question still is what can NEPAL offer China
is Nepal worth the time and money??
it's clear Nepal is in India sphere of influence and has the upper hand as you pointed out those facts.
Nepal needs heavy investment in infrastructure especially after the earthquake.
Not that much, here are a few things I can see:
- Crackdown harder against Tibetan freedom activist groups living in Nepal. Nepal is already doing that, but they could get them to push harder, perhaps even completely expel them.
- Nepal has a few rivers which could be used for hydro power projects, so maybe a bigger share in those contracts and the power produced.
- Perhaps use Nepal as a launchpad to insert assets or send through weapons and aid, to fringe maoist/separatist groups in India that would serve as irritants.
IMO none of these are really that big, for the amount they have to invest. They already have their big investments coming up in Pak, which is the effective counterbalance to India
There are quite a few challenges ,esp geographical ones that really dont make it worth it:
The existing transport infrastructure is terrible, here is a part of the road that connects Nepal to Tibet,via their biggest trading post Tatopani
And even this small symbolic amount of fuel was blocked for a few days by slight snowfall. Upgrading of the roads will take time and be very hard as the region itself is very mountainous (Himalayas!), and will take a lot of investment, and effort The region being earthquake prone and being at the mercy of weather/seasons does not help either, doubt if these can be overcome with better infrastructure.
Due to the transportation cost,the cost of goods coming in will increase, especially fuel which have to come through China's ports and transported all the way down to Nepal, similarly their export prices will go up too.
Plus it's going to be hard to completely cutoff contact when many of the Nepali elite themselves (apart from 30% of the countries populations who are protesting) have strong family ties here. With many living working and settled here.
So all of this makes it really hard to snap ties, and also doesnt seem worthwhile for China to invest big in Nepal, as it is a dead end that will largely benefit one side.