Second Take on Pakistan-Saudi Loans

[masterchief_mirza]

why can't Pakistan call for a meeting on its own or rather approach the impartial persons with high positions in OIC to convene a meeting so that no one country is blamed

I like your analysis and it's very well reasoned. Clearly we don't know the full story so you may well be on the mark. But I have two criticisms.

1. When we did try to attend a meeting without KSA being present but with others present who were willing to discuss the Kashmir issue, KSA threw its toys out of its pram and suddenly remembered it was in charge of Muslims and could tell us not to go to that meeting.

2. Assuming KSA is in some economic strife, they should simply ask for help and make it clear. In that situation, Khan and his advisers wouldn't embarrass the Saudis with open criticisms like this.

For the above reasons, I feel it is more likely that KSA is not in any significant crisis whatsoever and is simply exerting negative influence on Pakistan and Pakistani interests.

 

[RIP Pak LAW]

Yes MBS ( Mr Bull $HIT) has some serious inferiority complex issues. One can only imagine the kind of demands spoiled brat put infront of us. There are several other factor such as 20 billion dollars worth investment which Saudis promised but never materialized it even after 2 years. This keeping in mind that Saudis plan 100 billion investment which is already underway. There is also a demand by the brat to scale back our ties with China, Turkey and Iran. I bet the paranoia is running high after 400 billion investment deal with Iran which will help China cut reliance on Saudi oil which has American strings attached to it.

What I see is that they don't like our relationship with Turkey. They are slowly making a case against them and arming Egypt as much as they can for a conflict against Turkey. Good that Pakistan stepped back from Yemen since if we had supported them blindly that time, they would had asked same against Turkey moving forward which we will never.

 

[Pandora]

A lot of people mention our Nuclear Umbrella. The question is, Saudi Arabia needs the nuclear umbrella to protect them from whom?

They have the USA with numerous air bases, and state-of-the-art US military equipment deployed. They essentially don't need our 'nuclear umbrella.' Will we nuke Iran for them?



Once again, as in the thread, understand why. They're undergoing a severe economic crisis right now.

Pakistan reluctance on providing Nuclear coverage to Saudis in event of conflict is probably the biggest reason behind souring ties. It is not a hidden fact that Saudis poured billions into our nuclear program so they could have an off the shelf option for them. They specifically bought several MRBM and IRBM from china for this very purpose. Saudis feel entitled to our nukes bcz we took their money and never gave them any return on it. You can see that Saudis are already venturing on their own Nuclear program. They already setup a Uranium yellow cake processing facility in KSA. Couple that with Several nuclear power plants in the pipe line they have raw materials for both Uranium and Plutonium production.

Iran already has a mature nuclear program and Saudis are feeling betrayed.

 

[M. Sarmad]

Yes, foreign policy is shaped by reason. It is out of reason to break our relations with them over an OIC meeting on Kashmir.

No one is breaking (or intends to break) 'relations' over an OIC meeting on Kashmir. This shifting paradigm in the nature of power play has to be understood within the context of a much larger chain of events and against the backdrop of the ongoing "pivot campaign" to preserve 'hegemony' in the face of an unprecedented shift in global power from West to East

 

[masterchief_mirza]

No one is breaking (or intends to break) 'relations' over an OIC meeting on Kashmir. This shifting paradigm in the nature of power play has to be understood within the context of a much larger chain of events and against the backdrop of the ongoing "pivot campaign" to preserve 'hegemony' in the face of an unprecedented shift in global power from West to East

Exactly. Gwadar/CPEC/CIEC vs Dubai has a lot to do with it.

 

[Lincoln]

I like your analysis and it's very well reasoned. Clearly we don't know the full story so you may well be on the mark. But I have two criticisms.

1. When we did try to attend a meeting without KSA being present but with others present who were willing to discuss the Kashmir issue, KSA threw its toys out of its pram and suddenly remembered it was in charge of Muslims and could tell us not to go to that meeting.

