Zealand to facilitate trade between these nations). I just don't see a relationship between them.
You dont see it, then thats your problem, we can see RMB will fall to half in about 6 years.CN economy will collapse in about 10 years.
 
Non-TPP countries will adapt to deal with TPP countries
 
For TPP members, rich countries will get richer while poor countries will get poorer. Looks like vietnam got screwed big time.
 

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