Should Bangladesh worry about the Indian elections?

[Black_cats]

Should Bangladesh worry about the Indian elections?
Ziauddin Choudhury

• Published at 12:01 am May 1st, 2019

A marathon process over six weeks REUTERS


Despite the apparently friendly relations with India, there still remain unresolved issues between the two countries

A news report of a well-known Bangladeshi film actor having his visa revoked for India for his alleged participation in a voting campaign for a West Bengal candidate in the ongoing parliamentary elections is both amusing and instructive.

It is amusing because, to some of us, it looks like the political interests of India and Bangladesh are interlocked. It is instructive because the incident should show to all of us where to draw a line in our enthusiasm in demonstrating love for our fellow Bengalis on the other side.

I do not know the fallout of this ban for the actor, but I do know that it will have some impact on Indian perception of active interest of Bangladesh in Indian elections. By Indian perception, I mean the view of the ruling party.

A Bangladeshi film actor’s campaign support for a particular candidate in Indian elections may not matter in the larger scheme of things for India. But it does raise a question whether an individual Bangladeshi’s open declaration of support for an opposition candidate is a barometer of Bangladesh’s wishes for a change in India.

Perhaps there are wishes that a change in government in India could bring a change in our bilateral relations. But the wishes for a government in the more powerful neighbouring country that looks upon its smaller neighbours with a more benevolent eye may not be out of place. What may be out of place is to expect that any country will sacrifice its own interests to accommodate the wishes of its neighbouring countries.

Therefore, dancing for a particular political party or expecting that party to win the next elections in India will do us no good.

The political party that ruled the Indian political space as well as the government for much of the time since Indian independence has been Congress. The leadership of this party was at the helm during the crisis of 1971, and it has been more than sympathetic to Bangladesh, both in words and action. It is the iron personality of Indira Gandhi and her party that stood solidly behind our struggle for liberation and saw us through that critical period. Our leaders in return have expressed their gratitude to this party leadership in returning the friendship via many bilateral treaties and international alliances.

A critical flaw in this relationship has been mistaking personal relationships between the founders of our country with the political personalities of that time (who happened to belong to Indian Congress) as a permanent relationship between two countries. There is no doubt that a strong personal relationship between Indira Gandhi and Sheikh Mujibur Rahman was a driver in our bilateral relationship, but that relationship did not or could not supplant our national interests.

It took decades to implement the bilateral agreement on land borders that was agreed upon soon after our liberation between the two countries. The personal relationship between the two leaders was not enough to solve our water-sharing agreement on Ganges and Teesta. Yet, we continued to deceive ourselves by harking back to “close” personal relationships that once existed between the leadership of the two countries during our independence.

In our blind view, we forget that there is no perennial government ruled by a single party. India is a democracy, and its voters decide who they send to power. In the past 50 years or so of our existence, we had seen seven prime ministers in India who did not belong to Congress (even though a few of them did not last more than a year). But they all, including the current incumbent, belonged to political opponents of Congress. Can anyone say our bilateral relationship suffered during the tenure of any of these non-Congress prime ministers?

It is difficult to prognosticate the final results of ongoing parliamentary elections in India. This is a marathon of seven phases spread over six weeks. The current ruling party does not have a stellar report card in its first term, but it can crow about success of the economy and growth. Its communal image notwithstanding, the party’s iconic leader has a vast brood of loyal supporters who can and will run a relentless campaign for the party.

Compared with this, the leadership of the main opposition is relatively young and politically inexperienced. It is a battle between a politically shrewd and experienced leader and a youth who is banking on the charisma of a family name associated with Indian freedom.

It may be premature, but judging from accounts in the Indian press and other international observations, it may not be that Indian voters will topple the current leadership from its position. It may not be a repeat of 2015 results with a landslide for BJP, but it will not be another Congress government at the centre this time around.

On our side, we have to recognize that personal closeness between leaders of countries does matter in forming bonds and understandings. But this is not a substitute for fundamental aspects of any bilateral relationship, which is based on each country’s own interest. These interests are best achieved by maturity of statesmanship, strategic positioning, and deeper understanding of the views and policies of the other country.

Governments come and go, but countries and people remain for long. With impending changes in India, our leaders need also to rise up to the challenges of new relationships and new dialogues. Our rhetoric needs to be supported by plans, both tactical and strategic, to keep bilateral relations mutually beneficial.

Despite the apparently close friendly relations with India in the last decades, there still remain unresolved issues between the two countries, water sharing included. India also has some unmet wishes, including transit and trans-shipment, and concerns over terrorism. A new government in India will look upon these with as much earnestness as the one before.

All of these require deft and competent handling on our side. I hope we will be ready, both politically and technically, when the change comes.

