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South China Sea Forum

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It is not an arms race. It is a rational desire to have better defense capabilities than your real and potential adversaries.

Carrier groups provide force projection capabilities, they are offensive measures.
Anti-Ship missile systems to keep the US NAVY out are defensive measures.

When you can explain to me the need for Chinese Marines or PLA elements with air support to be deployed outside of mainland China for defensive purpose that does not involve defending the disputed islands, I would like to hear it.

Why would China subscribe to the idea of Japan having a better navy when China is capable of outdoing them?
That's exactly my point.
Why would China subscribe to the idea of any other naval power in the region. Mainland China is not under threat, nor is the Chinese market that the Pacific perfer over a US one. The only threat to China are the disputed islands it wishes to control.

...you are seeking moral high ground by bashing China.

I don't question China's desire to rise above the US, what I do bring to question is the fact that China's actions have made it's neighbours consider China to be an aggressor rather than a suitable alternative to the US, to provide security and stability in the region. In simple terms, China decided to "jump the gun" with their aggression.
 
Carrier groups provide force projection capabilities, they are offensive measures.
Anti-Ship missile systems to keep the US NAVY out are defensive measures.

When you can explain to me the need for Chinese Marines or PLA elements with air support to be deployed outside of mainland China for defensive purpose that does not involve defending the disputed islands, I would like to hear it.

Without good offensive capabilities, defense means nothing. Nothing for a country as big as China, especially. As I said, China's military development is not to be limited to the region; that's obvious. If this leads to an arms race, so be it.

But I agree, arms race should stop when China achieves greater capabilities than the US/West. Then we will advise the west not to indulge into arms race. Currently, China is only playing catch-up (and beat up, in some fields). East Asia is only one aspect of his development, not the whole of it.

Why would China subscribe to the idea of any other naval power in the region. Mainland China is not under threat, nor is the Chinese market that the Pacific perfer over a US one. The only threat to China are the disputed islands it wishes to control.

No, that's may be true only currently. But national strategy requires (especially for big, capable countries) to get ready and prepare for the worst case scenario. The worst case would be a war with the US (limited or regional, no body knows). The mere existence of the enemy's/adversary's capabilities is enough evidence to seek equal (or more) capabilities. That;s the nature of a great power. China will not listen to advise from smaller powers even though they mean it. China cannot agree to the status quo when it is overshadowed by another country/bloc.

I don't question China's desire to rise above the US, what I do bring to question is the fact that China's actions have made it's neighbours consider China to be an aggressor rather than a suitable alternative to the US, to provide security and stability in the region. In simple terms, China decided to "jump the gun" with their aggression.

It takes two to tango. It is action and reaction. The best strategy is to be proactive. Let the adversary's actions to be conditioned to yours. China is only partially proactive so far. For example, Japan seized the lead when they nationalized disputed islands and forced China into reaction.

I presume, as its capabilities further grow, China will become more proactive, which does not mean aggressive. But it is at the same time unavoidable that some would still consider China's actions to be aggressive. In the end, it is an interest driven world and nobody (I mean nation states) claims ethical behavior until and unless it serves their interest.
 
Without good offensive capabilities, defense means nothing.

That would suggest China requires the ability to invade it's neighbors for adequate defense despite being a nuclear power since 64' with no direct threat to it's mainland.

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Future Chinese Carriers will provide 'Force-Projection' - to intimidate other nations and implement policy by means of force, or the threat thereof, in an area distant from its own territory.

To summarize your statements you argue that China is simply taking a reaction stance in response to the actions of it's neighbors, that the ideology behind the rise of a great world power will facilitate in the creation of offensive capabilities to rival their enemies, so on and so forth. I find it disturbing that you contribute these maneuvers in a way that could be considered letting nature, (or in this case China) take it's course.

However this is not a natural evolution put into motion by Beijing, it's the just the String of Pearls strategy

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Q&A: South China Sea Tensions and the Future of Asean
By Sara Schonhardt

Q&A: South China Sea Tensions and the Future of Asean - Southeast Asia Real Time - WSJ

A simmering dispute between China and some of its Southeast Asian neighbors over the South China Sea flared up last week – sparking deadly riots and protests in Vietnam. China’s increasingly aggressive moves to press its claims to parts of the waters, believed to be rich in oil, has drawn out deep-seated grievances in Vietnam and posed challenges to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, a body formed nearly 50 years ago to ensure peace in the region.

Southeast Asia Real Time asked several experts their thoughts on the current tensions and what they mean for the future security of Southeast Asia. Here are their responses.



Ian Storey, senior fellow specializing in Asian security issues at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore.

