Should Bangladesh worry about the Indian elections?

[Homo Sapiens]

Most importantly if any mass scale migration from Bangladesh to India has happened you would see in each and house there is someone in India which you will never find. Now 12-13 million Bangladeshis live abroad and most houses has someone who lives broad which is not the case in case of India.

This is also I wonder. There are 10 million overseas Bangladeshi scattered all across the world. We keenly feel their absence in Bangladesh. In every extended family, there are at least one who is away. They are remitting money or coming back for vacation or going. It is a huge activity surrounding it. But I have never found any Bangladeshi Muslim who has gone to India for settlement or working(For Bangladeshi Hindus, it is different, many of them have relatives in India due to partition legacy and they frequently go to India, some even go to settle there) .

I am not denying that some Bangladeshi Muslims are not working in India. But their number is so low that it do not come under our notice. Similarly we do not get any substantial remittance from India. India do not feature among the country we get the most remittance. If 20 or 30 million Bangladeshis were really living in India, it would have made a huge impact upon Bangladesh. It's effect would have been visible all over Bangladesh. But nothing such thing visible in Bangladesh. So , my question is, who are those 20/30 million ''illegal Bangladeshi'' in India? Are they ghosts?

 

[namefield_empty]

Strong determinant of Fertility rate is -

1. Age at marriage
2. Spacing of children
3. Duration of marriage
4. Caste and Religion
5. Economic status
6. Family planning methods adopted, and a host of others
There are no strong or weak determinants, policy makers take everything into account.

TFR in Assam is 2.3 and as for the age specific fertility rates i am attaching few screenshots, decide for yourself

^ cc @Black_cats

 

[Black_cats]

1. Age at marriage
2. Spacing of children
3. Duration of marriage
4. Caste and Religion
5. Economic status
6. Family planning methods adopted, and a host of others
There are no strong or weak determinants, policy makers take everything into account.

TFR in Assam is 2.3 and as for the age specific fertility rates i am attaching few screenshots, decide for yourself
View attachment 557677 View attachment 557678 View attachment 557679

^ cc @Black_cats

What you have shared just validate my claim. It's the higher muslim growth rate along with Christian and tribes compared to hindus making the total percentage growth among muslims. Young group has higher percentage growth.

 

[namefield_empty]

I am not denying that some Bangladeshi Muslims are not working in India. But their number is so low that it do not come under our notice. Similarly we do not get any substantial remittance from India.

Here

 

[Black_cats]

Here
View attachment 557688

That is business expenses sent by Indian businesses. There are not enough legal channel to send out money to Bangladesh easily.

That is discussed before. Business expenses is considered at the category of remittance.

Bangladesh Government does not even consider that as remittance. India is not even in the list.

https://www.bb.org.bd/econdata/wagermidtl.php

 

[namefield_empty]

What you have shared just validate my claim. It's the higher muslim growth rate along with Christian and tribes compared to hindus making the total percentage growth among muslims. Young group has higher percentage growth.

No, your interpretation is all over the place. Graphs suggest that in an comparable age group across religious communities it is the Muslims having a higher fertility rate compared to the Hindus. Keep in mind the p value of less than .05 which pretty much seals the deal.

 

[Black_cats]

No, your interpretation is all over the place. Graphs suggest that in an comparable age group across religious communities it is the Muslims having a higher fertility rate compared to the Hindus. Keep in mind the p value of less than .05 which pretty much seals the deal.

What about Christian and other tribes having higher fertility rate? It’s a trend among poor and uneducated of the society.

 

[namefield_empty]

That is business expenses sent by Indian businesses. There are not enough legal channel to send out money to Bangladesh easily.

That is discussed before. Business expenses is considered at the category of remittance.

Bangladesh Government does not even consider that as remittance. India is not even in the list.

https://www.bb.org.bd/econdata/wagermidtl.php

Nope, personal remittances are clubbed too, and if we count the amount sent via informal channels the figure will only rise. You are free to disagree, but that won't negate facts.

 

[Homo Sapiens]

1. Age at marriage
2. Spacing of children
3. Duration of marriage
4. Caste and Religion
5. Economic status
6. Family planning methods adopted, and a host of others
There are no strong or weak determinants, policy makers take everything into account.

These are all outcomes of Female secondary education and urbanization. I have done quite a study about this things. Researchers have tried to identify the core elements of modern fertility behavior and they have come to conclusion of two core elements. -

1.Female secondary education.
2.Urbanization.

Female education, Secondary and higher changes the social norm about how many children a woman expect. A highly educated woman will obviously marry latter, have less potential years of child bearing, will be more carrier focused, space out the birth, will seek fulfillment of life by other means other than seeking to give birth a large number children, will be more aware about the hazards of frequent birth, more aware about contraception, more positive about female autonomy and choice. In one word , it change the entire social norm about having children and positively reinforces these values in each generation.

Two, Urbanization make the children a burden rather than an asset. In rural areas, Children are seen as an extra pair of hands to work in agricultural farms. But in urban areas, children is just an extra mouth to feed, a burden to house, cloth, educate to make them a productive citizen suitable for modern world. In high cost urban environment, a children is a tremendous draining of resources and labor for any parent. So parents are forced to lower their size of family willingly or unwillingly. Urbanization also weaken the authority of religious institution, community elders to dictate or influence the people's desired number of child. In nuclear family in urban setting, there is no grand parents or parents like figure to inject the traditional norms of child bearing among the couples. So, all these factor lower fertility rate in urban areas. Once urban areas set for small family in any urbanized country, it influence the rural areas to follow the same.