Ziauddin Choudhury has worked in the higher civil service of Bangladesh early in his career, and later for the World Bank in the US.

https://www.dhakatribune.com/opinio...d-bangladesh-worry-about-the-indian-elections

 

[mb444]

BD needs to keep its eye open. India basically is an adversarial nation that we need to manage. It does not matter who is in power.

West Bengals ie relevant in that it represents our strategic depth. We need to actively engage to ensure parties professing to bangali nationalism and secularism remains in power.

 

[Aryan0395]

I do not know the fallout of this ban for the actor, but I do know that it will have some impact on Indian perception of active interest of Bangladesh in Indian elections. By Indian perception, I mean the view of the ruling party.

A Bangladeshi film actor’s campaign support for a particular candidate in Indian elections may not matter in the larger scheme of things for India. But it does raise a question whether an individual Bangladeshi’s open declaration of support for an opposition candidate is a barometer of Bangladesh’s wishes for a change in India.

This is literally what beating around the bush means.
Author of this article cant bring himself to say that the political parties for which Bangladeshi actors were campaigning wanted to get the votes of illegal migrants who have been settled in West bengal and Assam, and have been provided voter id and aadhar cards by the politicians.
Such a textbook case of flipping the truth to peddle propaganda.
No it doesnt change the relationship of India and Bangladesh. We have issues and we have settled them.

 

[namefield_empty]

BJP coming to power in West Bengal assembly elections, though somewhat unfeasable at the moment but the parliamentary results will throw some light, will put Bangladesh in a certain degree of predicament. Outstanding issues like Teesta river water sharing may find an amicable solution at last yet on the other hand they are certain to push for NRC in WB just like in Assam.

illegal migrants who have been settled in West bengal and Assam, and have been provided voter id and aadhar cards by the politicians.

NRC if implemented properly can weed out the migrants to a certain extent, problem in WB is that there can not an any cut off date set like in Assam. These illegal immigrants inspite of their voter ids and all will be caught when asked to furnish legacy data of their forefathers.

 

[Homo Sapiens]

BJP coming to power in West Bengal assembly elections, though somewhat unfeasable at the moment but the parliamentary results will throw some light, will put Bangladesh in a certain degree of predicament. Outstanding issues like Teesta river water sharing may find an amicable solution at last yet on the other hand they are certain to push for NRC in WB just like in Assam.


NRC if implemented properly can weed out the migrants to a certain extent, problem in WB is that there can not an any cut off date set like in Assam. These illegal immigrants inspite of their voter ids and all will be caught when asked to furnish legacy data of their forefathers.

NRC in West Bengal would be even less effective than Assam. It was assumed that a large number of Bengali speaking Muslim in Assam will fail this test due to Assamese nationalist pressure and general hostile environment. But Bengali Muslims there quite successfully able to established their Indian roots. Rejection rate in Bengali Muslim dominated districts are lower than other districts. Our of 4 million left out in NRC, 2.7 million are Hindus and 1.3 million are Muslim. BJP will done everything to protect those 2.7 million Hindus irrespective of what Assamese nationalists want. And most of the 1.3 million Muslims are woman and Children whose other family members included in NRC. So it is expected that, they to will be included after some formalities. So it is unlikely that anything more than half a million Muslims will be left out after final exercise. Most probably they will stuck in limbo for many years or fled to other states.

Now West Bengal. Unlike Assam, everyone in West Bengal is Bengali. Bengali Hindus there have no problem to grant citizenship to Bangladeshi origin Hindus which was not the case with Assamese nationalist Hindus. And Muslims in West Bengal will not have any problem proving their Indian roots. Because a lot of Muslim majority regions left out in West Bengal despite Partition supposed them to be included in then Eastern Pakistan. It is well known fact and nobody can deny their rightful citizenship. They will be even more successful establishing their claim of citizenship than Assamese Bengali Muslims. So NRC in West Bengal if ever implemented, would be even a bigger joke. Most importantly there is no widespread agitation in West Bengal for NRC like Assam. So, it's chance of happening is quite remote. Drumming about it is nothing but BJP's attempt to grab vote by instigating Hindu communalism. Whether they can gain enough Hindu support in West Bengal for this cause is yet to be seen. Because Bengali Hindus in West Bengal are generally less communal minded than other parts of India.

 

[Bilal9]

Like @mb444 bhai said, we need to 'manage' whomever gets elected, especially in neighboring states.

The interest in elections in Indian neighboring states should (and has) gone beyond seeking friendly trade partners. It should ideally be about seeking to put compliant governments in place (with our help if necessary) who are agreeable about being good markets for our products and good sources of raw materials (seven sisters).

