Saudi in serious trouble and it knows it: US political scientist

[Takaavar]

Saudi in serious trouble and it knows it: US political scientist
Mon Jan 4, 2016 7:22PM


Saudi Arabia's growing international isolation and Iran's rising regional influence has led Riyadh to cut diplomatic ties with Tehran, according to a new analysis by the Eurasia Group, the world's largest political-risk consultancy.

"Saudi Arabia is in serious trouble, and they know it," Ian Bremmer, an American political scientist and president of Eurasia Group, told Business Insider.

Saudi Arabia is "much more challenged on the economic front, more isolated regionally and globally, and beset with succession issues (given the King's controversial son)," Bremmer said, referring to King Salman's newly empowered 30-year-old son, Mohammad bin Salman.

By severing relations with Iran, Saudi Arabia also shifts public attention away from its domestic problems, which include a sharp drop in oil prices and growing political instability stemming from rivalries within the Saudi ruling family, Bremmer said.

Saudi Arabia announced Sunday that it was cutting diplomatic ties with Iran following protests at the Saudi embassy in Tehran over the execution of prominent Shia cleric Sheikh Nimr Baqir al-Nimr.

On Monday, Saudi Arabia moved to cut off all commercial ties with Iran and bar its citizens from traveling there.

The Saudi regime said Saturday it had executed Sheikh Nimr along with 46 others, causing international outrage and a serious escalation of diplomatic tensions in the region.

"They hate the international attention on them given the growing ISIL concerns and want to make regional tensions an Iran story, which helps them domestically. All of which leads toward escalation," Bremmer noted.

"The key source of Saudi anxiety is Iran," Eurasia Group noted in its 2016 risk analysis. "Soon to be free of sanctions, Iran's economy will strengthen, and its government will have more money to spend in support of regional clients."

PressTV-Bremmer: Saudi in 'serious trouble'

 

[airmarshal]

Saudis are not that isolated but I hate this Saudi Iran rivalry. It is weakening Muslim world further and destroying the Middle East.

 

[nangyale]

You can not help the Saudis or the Iranians, they love hating each other.

Saudis are not that isolated but I hate this Saudi Iran rivalry. It is weakening Muslim world further and destroying the Middle East.

Although I do agree with your point.

 

[Abd-ar-Rahman III]

If Saudi Arabia is "isolated" which is a nice joke considering their influence on numerous fields, economic size, importance and long-standing relations with key countries, Muslim as non-Muslim, then I guess that Iran must be close to disappearing.

Let's ignore the fact that KSA is a G-20 major economies member state (Iran is nowhere close) and that they have cordial ties with almost every country expect the Iranian regime which is worse off on almost every front.

Also PressTV has to be one of the most absurd propaganda channels available in the ME. Nobody but Iranian regime supporters and radical Shias read that media let alone read it as the Gospel.

Saudis are not that isolated but I hate this Saudi Iran rivalry. It is weakening Muslim world further and destroying the Middle East.

Both regimes need to grow up and stop those destructive proxy wars that harm other countries while they are hardly hit themselves by their destructive actions on this front. What is more pathetic is that they are the only countries in the ME who claim to be Islamic.

I as most other Arabs obviously prefer KSA and will stand with them against Iran as they are our brethren and neighbors but their regime is not my favorite cup of coffee either. Reforms are needed. The Iranian regime is much worse for the Arab world though and on many fronts they are much worse too. For instance when it comes to executions in general and executions of political opponents and religious figures.

Iranian hypocrisy is also annoying and meddling in the affairs of sovereign countries. We Egyptians experienced that when we had our years of turmoil which we are slowly escaping from for the better.

It's time for Egypt to become a major player in the ME again as we have been for millenniums. Not only are we the most populous ME country but we are also the oldest nation state on the planet after all and one of the most influential historically and even today when we are in our worst state. Egyptian influence, once we recover, will be good news for the region.

I feel that Egypt and a Turkey without Erdogan could serve as a much saner alternative to the Saudi Arabian-Iranian proxy wars and tiring feud that does nothing but cause trouble for the region and the image of Islam and Muslims. Both parties are so stubborn that they refuse to admit their faults but they must be blind. I don't know what it takes for them to change. Regime change in both countries? Don't know what it will take. If this continues they will take everyone down with them in the region.

