Saudi Arabia bribes Lebanese politicians: Lahoud

[al-Hasani]

I think Hezbollah and the Shi'a community broadly needs to reconcile itself to a certain reality: the Assad regime will not and cannot survive. And even if it holds out for another decade, it will not have the capability to project influence into Lebanon as it has for the last four decades. The calculus has changed and Iran will not be confronting Israel and the West as it once did either - that route has proved economically unviable.

How that will manifest on the ground is a long story and probably beyond the discussion here.



The Christians are politically very fragmented, confused and split. Some are essentially siding with an alliance of minorities against the Sunnis, while others have historically reconciled themselves with the Sunni Arab depth (such as Samir Geagea, who has a romance with KSA).

But ultimately, they are politically weak and are on the back-foot demographically and are losing a lot of land. So instead of being active deciders in the country, they're increasingly becoming sidekicks siding either with the Sunnis or the Shi'ites, or M14 and M8, and betting on their side winning.

Yes, nothing has changed then from the time I followed Lebanese politics more closely.

Yes, the Christian Arabs are becoming fewer in numbers for each decade, which is IMO a shame, and the significant political influence they once had which often manifested itself in Arab nationalism is becoming more and more irrelevant for each day.

What I would do personally as a Sunni Arab politician/leader in Lebanon would be to play the Lebanese nationalism card coupled with a Arab nationalism that is inclusive for Christian Arabs like we saw in Iraq and saw/see in Syria. That way they would turn sides definitively. I think that it is the fear of being oppressed that makes them play on both horses at once. The uncertainty. If just the economic (which a alliance with the Sunni Arab world would quickly solve) and security situation (the hardest hurdle) improves then the rest will follow automatically IMO.

Lastly the Druze can come under that camp as they apparently consider themselves ancestors of the Arab Christian Lakhmid Kingdom who were originally from Yemen.

At least the powerful princely Arsalan family does that and I have heard that they play the biggest role among the Druze community in Lebanon.

 

[anonymus]

What do you think will happen to the Hezzies?

If i am not wrong , Hizbullah has declared that they would seek alliance with Israel if Assad falls.

 

[ResurgentIran]

That will not last for long.

Maybe not. But I think they will definately be dominant in Southern Lebanon which is a de facto Shia state.

 

[al-Hasani]

If i am not wrong , Hizbullah has declared that they would seek alliance with Israel if Assad falls.

I don't see such a alliance emerging in the foreseeable future. I mean HizbAlShaitan has regarded itself as the biggest Arab resistance movement against Israel and both sides have clashed many, many times. HizbAlShaitan was once praised across most of the Arab world for its resistance against Israel. Unfortuantely for them they messed up that legacy completely in a matter of weeks due to their engagement in Syria. Now at least 80% of all Arabs hate their guts and most of the 1.5 billion Sunni Muslims across the world.

There is simply too much bad blood between them, IMO. Also who is to say that Israel would even be interested in such a alliance? Israel has 1000 times more to gain by making peace with its majority Sunni Arab neighboring countries. A Israel surrounded by Sunni Arab states (Egypt, Syria, Palestine, Jordan, KSA and possibly a future Sunni majority Lebanon). What would they gain by doing that? Especially when I don't expect any regional state to go to war with Israel. A state attacking Israel would have everything to lose. I simply don't see that happening. Times have changed in the past 40 years.

Israel knows that it will forever be surrounded by Arab states on all sides. They can't afford to live in such a mental state for another 67 years nor can its neighbors, mainly Palestine.

 

[Informant]

Oh boy

 

[BLACKEAGLE]

Maybe not. But I think they will definately be dominant in Southern Lebanon which is a de facto Shia state.

No, they can't survive against all the odds around especially after Syrian regime inevitable fall. Lebanese are fed up with Halesh who has been hijacking Lebanon to the unknown for 20 years. Lebanese and their allies realized that the safest and best way to get rid of it is through a strong Lebanese army which has got $3 bn donation from KSA and other aids from allies. Stronger Lebanese army dismisses the need to militias in the state. Furthermore, Halesh lost the popular support in Lebanon and in Arab world as soon as it got involved in the war against Syrians.

 

[ResurgentIran]

No, they can't survive against all the odds around especially after Syrian regime inevitable fall. Lebanese are fed up with Halesh who has been hijacking Lebanon to the unknown for 20 years. Lebanese and their allies realized that the safest and best way to get rid of it is through a strong Lebanese army which has got $3 bn donation from KSA and other aids from allies. Stronger Lebanese army dismisses the need to militias in the state. Furthermore, Halesh lost the popular support in Lebanon and in Arab world as soon as it got involved in the war against Syrians.

Except Hezbollah's military is stronger than the Lebanese army and have more missiles than most state armies of the Middle East. lol
Im just saying, if you are trying to have a future Lebanon without the inclusion of Hezbollah, you will run into enormous problems. The type that can completely dissolve a state alltogether.