We should forego the chest thumping routines (and hatred from some Indian quarters in some cases) and seriously, carefully, practically review what BENEFITS each NE state (and Bangladesh) by a) exchange of natural resources as well as b) establishing markets for Bangladeshi goods in these NE states. We have agreed to and tried Indian transshipment from other parts of India to the NE states via Bangladesh and it was a big failure. The transport expense was too much and the logistics was barely supportable. It won't work.

So we have to turn back to the natural scheme of things and get real. These land locked areas (especially Tripura and the entire NE India) can only use Bangladesh as a natural economical trade conduit to develop and Bangladesh has to act as a responsible big sister and take up the mantle of leading and growing this trade relationship.

New Delhi is too far away, only interested in tax revenue, some oil/natural resources (some of it to be sold to Bangladesh) and not in much else. For land-locked NE states to develop into the next stage, they cannot turn a blind eye to Bangladesh as a shipping conduit, nor to Bangladeshi products whether consumer products or industrial products.

A BJP led central govt. does not care about development in NE states, they simply want to grab votes by drumming up communalism and the 'bugaboo' (juju-burir bhoi) of a Muslim takeover - which, as outlandish as it sounds, is believable to the simple-minded. All the center wants to do is create buffer states unfriendly to India's neighbors.

Bangladesh can be a voracious consumer for NE states' natural resources (Forest resources, hydroelectric power, minerals, clinker, building products), add value using Bangladeshi cheap labor, and then export the end product. Bangladesh can even help set up profit-sharing agribusinesses and farms in the NE. Win-win.

The primary thing is that we have to keep an open mind about development and trade. No one here is trying to pull a fast one. Trade has to be fair and equitable to all parties. We need to grow that trust and benefit each of our populations, EU style.

We need to influence the politics in these states so that people see beyond the pettiness of the NRC communalism exercises and the promises of trade and development.

 

[Homo Sapiens]

Author of this article cant bring himself to say that the political parties for which Bangladeshi actors were campaigning wanted to get the votes of illegal migrants who have been settled in West bengal and Assam, and have been provided voter id and aadhar cards by the politicians.

Typical Shanghi conspiracy theory. That actor used to do film in West Bengal. He used to be popular there and gone this time to do a film. He is going forth and back between West Bengal and Bangladesh for over 20 years. He is a very India loving type of person.

Trinamul has a habit to utilize film stars in politics. Look at their candidate this time. Five film actor/actress got nominated by Trinamul. That Bangladeshi actor is used to political campaign. He campaigned in last general election in Bangladesh for Sheikh Hasina. Most probably he responded to the request of his colleague to do the campaign for Trinamul without grasping about the controversy it will generate. I say good lesson taught to him. He is one of those India loving Bangladeshi cultural personalities who believe in 'Epar Bangla-Opar Bangla same' bullshit. It should serve him a good lesson.

 

[namefield_empty]

Rejection rate in Bengali Muslim dominated districts are lower than other districts. Our of 4 million left out in NRC, 2.7 million are Hindus and 1.3 million are Muslim.

40 lakhs included in the draft pending the claims and objection process is a huge number in a state of 3 crore population.

District wise detection rates are perfectly in sync with the ground realities, it was never the border districts of Dhuburi, Goalpara or the Barak Valley that concerned us, those areas already had a sizeable Bengali population since much before. Infiltration in their contiguous districts and recently in upper assam was something that always bothered us. The onus is upon those not included to prove that they are residents not on the state, failing which they will be declared foreigners. Their disenfranchisement is something we all seek as the first step, though i am not in favour of incarceration in refugee camps as it entails a massive cost.

 

[Imran Khan]

nothing to worry just be ready to kiss the feet anyone whom win like you are doing since last 50 years . only Governor-General will change gov will remain same .

 

[namefield_empty]

Now West Bengal. Unlike Assam, everyone in West Bengal is Bengali. Bengali Hindus there have no problem to grant citizenship to Bangladeshi origin Hindus which was not the case with Assamese nationalist Hindus. And Muslims in West Bengal will not have any problem proving their Indian roots. Because a lot of Muslim majority regions left out in West Bengal despite Partition supposed them to be included in then Eastern Pakistan. It is well known fact and nobody can deny their rightful citizenship. They will be even more successful establishing their claim of citizenship than Assamese Bengali Muslims. So NRC in West Bengal if ever implemented, would be even a bigger joke. Most importantly there is no widespread agitation in West Bengal for NRC like Assam. So, it's chance of happening is quite remote. Drumming about it is nothing but BJP's attempt to grab vote by instigating Hindu communalism. Whether they can gain enough Hindu support in West Bengal for this cause is yet to be seen. Because Bengali Hindus in West Bengal are generally less communal minded than other parts of India.

