Offer some details about China Vietnam SCS conflict for PDF friends
Recently, there is a way of saying that the area which 981 working now is the area where Vietnam and Mobil has explored for years and after the exploring Mobil handed the most important data to China, that is why now 981 began to explore in that area. Then Vietnam has no power to resist except raising riot and the result is out of anticipation which the opposite part in Vietnam applied it to undermine VCP.
One can see on the map that the 981 is very near the position where Vietnam and Mobil once worked together when Vietnam considered that China would do nothing if cooperating with US, but this thinking is very simple and naïve. It is doomed from the beginning, compared with Vietnam, Mobil has much more business in China and no doubt Mobil will choose China as his associator.
On 2008 Vietnam and Mobil explored the area and China issued a stern warning, but the exploring did not stop. And the strange thing is that during the same time the cooperation between China and Mobil deepened. In 2013 when deputy general manager of Mobil, also general manger in China of Mobil Mark W. Albers met the president of CNPC ,China National Petroleum Corporation, Zhou Jiping, saying “during the last 5 years, Mobil and CNPC expanded well cooperation in many ways”. How could Mobil make China not worry about his working with Vietnam on SCS, otherwise China would not give so many chances to Mobil doing business in China, what is Mobil promised?
In fact, Mobil declared oil reserve on SCS in 2011 and then no further exploitation due to one, long time of negotiation and two, risk consideration, Mobil certainly understands clearly that it is very hard to collect oil there without Chinese permission, and it is very possible that Mobil sold Vietnam and gave the data to China for exchange, so it is explainable Mobil expanded his business in China while still exploring with Vietnam. And as reported 2013, China and Mobil cooperate on Iraq huge oil field; such international strategic cooperation indicates there was undercover dealing.
The latest news is that one Vietnam fish boat sank, also reported half Vietnam ship were damaged by Chinese attack, showing that Vietnam is too weak again China, and China pressed much more without fearing escalation. That leads the internal divergence in Vietnam. Asking for help from Philippines and Japan can not change SCS situation since Vietnam got only oral assistances. same from the USA's mouth. Then how long can southern part (mostly Vietnam PM) can persist? If don’t stop in time and begin to turn to west, then Chinese backfire would fierce ….. If rational part of Vietnam wins, power of Vietnam PM may limited or even quit.
Vietnam pm went out for outside help when he can not get enough assistance from inside, he may upgrade the situation for his last straw. Situation will worsen but not inevitable to war; However, if China reckons that Vietnam could not amend itself and China has to do something, then Vietnam will suffer.
The game between China and Vietnam shows that small country should not play hand wresting with big country if there is conflict for radical interest. Take the Mobil for example, international group only seeks money and will not offend China for small benefits. Vietnam’s plan failed from the start.
BTW, on 26 May, “zhong ren 1601” left xiao zhou shipment base with loading of 33 pre –construction articles, one of sink box is 27meter long, 20meter wide, 11 high, 4000 ton. Means China is going to constructer huge base in SCS.
Huge sink box is only for huge dock or under earth hangar.