2. Assuming KSA is in some economic strife, they should simply ask for help and make it clear. In that situation, Khan and his advisers wouldn't embarrass the Saudis with open criticisms like this.

For the above reasons, I feel it is more likely that KSA is not in any significant crisis whatsoever and is simply exerting negative influence on Pakistan and Pakistani interests.

1. They want the influence and were confident of their influence, there is no doubt about that, and that is why they're feeling the heat now. Given the tough circumstances as of now, the next time they won't throw in such a tantrum, that's my analysis.

2. Silence obviously means one thing, that the option is still being considered and is on the tables. It hasn't been abandoned yet, otherwise, a straight rejection would've been given. But they don't want to do that to Pakistan. Most of the finance-based news outlets stated that Saudi Arabia, with Aramco as its backbone, has high optimism for the third and fourth quarters of the year and hopes to bounce back from the severe crisis as countries liftback their lockdowns and import oil as per demand. One of their ministers said that they're hoping, and waiting, for positive indicators soon. So, they might just be waiting. I think it's the fault of SMQ that he made those statements, he is responsible for what he said.

3. Saudi Arabia is in a crisis, and you know it when their oil export profits plunge over 50%, they're being force to borrow and eat up reserves, and the IMF, World Bank, among other organizations are predicting a contraction of their economy by over -5% which is the sharpest since 4 or 5 decades.

4. Let us just assume, against all odds and evidence, that Saudi Arabia for some insane reason doesn't want to think about its economy during an economic crisis but rather is more concerned with annoying Pakistan, a country it considers a friend. Even then, these statements by SMQ, with such rebuke, are resentful because you have more to lose than to gain from these.

 

[Pandora]

What I see is that they don't like our relationship with Turkey. They are slowly making a case against Turkey and arming Egypt as much as they can. Good that Pakistan stepped back from Yemen since if we had supported them blindly that time, they would had asked same against Turkey moving forward.

Turkey is just one thing but that is not the entire reason. They think that Pakistan had huge role in burning down their ambitions of joint muslim force under their command which they tried via IMCTC task force. Then china and Iran signed a 400 billion agreement burning their ambitions of providing oil to china via gawadar and CPEC. Also their petty requests like dont air Ertgrul series, dont have relation with iran, dont have relations with malaysia and indonesia.

 

[Lincoln]

No one is breaking (or intends to break) 'relations' over an OIC meeting on Kashmir. This shifting paradigm in the nature of power play has to be understood within the context of a much larger chain of events and against the backdrop of the ongoing "pivot campaign" to preserve 'hegemony' in the face of an unprecedented shift in global power from West to East

The statements made by SMQ will do more than just break relations. Rebukes like these create hostilities. The Army Chief's meeting with Saudi Ambassador at this point in time is not in vain.

 

[Lincoln]

Pakistan reluctance on providing Nuclear coverage to Saudis in event of conflict is probably the biggest reason behind souring ties. It is not a hidden fact that Saudis poured billions into our nuclear program so they could have an off the shelf option for them. They specifically bought several MRBM and IRBM from china for this very purpose. Saudis feel entitled to our nukes bcz we took their money and never gave them any return on it. You can see that Saudis are already venturing on their own Nuclear program. They already setup a Uranium yellow cake processing facility in KSA. Couple that with Several nuclear power plants in the pipe line they have raw materials for both Uranium and Plutonium production.

Iran already has a mature nuclear program and Saudis are feeling betrayed.

It's not a hidden fact. It's a rumor actually. Saudi's don't need a nuclear umbrella from Pakistan when the USA is the guarantor of their sovereignty and has the practical ability with many military bases in the Middle East. Secondly, any sane mind will tell you that Pakistan won't nuke Iran even if Iran were to suddenly invade Saudi Arabia which it won't. Saudi Arabia has no threat of invasion from any country.

