Some truth about Bangladesh's GDP.

[Nilgiri]

1. Minimum wage of garment workers has gone up 5 times > cannot be manipulated by BD government propaganda

% of total labour force = ?

% of minimum wage earners as % of total garment workers = ?

2. Inflation has risen 2 times > cannot be manipulated by BD government propaganda

But CPI application to household income is taboo subject for govt. Why is that?

Why have they not gotten back to M A Taslim on this topic and released any appendix even for HIES 2016?

Inflation can certainly be manipulated by govt too. Tell me if you know the first thing about who determines the high frequency inputs for its weighting?....which ironically also would be the first thing under review/vetting if BD ever did try to join the SDDS.

I am after all just asking a simple question.....if there is no inflation involved anywhere in computation of constant dollar GDP, the answer to (please explain) part of:

1516 x (please explain) = 1093

should be very darn clear and simple for the two geniuses to explain. They just need to answer...and put money where their mouth is....its really that simple. Was I even querying you to begin with?

@bluesky @SBUS-CXK @Atlas

 

[UKBengali]

Inflation can certainly be manipulated by govt too. Tell me if you know the first thing about who determines the high frequency inputs for its weighting?....which ironically also would be the first thing under review/vetting if BD ever did try to join the SDDS.

No, not to any significant extent as anyone can sample a basket of goods and services and see whether reality correlates with BD government statistics.

 

[Nilgiri]

as anyone can sample a basket of goods and services and see whether reality correlates with BD government statistics.

Not talking about sampling, im talking about weighting (given how weights change according to consumption patterns)....and when it comes to effective inflation past just CPI, there is lot more that cannot be even sampled by the public.

But anyway lets see if any media group of yours has independently sampled just for some limited CPI analysis. Must be easy peasy right?

 

[bluesky]

Inflation can certainly be manipulated by govt too. Tell me if you know the first thing about who determines the high frequency inputs for its weighting?....which ironically also would be the first thing under review/vetting if BD ever did try to join the SDDS.

Is it correct to assume that the current govt manipulation of inflation rate will come out once SDDS is introduced? That will be bad for the reputation of the country.

 

[UKBengali]

Not talking about sampling, im talking about weighting (given how weights change according to consumption patterns)....and when it comes to effective inflation past just CPI, there is lot more that cannot be even sampled by the public.

But anyway lets see if any media group of yours has independently sampled just for some limited CPI analysis. Must be easy peasy right?

Dude, you gone full retard?

Just need to look at prices of stuff like rice, oil, onions, fish, meat, eggs, milk, rent, utilities etc and you have a pretty good idea about inflation rate for the average dude in BD.

Now please stop being boring and move on.

 

[Nilgiri]

Dude, you gone full retard?

Just need to look at prices of stuff like rice, oil, onions, fish, meat, eggs, milk, rent, utilities etc and you have a pretty good idea about inflation rate for the average dude in BD.

Now please stop being boring and move on.

Are you thick in the head or something? I am talking about the sampling required to determine how much the average "dude" (more like industry/sector when it comes to macro GDP inflation) spends between those input in composition/weightage. Does the average dude spend 5% on onions and 5% on eggs, or more like 10% and 3% etc... Just looking at "prices" is silly....eggs could have gone up 2% and onions 10%.....what matters as well is do people spend more of their income on eggs versus onions to have one matter much more in CPI.

Extend this broadly to industry with WPI and then entire economy with its huge array of inputs (far different to CPI basket). You see why only a govt could do it?

Then I ask you if doing it for CPI is so easy (i.e determining the weights)....simply a media group could have done it....or maybe one of your famous NGOs. Are they then adept enough to do a sensitivity analysis to see how influencing the weights affects the final CPI? This is all part of SDDS process for high frequency inputs.

You know who probably did something like it (in macro sense)? SANEM. We all know what they have to say lately about it.

 

[UKBengali]

Are you thick in the head or something? I am talking about the sampling required to determine how much the average "dude" (more like industry/sector when it comes to macro GDP inflation) spends between those input in composition/weightage. Does the average dude spend 5% on onions and 5% on eggs, or more like 10% and 3% etc... Just looking at "prices" is silly....eggs could have gone up 2% and onions 10%.....what matters as well is do people spend more of their income on eggs versus onions to have one matter much more in CPI.

Extend this broadly to industry with WPI and then entire economy with its huge array of inputs (far different to CPI basket). You see why only a govt could do it?