WSJ: Is there ever a chance that Asean could adopt the role of a security alliance? And if not, is it time to create a separate grouping that could serve this role?
Mr. Storey: Absolutely not. Asean has eschewed the role of a military alliance since its foundation in 1967. At the time, the five members were all pro-Western and anti-Communist and yet they still rejected the role of a military alliance – now the membership is much more diverse and member states do not perceive a common threat. In general, the prospect of an “Asian NATO” is pretty much close to zero. Why form a military alliance against your largest trade partner?

WSJ: Is Asean maxed out? It wasn’t founded to deal with the kinds of disputes we’ve seen it face in recent years, so has it reached it reached the full extent of its usefulness?

Mr. Storey: No, Asean is not maxed out. It’s still extremely important for the member states, as well as external powers who continue to court it. Asean cannot resolve the South China Sea dispute – only the claimants can do that among themselves, or by submitting the dispute to the International Court of Justice. Asean’s role in the SCS dispute is to promote a conflict management process which aims at reducing tensions and building trust. But after 20 years, the results are mixed, to say the least.

WSJ: How big a challenge to Asean’s legitimacy are the disputes we’re seeing now? What role do countries not involved, such as Indonesia, have to play in calming tensions?
Mr. Storey: To some extent the SCS dispute does put Asean’s credibility on the line. Part of the blame lies with China because of its assertive behavior, and part of the blame lies with Asean itself because of the lack of a strong consensus within the organization on how to deal with China and identify pathways to a resolution.



Carl Thayer, professor humanities and social sciences and an expert on Vietnamese foreign policy in the Australian Defense Force Academy at the University of New South Wales.

WSJ: Can the Vietnamese government stand up for itself enough to calm the anger and protests within the country without forcing China to act even more provocatively?

Mr. Thayer: Yes the Vietnam government has extensive resources to repress any further protests, violent or otherwise, that take place. The Vietnamese government has also moved to assuage China by clamping down and arresting workers involved in the violent attacks on Chinese and other foreign invested properties. But the Vietnamese government will have its work cut out calming nationalist anti-China sentiment. Many of those who protested peacefully in the cities are critical by what they perceive as government inaction.

WSJ: Vietnam obviously can’t stand up militarily to China but also doesn’t seem to have much support from its Asean neighbors. What would it need to do to strike an alliance with the U.S. similar to what the Philippines has? And is this something it desires?
Mr. Thayer: Vietnam will not strike an alliance with the United States under any circumstances. Vietnam is fearful that in the end China and the U.S. will reach agreement over the South China Sea at Vietnam’s expense. Vietnam has a policy of three no’s enshrined in the last two Defense White Papers: no foreign military bases, no military alliances, and no use of a third country against another country. U.S.-Vietnam defense and security relations are very low level.

WSJ: How serious is the current standoff – worse than the border war in 1979? And what might it portend for the future?
Mr. Thayer: The current crisis is the worst eruption in bilateral relations since the 1979 border war, but it hardly bears comparison. In 1977 and 1978, prior to the border war, there were rising deadly incidents along the Sino-Vietnamese border. A quarter of a million ethnic Chinese (or Hoa people) fled into southern China. After the border war, the border was tense, featuring frequent Chinese artillery barrages during Vietnam’s decade-long intervention in Cambodia.

An escalation of violence is always a possibility given the daily confrontation at sea around the oil rig. China will bluster and get its pound of flesh for the violence directed at Chinese factories and workers. China will keep up the pressure long enough to convince Vietnam to adopt a conciliatory and accommodationist posture. When China put the rig in Vietnam’s waters it claimed it would operate from May 2 to August 15. China kept the door open for it to de-escalate on its terms. At some point China will receive a Vietnamese high-level envoy and they will reach terms to manage this situation. Both sides will put a spin on their agreement as part of a face-saving arrangement.



Murray Hiebert, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington D.C.

WSJ: How do Asean’s members relate to China?
Mr. Hiebert: For many countries in Southeast Asia, China is their biggest aid donor, biggest investor, and most important trading partner. Vietnam, for example, gets much of its electricity for the northern part of the country and many of the inputs for its booming garment exports from China. Thailand is Asean’s interlocutor with China.


WSJ: What came out of the recent biannual Asean summit in Myanmar?
Mr. Hiebert: Vietnam clearly wanted Asean leaders to make a strong statement condemning China’s positioning of an oil exploration rig in Vietnam’s exclusive economic zone as violating its sovereignty. In the end, ASEAN officials expressed concern about the tensions and called for peaceful resolution of the dispute. In hindsight, not much more could have been expected. Asean countries have very different views about China. Four countries (Brunei, Malaysia, Philippines, Vietnam) are disputants with China in the South China Sea and for countries like Cambodia and Laos, China is the largest aid donor,” said Mr. Heibert, noting that Singapore and Thailand are “cautious” about irritating China. “Considering these very different perspectives on the role of China in the region, expressions of concern would likely have been all that all 10 Asean countries could have agreed on.
 