Nothing against ordinary Saudi Arabians or Iranians but are you guys not ashamed of your regimes behavior and your blind support of this behavior? Are you guys not neighbors? Then act like neighbors and if the hatred is so, so big then at least ignore each other for the betterment of everyone around you. This would only be good news for you guys too.

 

[Takaavar]

If Saudi Arabia is "isolated" which is a nice joke considering their influence on numerous fields, economic size, importance and long-standing relations with key countries, Muslim as non-Muslim, then I guess that Iran must be close to disappearing.

Let's ignore the fact that KSA is a G-20 major economies member state (Iran is nowhere close) and that they have cordial ties with almost every country expect the Iranian regime which is worse off on almost every front.

Also PressTV has to be one of the most absurd propaganda channels available in the ME. Nobody but Iranian regime supporters and radical Shias read that media let alone read it as the Gospel.

Did you actually read the article? He says Saudi is increasingly challenged both domestically and abroad, which is right.

 

[Abd-ar-Rahman III]

Did you actually read the article? He says Saudi is increasingly challenged both domestically and abroad, which is right.

I don't see that. What is more important is for the Iranian and Saudi Arabian regimes (so-called "Islamic" regimes) to grow up and stop spreading their destructive proxy wars everywhere and for their people to stop blindly follow their regimes. Are you guys never ashamed by your behavior which does not benefit either party let alone ordinary Muslims or the region as a whole? On any front be it political, economic or religious.

Would genuine Islamic states not be that naturally? Or are you guys only using religion to increase your influence. Nice perversion of Islam if that's the case which it seems at times.

People outside of the ME consider the ME as a extremely backward region full of hatred and religious fanaticism, ethnic hatred and what not and a large reason for this is your behavior in the past many decades.
Most Muslims in the world are more than tired of your actions and behavior. You cannot imagine it.
It's about time for your regimes and the regime supporters in both of your countries to grow up.

Also why is the Iranian regime meddling in internal Saudi Arabian matters? Saudi Arabia executed 47 terrorists convicted of terrorism and murder and other serious offenses. 45 of them happened to be Sunnis and 2 were Shia. Do KSA comment on your internal affairs when you execute numerous Sunnis accused of being "enemies of God", minorities, political opponents etc.? You do it at a much greater scale which only makes the hypocrisy more tragicomical and absurd.

Also what's with your habit of burning and destroying embassies of foreign nations? Did such behavior not cost you extremely dearly already? Do you think that it makes you appear "strong" when 200-300 screaming idiots invade embassies where there are less than 20-30 unarmed people in total? Or burning flags? How childish and pathetic can you get? Why don't you attack KSA already instead of all this empty talk and threats?

 

[Falcon29]

I don't get what you're banking on foreign analysis. If you want Saudi Arabia to be in 'trouble' do so yourself and take up your fight/settle the score already. Yemeni's, Syrians and Iraqi's should not be used as pawns for this fight. Man up and fight each other. Obviously the target here isn't the Saudi regime. The target is the Saudi culture, Iran sees Saudi Arabia as strategic place to influence Muslims around the world and in the local region. It wants to convert it from a Sunni bastion of influence into a Shia bastion of influence. This is why so much importance is attached to Saudi Arabia by Iran. This isn't simply a case of dispute with the regime. It's the same thing Iran wanted with Saddam, they wanted Iraq to be lead by Shia government for more influence/power in the region. Saddam saw that as a threat and went to war. Saudi Arabia also sees this as an threat and is taking measures we've seen lately.

If Iran get's a hold of Saudi Arabia, they will change Islam as we know it. It will ban all Sunni Islamic history/theology/schools of thought and change the narrative within Islam. Obviously this is seen as very provocative goals. If your goal is to have hegemonic intentions in the region don't complain if they try countering it.

What worries me is Iranians don't know what they will get them selves into. Iranians are secular people who live secular lifestyle. However they think this strategy to use religion as tool to gain influence is working and won't have major consequences. This is why they are going ahead with the goal to antagonize Saudi Arabia and possibly destabilize it. Because they think it work like Iraq worked in the long term.