Then I ask you if doing it for CPI is so easy (i.e determining the weights)....simply a media group could have done it....or maybe one of your famous NGOs. Are they then adept enough to do a sensitivity analysis to see how influencing the weights affects the final CPI? This is all part of SDDS process for high frequency inputs.

You know who probably did something like it (in macro sense)? SANEM. We all know what they have to say lately about it.

Know what you mean but a simple sample like I say would give a very good idea.
It is unlikely that there would be massive difference in inflation over 10 years for the things I suggested.
You are trying to make something simple very complicated.

 

[Nilgiri]

Is it correct to assume that the current govt manipulation of inflation rate will come out once SDDS is introduced? That will be bad for the reputation of the country.

If there is magic wand that instantly makes BD submit to SDDS standard, there will be stuff that shows that likely though.

However govts normally have transition period to reform etc themselves before they apply to SDDS so they dont look too silly....or take a big hit. I will have to look last time a country moved from GDDS to SDDS....have not read much on it....because basic idea is that the govt itself organically introduces sampling regimen of certain things more frequently, establish the data standard itself internally (along with the cross correlation stuff)...and then it basically forms a body of data over some time that it then uses to join SDDS by checking all the boxes.

I think the rebasing of GDP, stabilising growth bit more diversely and then improve credit rating a notch will be all what BAL will try do first if its interested in then going for SDDS. But is it interested in it? Rebasing of GDP I know its working on it (since its assumed it will improve/ground GDP figure more)...but what transition period will be for BD fully for this kind of thing, we have to wait and see.

Know what you mean but a simple sample like I say would give a very good idea.
It is unlikely that there would be massive difference in inflation over 10 years for the things I suggested.
You are trying to make something simple very complicated.

I dunno, you tell me what you think CPI % is of core inflation and what % core inflation is of total inflation....on average for a basic developing country?

I say this because food and various types of energy play big roles in sensitivity for developing countries. You weight them just a bit different, and you can get much different effective inflation rate when computing the real nominal GDP etc. That is why it would need much more underlying frequency of output regarding the relevant data. More data log = good (less scope for "guessing" bounds etc).

If BD is already doing that, there is no reason not to start joining SDDS and release a white paper on the time frame for it. If not...then basically individual is free to gauge credibility of the data handlers for themselves. Can just agree to disagree and move on.

I worked with stochastic control which models this kind of stuff but for very different field. Economics in the end is similar process control for the data (of say modelling a continuum into micro parts to predict/estimate) when it comes to macro computation.

(This all again has nothing to do with me asking these two members if they would be so kind as to give me whats the basic multiplier in between the current and constant dollar GDP calculation - if their assertion is its not inflation)

 

[mmr]

Are you thick in the head or something? I am talking about the sampling required to determine how much the average "dude" (more like industry/sector when it comes to macro GDP inflation) spends between those input in composition/weightage. Does the average dude spend 5% on onions and 5% on eggs, or more like 10% and 3% etc... Just looking at "prices" is silly....eggs could have gone up 2% and onions 10%.....what matters as well is do people spend more of their income on eggs versus onions to have one matter much more in CPI.

Extend this broadly to industry with WPI and then entire economy with its huge array of inputs (far different to CPI basket). You see why only a govt could do it?

Then I ask you if doing it for CPI is so easy (i.e determining the weights)....simply a media group could have done it....or maybe one of your famous NGOs. Are they then adept enough to do a sensitivity analysis to see how influencing the weights affects the final CPI? This is all part of SDDS process for high frequency inputs.

You know who probably did something like it (in macro sense)? SANEM. We all know what they have to say lately about it.

Why IMF or World bank accepting inflated numbers provided by Bd instead try to go back to drawing board and do survey them self. We cant trust BAL government since most of the institutions that suppose to free from government intervention is already been destroyed.

 

[Nilgiri]

Why IMF or World bank accepting inflated numbers provided by Bd instead try to go back to drawing board and do survey them self. We cant trust BAL government since most of the institutions that suppose to free from government intervention is already been destroyed.

Its not in IMF and world bank to have mandate on this (rejecting a country data out of sight through some intrusive vetting process). There is of course lot of inherent basis/truth in BD numbers as well (just 1%, 3%, 5% or whatever level of distortion, intended or not...can have a sensitive effect)...within envelope set of the basic standards used (and then numbers reported).