 

[namefield_empty]

What about Christian and other tribes having higher fertility rate? It’s a trend among poor and uneducated of the society.

Christians are a mere 3% of the population in Assam, most of the tribes practice their version of Hinduism-Animism. They don't even make a dent in the scheme of things.

 

[Black_cats]

Christians are a mere 3% of the population in Assam, most of the tribes practice their version of Hinduism-Animism. They don't even make a dent in the scheme of things.

It’s not about making dent. It’s about fertility rate and population growth. It’s higher than Muslim. Where as Muslim as average or lower than average growth rate than rest of Indian Muslim. Just because it is making a dent on the ego of extremist Hindus nothing can be done about that. Ask the Hindus to grow like rest of Indian Hindus. Muslim growth rate in total population will not be much. Else whining is not help much as sooner or later Muslim will be majority in Assam.

 

[namefield_empty]

Two, Urbanization make the children a burden rather than an asset. In rural areas, Children are seen as an extra pair of hands to work in farms. But in urban areas, children is just an extra mouth to feed, a burden to house, clothed, educate to make them a productive citizen suitable for modern world. In high cost urban environment, a children is a tremendous draining of resources and labor for any parents. So parents are forced to lower their size of family willingly or unwillingly. Urbanization also weaken the authority of religious institution, community elders to dictate or influence the people's desired number of child. In nuclear family in urban setting, there is no grand parents or parents like figure to inject the traditional norms of child bearing among the couples. So, all these factor lower fertility rate in urban areas. Once urban areas set for small family in any country, it influence the rural areas to follow the same.

Agreed. In agrarian countries like India and Bangladesh that is a herculean task. Jobs won't magically open up for them in the manufacturing and service sectors overnight, would take a long while to accomplish. We would first need to impart skill based vocational training to them, private sector will have to open up arms aided by public investment. Otherwise immigration in such scale will only clog up our cities, causing environmental degradation and resources depletion. Your capital city Dhaka, and Guwahati in Assam are prime examples of such ill conceived moves. It is much better alternative to build smart and modern villages/towns with all amenities, while simultaneously plan ahead to build greenfield sister cities to lessen the burden on our economic hubs.

Ask the Hindus to grow like rest of Indian Hindus.

That is the crux of the problem, we in Assam don't have the habit fathering 4-5 kids like the muslims or many from north India. And why should we try to match your folly. We don't want to end up with a population density of 1100/km². This is precisely the reason why other north eastern states like Nagaland, Mizoram and Manipur do not want Bengali Muslims to settle on their lands. We may not have learnt our lesson, but they sure have looking at our Assam.

 

[Bilal9]

Guys I think the crux of the issue is not whether Muslim population is growing in Assam at double the rate of Hindus (for obvious reasons because they are uneducated, poor and marginalized in India, unlike in Bangladesh). I think this claim is also manufactured by Hindutva types.

The issue is SOME folks (clearly those that are religiously biased) made an issue with this manufactured claim. They are trumpeting that Muslims are like a fifth column betrayal-prone community in India and they should be stripped of citizenship, which is FAAAR from the truth. In India these days, nonsense prevails.

Like @Homo Sapiens bhai and others have suggested, they should deal with it constructively instead of further marginalizing these folks and also instead of trying to strip Muslims living for five generations in India of Indian citizenship.

No matter how tough any Indian govts. communalist approach to pressure a large minority - it won't work. The amazing thing is that these Hindutva folks still persist.

 

[Nilgiri]

Want to know another thing "manufactured" by "hindutva groups" @Axomiya_lora ?

Bangladeshi fertility rate once they leave their swamp of fake number delusion and are measured by actual 3rd party credible country:

Remember to never believe the BBS hogwash willy nilly, they are far from the best fit line globally for a reason when you compare what they can easily lie on to what is harder to lie on:

It is fundamentally a country of liars at its root....they dont want to deal with their peasant uprising if actual real numbers come out. Election rigging is just another part of this objective.

 

[Black_cats]

Want to know another thing "manufactured" by "hindutva groups" @Axomiya_lora ?

Bangladeshi fertility rate once they leave their swamp of fake number delusion and are measured by actual 3rd party credible country:

Remember to never believe the BBS hogwash willy nilly, they are far from the best fit line globally for a reason when you compare what they can easily lie on to what is harder to lie on:

It is fundamentally a country of liars at its root....they dont want to deal with their peasant uprising if actual real numbers come out. Election rigging is just another part of this objective.

Again epic fail. As discussed number of times early marriage and having more than 2 children are completely two different thing. Early marriage is still a trend among the poor of the society to marry their daughter early as it’s a big responsibility. Naturally after marriage they have children. But since 1970s Government has taken measure to control the population growth. Now you will hardly find families who are having 3-4 children even among the poor. So that data does not hold for Bangladesh as no other countries has taken measures like Bangladesh did which also includes activity of the NGO at the grassroots level. Plus woman empowerment and participation of them at workforce played major role as well.

This is video from 2003 which said what happened in Bangladesh is nothing less than a miracle and has shown where it happened and how.