cross post:
Geopolitics of Eurasia+ region | Page 3
The recent changes in Ukraine, annexation of Crimea by Russia and possible further annexation of Eastern Ukraine has surfaced the following trends that has been brewing for some years:
- NATO's eastward expansion is ongoing, but it hit a brick wall in Ukraine, essentially it will end in Ukraine and not go further east
- Russia is in a collision course with the West, so there is a good chance that Russia will become closer to China and other Asian nations to its South, there is diminished chance of Russia ever joining EU in the very long term
- chances of a Eurasian Union is now diminished as well, as neighbor states with significant Russian population will fear Crimea style annexation. Kazakhstan fits this bill perfectly. There is rumor I heard from Kazakhs that Nazarbayev moved the capital to Astana in northern Kazakhstan, which is more heavily populated by Russians, just so that there is more Kazakhs there to bring some demographic balance, to prevent a future breakaway situation like Crimea. It seems that he is a far sighted man after all
- there is now a possibility for a Southern Eurasian Union, including 5 former Soviet Stans, Turkey, Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Azerbaijan
- Mongolia may return to China voluntarily
- Georgia, Armenia, Belarus and Moldova may opt the EU/NATO route, if they see success with Ukraine in EU/NATO
So, in summary, both US/EU's relentless push for NATO/EU expansion in Eastern Europe and Russia's apprehension and nervous response will increase the likelihood of above situation. This is great news for non-Western countries, as the fear of Russia's eventual joining of EU has been removed. This is also bad news for countries who are banking on the West, such as Japan, India etc. Russia moving closer to China is also another bad news for India, as it will mean that India will no longer be able to balance alliance between Russia and the West. The Russian door will eventually close for India and India will find itself at the mercy of the West, for advanced weapon supply, which will be far more expensive than Russian weapons systems.