And don't bring up Israel here. Your ambitions in the Arab world have no relation to Israel. Really today we can only consider Palestinian parties to be anti-Israel. We saw Hezbollah today, in response to Israeli assassination they blew up some grass near an Israeli jeep. But showed more outrage over the Saudi execution of Saudi Shia cleric. It's clear that Israel is the least of their concerns.

 

[Abd-ar-Rahman III]

I don't get what you're banking on foreign analysis. If you want Saudi Arabia to be in 'trouble' do so yourself and take up your fight/settle the score already. Yemeni's, Syrians and Iraqi's should not be used as pawns for this fight. Man up and fight each other. Obviously the target here isn't the Saudi regime. The target is the Saudi culture, Iran sees Saudi Arabia as strategic place to influence Muslims around the world and in the local region. It wants to convert it from a Sunni bastion of influence into a Shia bastion of influence. This is why so much importance is attached to Saudi Arabia by Iran. This isn't simply a case of dispute with the regime. It's the same thing Iran wanted with Saddam, they wanted Iraq to be lead by Shia government for more influence/power in the region. Saddam saw that as a threat and went to war. Saudi Arabia also sees this as an threat and is taking measures we've seen lately.

What worries me is Iranians don't know what they will get them selves into. Iranians are secular people who live secular lifestyle. However they think this strategy to use religion as tool to gain influence is working and won't have major consequences. This is why they are going ahead with the goal to antagonize Saudi Arabia and possibly destabilize it. Because they think it work like Iraq worked in the long term.

I agree. They also don't understand what kind of increasing/animosity hatred that they face from ordinary Arabs from Morocco all the way to the traditionally neutral Oman even. Why? Because of how the Iranian regime is acting in the Arab regime and what their local foot soldiers are doing of troublemaking. Their treatment of Arabs in Iran is not helping either and more and more focus is put on this issue. Before only Iraq was concerned about this when Saddam ruled.

Not only among Arabs but increasingly more and more Sunni Muslims when they see Iran's policy in Syria, Iraq etc. which can only be deemed as anti-Sunni Muslim.

I don't care about sect and always call myself a Muslim if people ask but most people in the ME will, when shit hits the fan, stick together with their sect and ethnicity.
The thing is, Shia's are heavily outnumbered in the Muslim world compared to Sunnis. So are Iranians compared to Arabs. The Sunni-Shia ratio is 10:1 and the Arab-Iranain ratio is 6:1. 10:1 if we only include Persians.

As I said, despite being highly critical of the Saudi Arabian regime at times and not agreeing with everything they do, I as most other Arabs will stand with KSA in case of a direct conflict.
I don't see how Iran can possibly win that fight unless they suddenly ally with the US and the West and somehow succeed in turning KSA into another Iran in terms of isolation. I doubt that they will succeed with that though.
It really makes no sense.

 

[Falcon29]

I agree. They also don't understand what kind of increasing/animosity hatred that they face from ordinary Arabs from Morocco all the way to the traditionally neutral Oman even. Why? Because of how the Iranian regime is acting in the Arab regime and what their local foot soldiers are doing of troublemaking. Not only among Arabs but increasing more and more Sunni Muslims when they see Iran's policy in Syria, Iraq etc.

I don't care about sect and always call myself a Muslim if people ask but most people in the ME will, when shit hits the fan, stick together with their sect and ethnicity Shia's are heavily outnumbered in the Muslim world compared to Sunnis. So are Iranians compared to Arabs. The Sunni-Shia ratio is 10:1 and the Arab-Iranain ratio is 1:6. 1:10 if we only include Persians.

As I said, despite being critical with the Saudi Arabian regime and not agreeing with everything they do, I as most other Arabs will stand with KSA in case of an conflict.

I don't see how Iran can possible win that fight unless they suddenly ally with the US and West and somehow succeed in turning KSA into another Iran in terms of isolation. I doubt that they will succeed with that though.

It really makes no sense.