PRC triggered a arms race because her greedy desire with territory, this how everyone point at China and condemn her. :coffee:


China has long been considered ASEAN's active partner, says Malaysian PM

by Hu Guangyao

KUALA LUMPUR, May 24 (Xinhua) -- China has long been considered ASEAN's most active partner and this trend looks certain to continue, Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak said on Saturday.

In 2010, ASEAN and China signed a five-year Plan of Action ( 2011-2015) to implement the Joint Declaration on ASEAN-China Strategic Partnership for Peace and Prosperity. Under this plan, close to 200 projects have been undertaken for 2012-2013 alone, Najib said in an exclusive interview with Xinhua.

The implemented activities cover various areas - from agriculture to small and medium-sized enterprises to media cooperation.

People-to-people contacts are also rising significantly, with the increase in the exchange of students between ASEAN and China, the prime minister said.

The ASEAN-China free trade area is also the biggest in the world, he added.

Last year, ASEAN and China celebrated the 10th anniversary of strategic partnership. Many bold proposals were laid out to strengthen ASEAN-China relations.

"Malaysia is encouraged with the strong commitment to ASEAN shown by the new Chinese administration and is supportive of many of the proposals. In this regard, Malaysia looks forward to closer ASEAN-China relations," he said.

"Malaysia becomes chair of ASEAN in 2015 the same year ASEAN is set to become an ASEAN Community. In this regard, China has played a pivotal role in ASEAN's connectivity as well as efforts in narrowing the development gap in the region.

"ASEAN appreciates China's sincere efforts in this endeavor and hopes China will continue to be supportive of ASEAN," Najib said.

"Malaysia believes China will be a strong partner of ASEAN in 2015 and the years to come," he added.
 
Everyone know that the best time to tackle a problem is when it is still small, and no doubts China view Vietnam as a small problem that can be big problem in the future. China has the right to feel this for the following reasons:

By 2016, Vietnam will have six submarines, Sigma frigates, T-90 tanks, Iskander ballistic missiles ( can carry nuclear payload), Bal-E coastal defense systems, Yakhont anti-ship missiles and maybe Gripen fighter planes. With the way things are going, a new Prime Minister and government that are possibly pro-US. Of course, by that time the US will also have a new president, one that is not indecisive and weak like Obama.

Australia (which is usually on the sideline regarding ASEAN matters) has just announced that she will turn her new amphibious assault ships into aircraft carriers that will carry Joint Strike Fighters . I wonder why??!

Vietnam and Phillipine have expressed interest in working together for a common goal. This is good, because the US can passed military know-how to Vietnam through the Phillipine without causing a stir back home.

Even though Vietnam wont be a superpower in the near future, I believe she is on her way to becoming a "middle power". One, that will give any superpowers, including USA and even Russia a good fight in any conflicts.
 
China will always have an oil and gas supply from Muslim countries and China also has so much money to spend on oil. For instant, we export cheap gas to China from Tangguh project (even the price is much much lower than the gas sold in Indonesia). Just keep being a good friend of Muslim Countries and make a closer ties with them. In this way, China economy and military will always get oil and gas support from us. Vietnam is still developing and has so many poor people on it. Just leave them alone. And actually, is there really much oil on that sea ? I don't think so.........Why don't search for the oil first before making a war decision.
 
Everyone know that the best time to tackle a problem is when it is still small, and no doubts China view Vietnam as a small problem that can be big problem in the future. China has the right to feel this for the following reasons:

By 2016, Vietnam will have six submarines, Sigma frigates, T-90 tanks, Iskander ballistic missiles ( can carry nuclear payload), Bal-E coastal defense systems, Yakhont anti-ship missiles and maybe Gripen fighter planes. With the way things are going, a new Prime Minister and government that are possibly pro-US. Of course, by that time the US will also have a new president, one that is not indecisive and weak like Obama.

Australia (which is usually on the sideline regarding ASEAN matters) has just announced that she will turn her new amphibious assault ships into aircraft carriers that will carry Joint Strike Fighters . I wonder why??!

Vietnam and Phillipine have expressed interest in working together for a common goal. This is good, because the US can passed military know-how to Vietnam through the Phillipine without causing a stir back home.