 

[BLACKEAGLE]

Except Hezbollah's military is stronger than the Lebanese army and have more missiles than most state armies of the Middle East. lol
Im just saying, if you are trying to have a future Lebanon without the inclusion of Hezbollah, you will run into enormous problems. The type that can completely dissolve a state alltogether.

Not really, most of Halesh missile arsenal is 107 and 122 mm which are not considered a real missile threat. It's like international deep concern of MANPADS falling into extremest hands although most countries have better than MANPADS. The point is that extremists unlike countries, actions are not calculated and yet they're more dangerous.

Halesh can be eliminated by strong Lebanese army with well trained and equipped special forces no matter how much missiles Halesh has.

 

[ResurgentIran]

Not really, most of Halesh missile arsenal is 107 and 122 mm which are not considered a real missile threat. It's like international deep concern of MANPADS falling into extremest hands although most countries have better than MANPADS. The point is that extremists unlike countries, actions are not calculated and yet they're more dangerous.

Halesh can be eliminated by strong Lebanese army with well trained and equipped special forces no matter how much missiles Halesh has.

Well that has civil war and destruction of Lebanon written all over it.
Sorry but what you are saying is based on emotions and fantasy.

The only viable option is coexistence.

 

[BLACKEAGLE]

Well that has civil war and destruction of Lebanon written all over it.
Sorry but what you are saying is based on emotions and fantasy.

The only viable option is coexistence.

It's based on facts presented on the table not fantasy. Coexistence can't happen as long as there is a part other than the state's intimating others with it's armed power.

 

[Halimi]

Coexistence is what everyone aspires to. But it's very difficult when one community is armed to the teeth, while others aren't and the state is weak.

 

[Yzd Khalifa]

If i am not wrong , Hizbullah has declared that they would seek alliance with Israel if Assad falls.

There is nothing wrong in declaring alliance or maintaing good ties with Israel. Jordan, Egypt, Morocco, and Turkey have excellent ties with Israel. What is wrong is shouting and raving on the grid all day long " Death to Israel, death to America " or " Down with Saudi Arabia " .... and for all of the sudden, when some shit hits the fan, declaring to seek an alliance with an allegedly sworn enemy of which they take pride for fighting for 30 years. This shows the level of frustration of the axis of
" resistance "

But that isn't solely exclusive to Hezbollah, even the so-called Pan-Arabist allies of Hezbollah in the Levant is speaking with the same tone.

That's why we don't trust militant groups \ armed political parties whatsoever.

 

[Halimi]

@Yzd Khalifa

Where's your signature from? A quote?

 

[Falcon29]

I don't see such a alliance emerging in the foreseeable future. I mean HizbAlShaitan has regarded itself as the biggest Arab resistance movement against Israel and both sides have clashed many, many times. HizbAlShaitan was once praised across most of the Arab world for its resistance against Israel. Unfortuantely for them they messed up that legacy completely in a matter of weeks due to their engagement in Syria. Now at least 80% of all Arabs hate their guts and most of the 1.5 billion Sunni Muslims across the world.

There is simply too much bad blood between them, IMO. Also who is to say that Israel would even be interested in such a alliance? Israel has 1000 times more to gain by making peace with its majority Sunni Arab neighboring countries. A Israel surrounded by Sunni Arab states (Egypt, Syria, Palestine, Jordan, KSA and possibly a future Sunni majority Lebanon). What would they gain by doing that? Especially when I don't expect any regional state to go to war with Israel. A state attacking Israel would have everything to lose. I simply don't see that happening. Times have changed in the past 40 years.

Israel knows that it will forever be surrounded by Arab states on all sides. They can't afford to live in such a mental state for another 67 years nor can its neighbors, mainly Palestine.

No they wouldn't, Turkey alone can humiliate Israel, we have the capabilities. We lack motivation and will.

Well that has civil war and destruction of Lebanon written all over it.
Sorry but what you are saying is based on emotions and fantasy.

The only viable option is coexistence.

I agree, it will lead to miserable bloodshed, I'm not sure how things will change in the future though. In Palestine, Fatah is talking about dismantling the Qassam Brigades, although that's never happening. All the Palestinians support our resistance organizations which are basically our national army. The military spokesmen told them this:

Qassam Brigades spokesman Abu Ubaida said that whoever thinks of eliminating the Qassam Brigades will himself be eliminated from the pages of history.”

.......

We aren't giving up our national army for a PA/Israel joint security apparatus. For Lebanon it's a scary situation, it might get worse, although people here don't consider that the Lebanese army would not be able to stop any militants.

More militant organizations will form out of fear for their communities, so more Sunni/Shia militias and the Palestinians in the refugee camps will try capturing weapons and firing rockets at Israel, lol.

 

[Falcon29]

Coexistence is what everyone aspires to. But it's very difficult when one community is armed to the teeth, while others aren't and the state is weak.

You talk about it as if it's an easy task. If you want people to doubt Hezbollah, make Hezbollah meaningless. Then take their place, if you want to accelerate the process.