I'm worried for the region. If Bahrain becomes a spotlight, or eastern Saudi Arabia. Or even Houthi's in Yemen begin push into Saudi Arabia. Imagine what will happen, militias will be born in grand numbers. It will definitely take an even more religious turn. And if it does, nobody will be able to control it. Sunni and Shia religious militants will be duking it out all over the region. And whoever prevails over the other could find them selves at war with the West or which ever countries intervene to prevent all out breakdown/collapse of region. So it will put all of us in more danger.

 

[Abd-ar-Rahman III]

I'm worried for the region. If Bahrain becomes a spotlight, or eastern Saudi Arabia. Or even Houthi's in Yemen begin push into Saudi Arabia. Imagine what will happen, militias will be born in grand numbers. It will definitely take an even more religious turn. And if it does, nobody will be able to control it. Sunni and Shia religious militants will be duking it out all over the region. And whoever prevails over the other could find them selves at war with the West or which ever countries intervene to prevent all out breakdown/collapse of region. So it will put all of us in more danger.

Yes, I can't imagine what would happen should KSA be engulfed in major conflicts especially the Hijaz region which is home to Makkah and Madinah. It would be the final confirmation of the eventual downfall of the ME as we know it today. If such conflicts emerged they would automatically emerge in Iran too as the scale of such conflicts would dictate that. It would be a domino effect.

The West's role, in particular USA's, is also confusing me greatly. Obama is mostly trying to avoid spending too much energy in the ME (who can blame him?) but the Republicans seem much more eager to be active again. Nearby Europe is certainly not interested in more immigrants. In Germany alone almost 1 million Syrians have been welcomed. Imagine that. They don't want more refugees here. And if more conflicts erupt in the ME there will be more refugees and when Europe closes their borders they will be stuck in the region and increase the problems of the region since no country in the region have been able to integrate their migrants.

 

[Takaavar]

I don't see that. What is more important is for the Iranian and Saudi Arabian regimes (so-called "Islamic" regimes) to grow up and stop spreading their destructive proxy wars everywhere and for their people to stop blindly follow their regimes. Are you guys never ashamed by your behavior which does not benefit either party let alone ordinary Muslims or the region as a whole? On any front be it political, economic or religious.

Would genuine Islamic states not be that naturally? Or are you guys only using religion to increase your influence. Nice perversion of Islam if that's the case which it seems at times.

People outside of the ME consider the ME as a extremely backward region full of hatred and religious fanaticism, ethnic hatred and what not and a large reason for this is your behavior in the past many decades.
Most Muslims in the world are more than tired of your actions and behavior. You cannot imagine it.
It's about time for your regimes and the regime supporters in both of your countries to grow up.

Also why is the Iranian regime meddling in internal Saudi Arabian matters? Saudi Arabia executed 47 terrorists convicted of terrorism and murder and other serious offenses. 45 of them happened to be Sunnis and 2 were Shia. Do KSA comment on your internal affairs when you execute numerous Sunnis accused of being "enemies of God", minorities, political opponents etc.? You do it at a much greater scale which only makes the hypocrisy more tragicomical and absurd.

Also what's with your habit of burning and destroying embassies of foreign nations? Did such behavior not cost you extremely dearly already? Do you think that it makes you appear "strong" when 200-300 screaming idiots invaded the embassies where there are less than 20-30 unarmed people in total?

It's not about the particular cases of Iran & Saudi, our region is generally less mature and we can't help ourselves. Many countries like the European countries had the same situation in their history yet they put aside their differences and now they are almost united in every aspect and are leaving peacefully. Europeans realized this only after a world war. You mentioned Egypt & Israel, they realized it after years of war. Maybe we need a total war with Saudi

What do you mean by "you"? If you mean Iran, then you should recall that the root of the backwardness & hatred in our region lies in ideologies founded in Saudi (both covt and its people, unfortunately). Iran is just more highlighted by the media, and Saudi is more ignored.

Iran executes Sunnis as "enemies of God"? WTF? And no, Iran does not behead political opposition figures. Are you ignoring the fact that Saudi Arabia sent troops to Bahrain to crush protests by Shias over there? How do you say Iran is doin that on a bigger scale? I don't see.

Shit happens, people are emotional and want to express themselves in some way, it was the police fault. The embassy attack what widely condemned in Iran, by political figures, media, etc.

