Problem with SS is neither his assessment is realistic or has solutions. This habit of ordering change and relying on short term fixes has led us to where we are. I stopped listening to him after his speech in parliament post Balakot, it was a matter of national importance and he was still point scoring, repeating things the gov was already doing and proposing going beyond which was war, when IK asked clarity he denied. Being recorded on camera and then denying how low can you go. I get it opposition hates PTI/IK and get irritated whenever they bring up past performance, have the right to criticize but don't be a misogynist to Pakistan. Not aiding in any development because you don't want Pakistan to prosper under the current gov will do no good.Shahbaz Sharif is right in a point of view devaluing PKR from 130 to 155-168 had no impact on Export.
In my point of view we had no advantage for export in Pakistan. Only thing market base currency has bought is inflation and things for inflated.
FDI dropped massively as well, indirect tax increased as well and Asad Umar compromised CPEC contract sharing with IMF in 2019.
In my point of view, Asad Umar and Hafeez Shiek badly negotiated IMF program in the history Pakistan it has delayed for more than year now. Now again delayed to September just because it was very badly negotiated and Government has no experience how to deal with International lenders.
PKR was not devalued for solely boosting export, that was a expected by product. The primary reason for this move is Pak gov was borrowing dollars and pumping into market to keep it at a level, this can only be done for short term and not a sustainable method unless you have huge reserves. This was started during Gen Musharaf era and was ok then because US was pumping dollars but instead of stopping subsequent governments made it worse by over relying on it. This is one of the greatest failures of Dar economics as that was the point where it should have stopped. IMF aside this is something recommended by all independent economists and well known that borrowing for sake of overvaluing PKR was not sustainable.
Making the currency valuation market based instead of gov regulated has affected inflation and is not a popular move if you want to win elections but this is the right decision in the long run and reduces financial burden on the gov to reduce borrowing and increase reserves. Sort of like surgery, its painful right after the operation but once recovery starts it gets alot better. So same scenario, it was inevitable so so had to happen sooner or later and resulted in inflation increased but gov finances are improving. Eventually will trickle down to masses as gov has more to spend in health and other avenues.
There is no reality in saying CPEC is compromised there is no project they are pulling out or cancelling. What is being done gov is being careful in adding new projects to it. Problem which is being addressed is previous gov was keep on adding new projects to CPEC scope, issue had become so much that eventually if we kept doing this the repayment would be an issue as you would not have a balance between earning and payback. That is Pakistan would have to payback more than what it can afford compared to earnings from CPEC benefits. Diversification reduces the risk on CPEC collaterals. Alternate investment avenues being explored and most prominent is support from overseas Pakistani's. Which is why Ravi waterfront project investment is diversified.
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