The higher intent of a country to seek truth on its macroeconomy should not be questioned all that much....and only so much you can do (fudge/slip up wise, intent or not) in longer time frame too given stuff accumulates in places and will be seen inevitably with time (which is why I say give few more years and a decade to see what holds up and what needs to be improved).

The problem is that the 2 "genius" ppl in here automatically assume that because I said "inflation laundered"...I assigned a 100% intent (from say BBS) to it. It could be any shade of grey between 0 and 100% for that as to why there is a drift from physical consumption to some stated money value in some unit of currency (this is the broad "effective" inflation envelope I reference). Who knows where that dial is exactly...I just think its somewhere in the fuzzy middle given BD corruption level (and you do get access to some more money via debt in short term esp)....but it could be lot lower or higher...I dunno.

I say let BD develop more and we will see then (rebasing will hopefully help explain some of it in interim - i.e what is effectively inflation now shows up as a new sector of industry etc - backed by hard taxation and consumption data).

BD basically needs to broaden lot more and invest outside lot more and reform lot more...to get more data streams on this stuff. Right now there is simply an awful mismatch between composition of what BD exports (and why/how it exports that) and what BD consumes internally....that makes direct nominal application of USD as a reference (when comparing to more diverse developing countries that have more level playing field competition for their export make up) quite inadequate. This is all part of reason why when constant dollars used or PPP is used....BD takes a hit compared to other peer developing countries.

Actually I am quite positive about Bangladesh (as much I am wary and contemptuous towards some members here because of their rush to impose some full monolith narrative)....but it just need some time in this current inflection point.

For example if there is 360 million in FDI that BD has invested into others as recorded by 2017 and it come from even lower beginnings from just few years prior. How does that change in 2018 and 2019 and 2020....will it follow linear trend....or will it be exponential for some time etc? These are all useful things to see with some years because it gives idea of the "hard" projection BD economy can do to better stabilise for the upcoming important decade for region broadly (2020 - 2030).

Such projection is always much better quality correlated (because it doesnt go thru any large set of internal churning govt hands with agenda) with the meaningful "GDP" of the country because its fully vetted by default from another side outside of BD itself....because what you invest in another, the other records it....what you sell and buy from another....they also record from their end. Its top quality stuff to monitor and correlate in the end.

 

[Buddhistforlife]

What is your proof or logic behind such accusation that Bangladesh's GDP is manipulated by inflation? Can you explain a bit?

In other thread, you have said that, Bangladesh's inflation is more that govt. publish data and it get ad up with GDP. Do you have any proof for that? I have responded in that post of your's that, it is not possible, as inflation is not something which is a secret matter only govt. has clue, many organizations, both Bangladeshi and foreign like IMF, World bank, ADB monitor inflation.

And another fact is, GDP calculation by IMF, World Bank already deduct inflation rate in Taka before calculating BD's GDP. What they add is not the inflation of Taka (at per BAL instruction according to you and your psycho friend) but Dollar inflation. Which is same for every country and add in a similar fashion in all country's GDP figure in each proceeding year by IMF and World Bank. So, Bangladesh is not getting any undue advantage here compared to other countries.


Have I ever claimed all things in Bangladesh are just perfect? Bangladesh has many problems. And need for correction. Tell me which country has not? Go to American or British media. They are also lamenting about poor infrastructure, trash problem, homelessness, drug abuse etc. Go to France or Spain, there is a big concern over tourist site pollution with waste, garbage etc. Bangladesh is an under developed, poor country have those problem many times more. Why you forget this fact while harping your broken record non stop? What you are harping here is not problem but symptoms of underdevelopment. Bangladesh is gradually improving and that what's matter most. Bangladesh in it's current developmental stage, we can not expect efficiency and order on a same level like Japan. It will take times. Different country took developmental take off at different period of history. Japan as a country, started it's development journey more than a century ago compared to Bangladesh.

I give importance to GDP growth because, at the end of the day, it is the most important metric to judge a country whether it is developing or not. If a country can maintain high growth rate for a long time, then those symptoms you are harping about(water, sanitation,road infrastructure,tourism infrastructure) will be easy to sort out. And if you don't have economic growth to begin with and economy remain stagnant, then those symptoms can not be cured.

And Bangladesh as a country still not ready to welcome any foreign tourists. Tourism was never in the head of our policymaker. It has no tourist friendly infrastructure, visa policy, marketing, nothing. Where did you find the revelation that I was expecting 1 million tourists or waiting for amusement park in Cox's Bazar? In your wet dream? If anything, I said in some old posts, Bangladesh should not be dependent on tourism even if it have chance to become a big destination, because tourism is a sector very vulnerable to political unrest or terrorist sabotage. Both of which we can not guaranty that will not happen in Bangladesh. But if tourism develop in a normal pace with the development of other sectors of economy, than it's OK.