 

[Falcon29]

Yes, I can't imagine what would happen should KSA be engulfed in major conflicts especially the Hijaz region which is home to Makkah and Madinah. It would be the final confirmation of the eventual downfall of the ME as we know it today. If such conflicts emerged they would automatically emerge in Iran too as the scale of such conflicts would dictate that. It would be a domino effect.

The West's role, in particular USA's, is also confusing me greatly. Obama is mostly trying to avoid spending too much energy in the ME (who can blame him?) but the Republicans seems much more eager to be active again. Nearby Europe is certainly not interested in more immigrants. In Germany alone almost 1 million Syrians have been welcomed. Imagine that.

Obama is in the last phase of his career. He values his legacy a lot. And no way will he increase US involvement in the situation in the remaining time of his term. The next US president is going to regret his/her position. Whatever they do won't help. It's something the locals need to deal with. Either settle down and back track in your ambitions or just get to the point and have direct war. Probably by 2019 we will see some direct war. I don't want to know how it will look like.

 

[Takaavar]

I don't get what you're banking on foreign analysis. If you want Saudi Arabia to be in 'trouble' do so yourself and take up your fight/settle the score already. Yemeni's, Syrians and Iraqi's should not be used as pawns for this fight. Man up and fight each other. Obviously the target here isn't the Saudi regime. The target is the Saudi culture, Iran sees Saudi Arabia as strategic place to influence Muslims around the world and in the local region. It wants to convert it from a Sunni bastion of influence into a Shia bastion of influence. This is why so much importance is attached to Saudi Arabia by Iran. This isn't simply a case of dispute with the regime. It's the same thing Iran wanted with Saddam, they wanted Iraq to be lead by Shia government for more influence/power in the region. Saddam saw that as a threat and went to war. Saudi Arabia also sees this as an threat and is taking measures we've seen lately.

If Iran get's a hold of Saudi Arabia, they will change Islam as we know it. It will ban all Sunni Islamic history/theology/schools of thought and change the narrative within Islam. Obviously this is seen as very provocative goals. If your goal is to have hegemonic intentions in the region don't complain if they try countering it.

What worries me is Iranians don't know what they will get them selves into. Iranians are secular people who live secular lifestyle. However they think this strategy to use religion as tool to gain influence is working and won't have major consequences. This is why they are going ahead with the goal to antagonize Saudi Arabia and possibly destabilize it. Because they think it work like Iraq worked in the long term.

And don't bring up Israel here. Your ambitions in the Arab world have no relation to Israel. Really today we can only consider Palestinian parties to be anti-Israel. We saw Hezbollah today, in response to Israeli assassination they blew up some grass near an Israeli jeep. But showed more outrage over the Saudi execution of Saudi Shia cleric. It's clear that Israel is the least of their concerns.

Iran never wanted Iraq to be lead by " a Shia government" for more power and blah blah. You obviousely have no idea what are you talking about. Post-Revolution Iran was calling for uprising against injust governments, whether it is aparthaid regime in South Africa or any Muslim nation.

 

[Abd-ar-Rahman III]

It's not about the particular cases of Iran & Saudi, our region is generally less mature and we can't help ourselves. Many countries like the European countries had the same situation in their history yet they put aside their differences and now they are almost united in every aspect and are leaving peacefully. Europeans realized this only after a world war. You mentioned Egypt & Israel, they realized it after years of war. Maybe we need a total war with Saudi

What do you mean by "you"? If you mean Iran, then you should recall that the root of the backwardness & hatred in our region lies in ideologies founded in Saudi (both covt and its people, unfortunately). Iran is just more highlighted by the media, and Saudi is more ignored.

Iran executes Sunnis as "enemies of God"? WTF? And no, Iran does not behead political opposition figures. Are you ignoring the fact that Saudi Arabia sent troops to Bahrain to crush protests by Shias over there? How do you say Iran is doin that on a bigger scale? I don't see.

Shit happens, people are emotional and want to express themselves in some way, it was the police fault. The embassy attack what widely condemned in Iran, by political figures, media, etc.