 

[T-123456]

The IMF estimates Saudi Arabia needs oil at $80 a barrel to balance its budget; Brent crude is currently trading in the $43 range.
The Saudi economy is in steep decline,probably the main reason for this situation.

 

[Longhorn]

A lot of people mention our Nuclear Umbrella. The question is, Saudi Arabia needs the nuclear umbrella to protect them from whom?

They have the USA with numerous air bases, and state-of-the-art US military equipment deployed. They essentially don't need our 'nuclear umbrella.' Will we nuke Iran for them?



Once again, as in the thread, understand why. They're undergoing a severe economic crisis right now.

How will our scaling down of relations with Turkey, Malaysia and Iran help their economic crisis?

 

[Lincoln]

The IMF estimates Saudi Arabia needs oil at $80 a barrel to balance its budget; Brent crude is currently trading in the $43 range.
The Saudi economy is in steep decline,probably the main reason for this situation.

Thank you. People keep on going back to the equation of Turkey-Saudi-Pakistan triangle, or Nuclear Umbrella which we have no basis to, and can't provide.

The economy is the most major factor in what are financial questions.

 

[Lincoln]

How will our scaling down of relations with Turkey, Malaysia and Iran help their economic crisis?

They will not, but was this request made by them during the pandemic and its consequences or before that? What was the context, was it just another everyday statement or was it in context of a big meeting which was, already, being seen by many here as a parallel to OIC. Pakistan had good relations with these countries before too but they never made mention of that then. So, why now?
And did the Saudi Foreign Minister say: "Pakistan needs to stop dragging its feet, they must scale down their relations with Turkey, Malaysia, or Iran, or we will go ahead without them."

 

[Gorgin Khan]

29 billion dollar deficit in whatever payments and financial responsibilities they have this year.

Secondly, can't the Saudi people also say the same; that we're not Pakistanis, so we will not look from their perspective. If you want to get something from someone, you have to view their interests in mind too, just like they viewed ours when they lent us the loans saving our economy, or when they gave us financial support after the detonation of 3 nuclear devices in 1998.

It's a two-way street. At one point, one country makes a sacrifice, and at another point, the other country makes a sacrifice.

Also, as in regard to the wars, that they are in right now. Those are blunders of theirs. They cannot immediately pull out without facing much greater damage. During times like these, it's easier and more cost-efficient to scale down your activities and move only a step back. One of the reasons USA doesn't want to move out of Middle Eastern countries where it is no longer relevant, such as Iraq, and as Trump has mentioned is because it would cost them a lot more dollars and they have big military bases there which costed them a lot of dollars.

My earlier post might seem Harsh but thats the truth. This is not King faisal , this is MBS. Its a two way street but not at the expense of our national interest. The Saudis are not in such bad shape that they have to ask for billion dollar back from us. They have billions of investment in US treasuries and other countries. US sustain trillion dollar deficit Yet pour billions in aid. And we were asking for loans not aid which they promised. I guess that explains the gravity of current situation ,,, its better we think as pakistanis.

 

[StormBreaker]

We are not Saudis so we should not look from their perspective. We should look at things from our own perspective as this is not the Gulf of 60s and 70s who lived in tents and herd camels , their investments are in other countries so are the interests , the quickly we realise the better. We must not allow the current lot to cream our religious sentiment which is related to the Holy sites but not to the riches of AL- E - SAUD and NAHYANS.

And for the author Kindly what a piece of crap. Saudi has 29 Billion Dollar deficit out of what trade balance ? The same country is showering billions and zillions to destabilize other regions. So much for the poor begging Arabs ? If their interest are with india and we have to buy oil on cash we can also buy it from anywhere else whats the matter ? We must better think of something which can make us out of economic messes not Saudis .

Certainly you should have preferred silence over kid blabber.

Why NOT look at it from KSA perspective ?
As much as I hate to use this saying,
“Beggars aren’t choosers”, as the term beggar is insulting to my nation, But let’s consider this a political definition, Then who are we to ask as well as dictate them ?