Shahed-136 - Tracking usage & expanding understanding.

[TheImmortal]

Zelensky has stated in the G7 summit that Russia has purchased 2400 Shahed Suicide UAVs. With over 50+ flights made to Russia during this time, this number is plausible. I would not be surprised if the next batch order is already in the process of being manufactured.

It is in Iran's interest for NATO nations to deplete/expend their stockpiles of AD interceptors in Ukraine.

Shahed engines are producing in iran.

The question is in any part within that engine foreign procured if it is then that’s a problem.

Reports are Russia ordered 2400 S-136. The question is what is Iran’s production capacity without running into bottleneck issues.

 

[FuturePAF]

The question is in any part within that engine foreign procured if it is then that’s a problem.

Reports are Russia ordered 2400 S-136. The question is what is Iran’s production capacity without running into bottleneck issues.

Any indications if the Iranians are pulling from their own inventories or if all these are custom made for the Russian order?

 

[Oldman1]

Zelensky has stated in the G7 summit that Russia has purchased 2400 Shahed Suicide UAVs. With over 50+ flights made to Russia during this time, this number is plausible. I would not be surprised if the next batch order is already in the process of being manufactured.

It is in Iran's interest for NATO nations to deplete/expend their stockpiles of AD interceptors in Ukraine.

What are the chances of Ukrainians making their own version and use it against Russians in near future when something like the Shahed falls into their hands? Easy to make?

 

[Stryker1982]

Likely more drone deliveries occurred today.

 

[Stryker1982]

Any indications if the Iranians are pulling from their own inventories or if all these are custom made for the Russian order?

Until we get more information from the inside of the units, it will not be possible to determine. I'm sure some are going to malfunction/fail, if for example, we see Russian parts inside, its safe to assume that Russia is involved in the production process, either making it entirely themselves or providing some components for joint assembly.

Perhaps Iran provided some initial stocks to keep them busy while new lots are produced. I see today a flight mades its way to Moscow from Iran's Saha airlines, so the possibility that Iran is either sending its own stock or building new stock to send it over is very high. Russia not yet self-sufficient to produce it fully on their own.

 

[shadihassan28]

Until we get more information from the inside of the units, it will not be possible to determine. I'm sure some are going to malfunction/fail, if for example, we see Russian parts inside, its safe to assume that Russia is involved in the production process, either making it entirely themselves or providing some components for joint assembly.

Perhaps Iran provided some initial stocks to keep them busy while new lots are produced. I see today a flight mades its way to Moscow from Iran's Saha airlines, so the possibility that Iran is either sending its own stock or building new stock to send it over is very high. Russia not yet self-sufficient to produce it fully on their own.

A number of Shahed-136 drones

Zelensky Says Russia Ordered 2,400 Iranian Drones​

9 hours ago
Conflict - MilitaryUkraine CrisisIran

Russia has ordered 2,400 Iranian-made Shahed drones from the Islamic Republic, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky said Tuesday.
Speaking via video link at the G7 summit, Zelensky appealed to the leaders of the G7 countries with a request to provide air defense and missile defense systems of medium and long range, and added that such systems will create a layered defense system.
"An air shield for Ukraine. This is part of the security guarantees that are an element of our formula for peace. When Ukraine receives a sufficient number of modern and effective air defense systems, the key element of Russian terror – missile strikes – will stop working," he said.
He thanked those countries that have already provided air defense system, “which makes it possible to neutralize some of the Russian missiles and drones. But Russia has ordered 2,400 Shaheds in Iran alone, according to our intelligence."
Addressing the leaders of Western powers each by name Zelensky said, “We are very much looking forward to the delivery of SAMP-T systems. And if possible, they are needed in the coming months.”
Zelensky said Monday, October 10, Russia had used Iran-made drones to attack dozens of civilian targets in Ukraine.
The Ukrainian military claimed on October 8 that Russia has sent Iranian military drones to Belarusfor possible attacks in western or central parts of Ukraine.
Do you think it’s possible for Iran to manufacture,in a short amount of time or have them in stock already, or disinformation from the Ukrainians to get military aid quicker @Stryker1982

 

[Stryker1982]

What are the chances of Ukrainians making their own version and use it against Russians in near future when something like the Shahed falls into their hands? Easy to make?

Conceptually this UAS is not difficult to make. If they were smart they should make something like it. Even a simplified version would work

Fiberglass body similar to a car body
Fueltank
Diesel
2-stroke commercial engine that many US companies can offer (Chinease if you want super cheap). Wooden propeller
Navigation (military grade GPS receivers) (provided by NATO nation).
Fuse & TNT



If you want lower RCS, Anti-EW, Autonomous targeting software, Infared Cameras, ability to be controlled as part of a network by another recon/relay UAV and such of course alot more work is needed, but if you just want a flying bomb that can fly 500km into enemy territory, they should be able to.