Proving their Indian roots will still be a challenge for those in WB. NRC demands a specific set of documents that only an Indian citizen can furnish. Muslim majority districts might have been included in WB but they are Indian territory and citizen belonging to them must not be counted as doubtful. Only those citizens that can't present legacy data of their fathers and grandfathers or have their roots in BD will be liable for prosecution.

But i agree that NRC in Bengal is a bit far fetched at the moment, and popular support amongst Bengali hindu supporters of BJP are the ones clamouring for it. Time will tell if it ever comes to fruition.

 

[Rollno21]

Its against the Indian law for non Indians to campaign in Indian elections .just like non Indians cannot contest in Indian elections and just like non Indians cannot vote in India .

 

[Homo Sapiens]

it was never the border districts of Dhuburi, Goalpara or the Barak Valley that concerned us, those areas already had a sizeable Bengali population since much before. Infiltration in their contiguous districts and recently in upper assam was something that always bothered us

Isn't it odd that, most heavily Bengali Muslim dominated districts like Dhuburi, Karimganj has lower rejection rate than other districts as well as the state average? Your statement here defy the common sense of illegal even legal migration realities around the world. Legal/illegal migrants universally seek to migrate to a place where they can get the familiar and friendly environment, closer to home. Look at Mexican migrants(legal+illegal) dominated areas in US, which are just across the US-Mexico border. Seems like this shadowy ''Illegal Bangladeshi migrants'' in Assam are a peculiar bunch of ghosts.

There is only one explanation to this paradox. Those so called ''illegal Muslims'' in upper Assam are not ''Illegal Bangladeshi'' as claimed, but a natural spill over from the Muslim dominated districts within Assam.

 

[Black_cats]

Isn't it odd that, most heavily Bengali Muslim dominated districts like Dhuburi, Karimganj has lower rejection rate than other districts as well as the state average? It defy the common sense of of illegal even legal migration realities around the world. Legal/Illegal migrants universally seek to migrate to a place where they can get the familiar and friendly environment, closer to home. Look at Mexican migrants(legal+illegal) dominated areas in US, which are just across the US-Mexico border. Seems like this shadowy ''Illegal Bangladeshi migrants'' in Assam are a peculiar bunch of ghosts.

There is only one explanation to this paradox. Those so called ''illegal Muslims'' in upper Assam are not ''Illegal Bangladeshi'' as claimed, but a natural spill over from the Muslim dominated districts within Assam.

Out of 4 million those who were left out 2.8 million is hindu. Among the 4 million around 2 million is from Bihar or Uttar Pradesh. The claim that muslim migrated to upper assam is nothing but nonsense. This poor floating people simple does not have document.

This is the chart showing population growth in each district of Assam from 1971-1991. There are not any abnormal growth in any districts. If so how they can exclude 13% of total population. Did not Assam had any population growth since 1971?

https://scroll.in/article/864879/il...for-the-increase-in-assam-s-muslim-population

 

[Homo Sapiens]

https://scroll.in/article/864879/il...for-the-increase-in-assam-s-muslim-population

Look at this chart. Muslim gone from 24.68% in 1951 to 34.22% in 2011 in Assam. A growth of 38.6 percentage point over 60 years. In the meantime, in all India, Muslims gone from 10% to 14.2%. Check Indian census. In all India, Muslim growth was 42 percentage point over the same period. So Assamese Muslim growth is actually lower than Indian average. So how they can claim that Assam has been over run by massive number of Bangladeshi Muslim migrants?

The truth is Muslim growth is high in all part of India, not only in Assam. But as Assam had higher percentage of Muslims to begin with and they form majority in some districts, who happen to be a different ethnicity than dominant Assamese, it got politicized in ugly ways and made Bangladesh a scapegoat due to their ignorance and xenophobia.

 

[namefield_empty]

Isn't it odd that, most heavily Bengali Muslim dominated districts like Dhuburi, Karimganj has lower rejection rate than other districts as well as the state average? Your statement here defy the common sense of illegal even legal migration realities around the world. Legal/illegal migrants universally seek to migrate to a place where they can get the familiar and friendly environment, closer to home.

There are many reasons i could elaborate here but that would make me extremely unpopular. Barak valley and lower Assam districts already had a very high population density which decreases the scope(increases competition) for available jobs and other resources. The immigrants that we speak of hence ventured into greener pastures in the middle Assam districts and onwards. Hojai district, for example, a part of Nagaon earlier, was completely free from illegal immigrants and also muslims of Bengali origin(spill over as you say), last 3 decades has brought about a sea of change. Such changes have been observed in Darrang, other parts of Nagaon, Sonitpur etc.

Muslim gone from 24.68% in 1951 to 34.22% in 2011 in Assam. A growth of 38.6 percentage point over 60 years.

This will help you understand more. Muslim population growth in Assam was more than WB, Kerala and even JnK.