Even though Vietnam wont be a superpower in the near future, I believe she is on her way to becoming a "middle power". One, that will give any superpowers, including USA and even Russia a good fight in any conflicts.
Opps, you're just see on one way that Vietnam was a threat to China !? And China must defend itself from US by play this "oil drilling" game !?
No, sir, read again their claim: sovereignty all in 9-dash-lines, over 80-90% SCS. No law, their rule only ...
China will always have an oil and gas supply from Muslim countries and China also has so much money to spend on oil. For instant, we export cheap gas to China from Tangguh project (even the price is much much lower than the gas sold in Indonesia). Just keep being a good friend of Muslim Countries and make a closer ties with them. In this way, China economy and military will always get oil and gas support from us. Vietnam is still developing and has so many poor people on it. Just leave them alone. And actually, is there really much oil on that sea ? I don't think so.........Why don't search for the oil first before making a war decision.
Did you think they don't have capability to know whether there's oil or not !?
Vietnam has some joint-exploration actions with Exxon Mobil on those areas, and result: still no sign of oil.

The rest: your guess ...
 
The monsoon season starts in August and the SC sea can be a rough place for any ships. What happen if China cant find oil by then? China 's excursion was meant to draw the Vietnamese navy into a conflict near the Paracels Island, where they have an advantage of being close to their base.

The Vietnamese navy know that the real prize is the Spratly Island, thats why they holding back and waiting for the Chinese to get there.

The Vietnamese also know that old scores ( sinking of their fishing boats etc) will be settled in future conflict, that's why they are conserving their strength and holding back from retaliating.

China starting to look bad and she need a war with Vietnam to make her little adventure in the SCS worthwhile.
 
@tbquestion
No need to worry too much for us. Take care of the waters around Natuna Islands EEZ. I am sure that if the chinese are successfully in bullying Vietnam and Philippines, their next target will be Indonesia and Malaysia waters.

You know the chinese claim "nine dash line"?
 
Chinese military building artificial island

By Jaime Laude, The Philippine Star

Posted at 05/27/2014 9:49 AM | Updated as of 05/27/2014 12:38 PM

MANILA, Philippines - China plans to build a $5-billion artificial island envisioned to be a ''super aircraft carrier'' in the Spratlys within the Philippines’ 200-mile exclusive economic zone (EEZ).

The online news site Qianzhan.com reported that the No. 9 Design and Research Institute of China State Shipbuilding Corp. has come up with a proposed design of the artificial island being reclaimed from the sea in the Chinese-occupied Fiery Cross Reef, south of Mabini Reef (South Johnson Reef).

China is building a five-square-kilometer military base three meters above sea level near Fiery Cross Reef.

Estimated construction cost is $5 billion to take 10 years to complete, similar to the construction of a 100,000-ton nuclear-powered aircraft carrier.

The report said the Chinese military has also drawn up plans for occupied Panganiban (Mischief) Reef, located very close to mainland Palawan.

“Construction of the two artificial islands at Mischief Reef and Fiery Cross Reef, will be equivalent to that for building an aircraft carrier, but the strategic gains will be very big,” the report said.

“The artificial island at Fiery Cross Reef will be an unreplaceable military base with great strategic significance due to its location and size. Such a base will realize the value of the South China Sea for China and ensure China’s status in South East Asia.

“If this plan is adopted by the government instead of the plan to seize the Zhongye Island (Pag-Asa Island) back from the Philippines, there will be no war at the South China Sea to affect China’s relations with the US and ASEAN.”

The report said Panganiban Reef will be transformed into a fishery center in the South China Sea, apart from its use for military purposes.

Income from fishing and fish farming are enough to recover the construction costs, the report added.

Panganiban Reef has been transformed into a modern forward naval station for China’s Navy.

It occupies the area in the guise of building a shelter for its fishermen in 1994. – With Paolo Romero

http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/nation/05/27/14/chinese-military-building-artificial-island
 
US senators to visit Vietnam, study East Sea issues
VietNamNet Bridge – Increased tensions in the East Sea will be part of discussions between Vietnamese and American lawmakers during a Hanoi visit this week by a delegation from the Senate Foreign Relations Subcommittee on East Asian and Pacific Affairs.

Chairman of the National Assembly Committee for External Affairs Tran Van Hang said on May 26 the aim of US senators’ visit is to seek ways to promote the comprehensive partnership between Vietnam and the US, and explore Vietnam’s stance towards the East Sea issue after China illegally placed its oil rig Haiyang Shiyou-981 in Vietnam’s exclusive economic zone.

“Some senators know Vietnam very little, and we want them to fully understand Vietnam’s legal basis and sovereign history in the East Sea,” Hang told the media on the sidelines of the ongoing National Assembly session in Hanoi.

He said the US has made positive response to the East Sea tensions, especially statements by the Senate President and other congressmen. He also confirmed Vietnam will take every measure to protect its sovereignty.

During the visit, US senators will learn from Vietnam’s enforcement of the revised Constitution and especially human rights issues. The US Senate is currently examining a Vietnam human rights bill.

Vietnam welcomes US senators’ visit to exchange views on differences so as to promote mutual understanding and deal with human right issues fairly, Hang said.

Source: VOV
 

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