On December 22, 2032, NASA determined that the asteroid 2024 YR4 posed a 2.3% risk of colliding with Earth. If this 40- to 90-meter (130- to 300-foot) asteroid were to reach a populated location, it would explode with the force of eight megatons of TNT, which is 500 times more destructive than the atomic bomb unleashed on Hiroshima. This asteroid is predicted to have an impact on several continents, including sections of Asia, Africa, and South America.
Since its discovery on 27 December 2024 by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) telescope in Chile scientists have been closely monitoring the asteroid's trajectory. As astronomers improve their forecasts, new observations have revealed an increase in the possibility of impact, despite initial evaluations suggesting a reduced probability. NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA) are working together on this endeavor, using the James Webb Space Telescope and other cutting-edge telescopes for additional analysis. The continued observations are important because they will assist determine whether the asteroid is a real hazard or if it is completely safe.
Despite the heightened attention surrounding asteroid 2024 YR4, experts emphasize that there is no immediate cause for alarm. Currently there is little chance of an impact—98% of the time it should pass without any problems. According to historical background asteroids of this size usually hit Earth every few thousand years usually causing localized devastation rather than a worldwide calamity. For example Tunguska catastrophe in 1908 which flattened millions of trees in Siberia but left no one dead was caused by an asteroid of comparable size. Scientists are hopeful that more observations could eventually bring the asteroid's impact probability down to zero before it becomes undetectable until its next close approach in 2028 as they continue to collect data and track its orbit.
Since its discovery on 27 December 2024 by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) telescope in Chile scientists have been closely monitoring the asteroid's trajectory. As astronomers improve their forecasts, new observations have revealed an increase in the possibility of impact, despite initial evaluations suggesting a reduced probability. NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA) are working together on this endeavor, using the James Webb Space Telescope and other cutting-edge telescopes for additional analysis. The continued observations are important because they will assist determine whether the asteroid is a real hazard or if it is completely safe.
Despite the heightened attention surrounding asteroid 2024 YR4, experts emphasize that there is no immediate cause for alarm. Currently there is little chance of an impact—98% of the time it should pass without any problems. According to historical background asteroids of this size usually hit Earth every few thousand years usually causing localized devastation rather than a worldwide calamity. For example Tunguska catastrophe in 1908 which flattened millions of trees in Siberia but left no one dead was caused by an asteroid of comparable size. Scientists are hopeful that more observations could eventually bring the asteroid's impact probability down to zero before it becomes undetectable until its next close approach in 2028 as they continue to collect data and track its orbit.