The cream/parameters is keeping costs low and production capacity very high, otherwise 100 or 200 of this UAS or scaled down variant is pretty useless in the grand scheme of things in a war of this size. If those parameters are violated, the UAS loses it's purpose

Inventories need to be well into the thousands, and production needs to be dozen+ per day at minimum to be very effective. Just consider this UAS to be like a flying JDAM, you should be using 1000s of them over the course of a war and more.

 

[Stryker1982]

Do you think it’s possible for Iran to manufacture,in a short amount of time or have them in stock already, or disinformation from the Ukrainians to get military aid quicker @Stryker1982

A single factory should be able to produce dozens of these engines per day as long the money is coming in. If Russia is paying for these UAVs, then the costs of operation are of little concern and production will continue.

My guess is that Iran makes initial deliveries with it's own stockpile to give Russians something to use immediately, and then will produce new lots for them.

Shahed-136 strolling the countryside this morning Krivoy Rog in Ukraine

https://imgur.com/a/EhDJhcb

https://imgur.com/a/dmWOzKY

One is black & one is white. Interesting

 

[Stryker1982]

Volnogorsk, Dnepropetrovsk close to where the other UAS were spotted flying

 

[Hack-Hook]

What are the chances of Ukrainians making their own version and use it against Russians in near future when something like the Shahed falls into their hands? Easy to make?

don't knew about Ukraine capacity for producing those boards , they are not that complex probably only 4-5 layer , but I don't see why any other Europeans country can produce it for them if Russia managed to destroy the facilities that are capable of producing such boards. the rest of the drones not that complex, and mostly of the shelf material , Ukrainian are fools if they don't copy them specially after west refused to gave them longer range weapons , what I doubt is Ukraine be able to build them as cheap as us my guess is by how the military industry work in west if they want to copy it it will be at least 100,000$ still in my mind worth the investment

 

[Stryker1982]

don't knew about Ukraine capacity for producing those boards , they are not that complex probably only 4-5 layer , but I don't see why any other Europeans country can produce it for them if Russia managed to destroy the facilities that are capable of producing such boards. the rest of the drones not that complex, and mostly of the shelf material , Ukrainian are fools if they don't copy them specially after west refused to gave them longer range weapons , what I doubt is Ukraine be able to build them as cheap as us my guess is by how the military industry work in west if they want to copy it it will be at least 100,000$ still in my mind worth the investment

Once you hit 100,000 a unit, it largely losses its value. The drone is built around the doctrine.

 

[TruthHurtz]

Once you hit 100,000 a unit, it largely losses its value. The drone is built around the doctrine.

This is what many in the west don't understand about suicide drones, they are utterly expendable. The switchblade, which is small battlefield drone, costs 70k a pop, compared to Shahed-136 which is 20-40k a unit and is both a strategic and battlefield weapon which has inflicted large amounts of damage to Ukrainian military and civilian infrastructure.

AeroVironment Will Upgrade the Switchblade | The Motley Fool

Orbital ATK will help, providing an advanced warhead for AeroVironment's killer drone.

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[925boy]

Once you hit 100,000 a unit, it largely losses its value. The drone is built around the doctrine.

100,000 units? LMaoooooooo....that would send Ukraine back to the Soviet era

 

[TruthHurtz]

100,000 units? LMaoooooooo....that would send Ukraine back to the Soviet era

He means 100k per unit.

 

[Stryker1982]

Busy day today with Shahed-136.

With launches occurring during the day time and night time.

Air alarms were frequently on in Central Ukraine, with locals hearing sounds of Geran-2's. Particularity in Vinnytsia where explosions are heard. Alarms were frequent during the day.

Statement:
Air raids will now last longer, - an explanation from the speaker of the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Yuriy Gnat.

The reason is kamikaze drones: “The speed of the drone is not high, 120-150 km per hour. It flies for a long time and can correct the route. Therefore, the duration of the alarms is higher than before.”

In Vinnytsia region, a Mig-29 was pulled up to down Geran-2 UAS. As we saw in the past, resorting to airpower is necessary in dealing with this threat, but it is extremely cost-ineffective. Amazingly a Mig-29 after downing or attempting to down a Geran-2, succumbed to failure from 'technical malfunction' and crashed!

https://imgur.com/a/7IFOT7K

Proof;

Drones in swarms were frequently heard approaching Odessa and Nikolaev Oblasts into the night. Destination not clear.


Explosions were caught on video and recorded as far as Kiev Oblast tonight.

https://imgur.com/a/PBwl2SL

https://imgur.com/a/LN38hnA

https://imgur.com/a/1vNtKDK