Of course it is as those two countries are the main root of the current instabilities if we exclude the Palestinian and Israeli conflict. Who else is trying to use religion to gain influence, who else is supporting numerous terrorist proxies, who else is trying to topple regimes in foreign countries, who else is meddling in the affairs of sovereign nations etc.?

I don't know. Maybe you should try if that means more peace and stability in the region?

You are both guilty of the same things that you accuse each other of. You both have religious radicals and even more blind regime worshippers although you have equally as many sane people, thank God.
Yes, you do that. It's well-known and I have read neutral reports about this issue many times. You (Iran) execute many more people each year and many more political opponents, religious minorities and ethnic minorities. Each month I read about Iranian Arabs being executed for absurd reason while their families claim that they were not doing anything else but protecting their rights. Not only among Arabs but I read the same about Kurds and hear the same from Kurds.

Few of such reports might be false but when you hear it for the 300th time you realize that there is a real problem. It's not like both countries are known for their respect for minorities.

KSA and Bahrain are allies. Neighbors, fellow Arab and GCC states. The Bahraini King asked KSA and other GCC forces to intervene and they did that. If I recall the GCC are bound by a common defense pact that says that the states are obligated to protect each other. Also hardly any Shia protestors have died in Bahrain. I have not seen any Saudi Arabian soldier killing Bahraini Shias. Maybe you could enlighten us here and me as I have never heard about such a thing?
What about your destructive role in Syria? Or your meddling in Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen and Bahrain etc.?
And no, before you mention Yemen, I don't agree with the actions from any party there. The Houthi's should not have tried to hijack all of Yemen by force not should KSA and the coalition have done what they have done. They should have tried to find another solution although I understand KSA's concern for their national safety as Houthi's have attacked them before and are openly hostile to them. So for me their actions at least makes more sense than your support for Al-Assad in Syria which is a insane regime. The realities on the ground say it all, ISIS or not. The same ISIS only emerged due to the actions of the Al-Assad regime. Similarly how ISIS emerged in Iraq among the Sunni Arabs there. Every action has a reaction.

It does not seem to have been widely condemned. Your Supreme Leader was already threatening (empty threads as usual from both sides) KSA before the embassy was burned down.

All in all, the conclusion remains the same. Both countries should grow up and the citizens in each country should stop supporting their two regimes blindly and admit when they commit mistakes. Those regimes will eventually put both countries in great trouble. It's the faith of every regime. One day they all disappear. Before that happens you better pray that this will happen peacefully and that not too many people will want to take part in their downfall whether inside or outside KSA and Iran.

Anyway I don't have more to say about this topic. I have been following regional events for years and those are my conclusions as things stand currently.

 

[Takaavar]

I agree. They also don't understand what kind of increasing/animosity hatred that they face from ordinary Arabs from Morocco all the way to the traditionally neutral Oman even. Why? Because of how the Iranian regime is acting in the Arab regime and what their local foot soldiers are doing of troublemaking. Their treatment of Arabs in Iran is not helping either and more and more focus is put on this issue. Before only Iraq was concerned about this when Saddam ruled.

Not only among Arabs but increasingly more and more Sunni Muslims when they see Iran's policy in Syria, Iraq etc. which can only be deemed as anti-Sunni Muslim.

I don't care about sect and always call myself a Muslim if people ask but most people in the ME will, when shit hits the fan, stick together with their sect and ethnicity.
The thing is, Shia's are heavily outnumbered in the Muslim world compared to Sunnis. So are Iranians compared to Arabs. The Sunni-Shia ratio is 10:1 and the Arab-Iranain ratio is 6:1. 10:1 if we only include Persians.

As I said, despite being highly critical of the Saudi Arabian regime at times and not agreeing with everything they do, I as most other Arabs will stand with KSA in case of a direct conflict.
I don't see how Iran can possibly win that fight unless they suddenly ally with the US and the West and somehow succeed in turning KSA into another Iran in terms of isolation. I doubt that they will succeed with that though.
It really makes no sense.

You have no idea what are you talking about either. For your information, the Arabs that you are talking about faught alongside Iranians, against saddam. Saddam was thinking like you, though, that the Iranian Arabs are opressed and blah blah and going to embrace Iraqi army.

I wonder how Israel beated so many Arab nation then, the ratio was even much higher