Listen Bangladesh is indeed developing and growing but some mad people of Bangladesh is comparing Bangladesh with Japan, China, Singapore and Switzerland which is pure madness. Dude China is a superpower and there are hundreds of countries who are more developed than Bangladesh. I am not saying that Bangladesh can't become like China but there are literally hundreds of nations Bangladesh will have to overtake in order to be able to compete with China. Last time I checked there is not a single Bangladeshi university in the list of 400 Asian universities whereas Tribhuvan university made it to the list so Bangladesh needs to do more for the education sector too.

Bangladesh is growing no doubt about that but it is a total madness to say that Bangladesh is in the same league as China, Japan, Singapore and Switzerland.

 

[UKBengali]

Listen Bangladesh is indeed developing and growing but some mad people of Bangladesh is comparing Bangladesh with Japan, China, Singapore and Switzerland which is pure madness. Dude China is a superpower and there are hundreds of countries who are more developed than Bangladesh. I am not saying that Bangladesh can't become like China but there are literally hundreds of nations Bangladesh will have to overtake in order to be able to compete with China. Last time I checked there is not a single Bangladeshi university in the list of 400 Asian universities whereas Tribhuvan university made it to the list so Bangladesh needs to do more for the education sector too.

Bangladesh is growing no doubt about that but it is a total madness to say that Bangladesh is in the same league as China, Japan, Singapore and Switzerland.

Dude, anyone here said that BD is in the same league as China, let alone Japan, Singapore or Switzerland?

Per capita PPP according to IMF(2018):

China is at 73 out of 185
BD is at 136 out of 185


Now you know why BD is at only 136 and China is at 73?

BD gained independence in 1971 whereas China came out of civil war in 1949 and has been free to enrich itself for 22 more years.

Yes BD has a long way to go but there is no good reason why BD cannot have Chinese living standards 22 years down the line.

 

[bluesky]

Dude indeed you sound like some asylum seeker sneaked in Canada and somehow got that with asylum seeking!!

Whether I am king or live in slum, I don’t need to describe you. If someone has class and status they don’t brag about it. Looking at your language it appears you are from bottom of the gutter!!

Just tell you one thing from Canada I have obtained a credit card named World Elite MasterCard. Just confirm me in your life time if you can get that!! And in Dhaka my parents live in a vip area.

Bold part: However, you yourself are bragging here that proves you belong to the gutter class by your own definition. I wonder what other the people will define you, a slum dweller or a VVI Person? People here do not really know each other and they come to kill time. Some idiots like me try to learn, though. What about you? Always talking tart but does it prove a good upbringing. Rather, it shows belonging to a nouveau rich class but without a class.

Please control your talking style and do not think you have any jurisdiction over anyone else. You yourself are just another unknown person yet you have the audacity to doubt other people's nationality and patriotism. Empty vessel sounds much, white man.

 

[Black_cats]

Bold part: However, you yourself are bragging here that proves you belong to the gutter class by your own definition. I wonder what other the people will define you, a slum dweller or a VVI Person? People here do not really know each other and they come to kill time. Some idiots like me try to learn, though. What about you? Always talking tart but does it prove a good upbringing. Rather, it shows belonging to a nouveau rich class but without a class.

Please control your talking style and do not think you have any jurisdiction over anyone else. You yourself are just another unknown person yet you have the audacity to doubt other people's nationality and patriotism. Empty vessel sounds much, white man.

Please stop this behavior of poking your nose into something all of a sudden without knowing the context.

Did you even read the post why I said that? How many times you have seen me bragging about something?

So please oil your own machine. It’s not mandatory to know each other and pass comment like the way you do.

My above post was due to this message posted by one of the three cheer leaders who liked your post where both of them have been brought in line by the Bangladeshi members and warned by Mod for in appropriate behavior.

Please don’t bring irrelevant topics here like last time you posted picture of 1960s, 70s and 1980s where one was black and white picture to show Bangladesh is backward.

you sound like some one who live in Dhaka slum. Have you ever been to any where outside your slum? This guy acting like he is King of BD lmao...and yes i came here through north west passage by boat and Justin help me granted asylum. I am now proud Canadian.