Saudi Arabia announces 20% defence budget increase

[SQ8]

1) It makes perfect sense. Groups like ISIS and other terrorist groups only operate in weak nation states or semi-failed nation states or regions. Look at the groups that cause havoc from Mali to the tribal areas of Pakistan. The same problems can be found in all of those places.

This is not the case in KSA ANYWHERE.

2) So you really believe that ISIS will suddenly move all their focus away from Eastern Syria, Al-Anbar and the Al-Jazira region in Iraq just to attempt to roll into Northern KSA? The same Northern KSA that is one of the most heavily militarized zones of the ME and which has amble military bases, airbases next by? Let's not even talk about geography. Despite numerous valleys and highlands here and there in the Northern regions/provinces the territory is mostly steppe/desert or just flat grasslands. It's ideal territory for an air force to do what it does best or for an professional army to do what they do best.

3) Yet KSA is one of the few if not only major countries that have managed to clamp down more or less fully on an local insurgency like KSA did in the 2000's. Yet ISIS has been causing riots in Iraq and Syria for at least 2 years now and we have only seen 1 attack in KSA since then. On a border post near Yemen. This speaks volumes. Besides ISIS has minimal support in KSA. People value stability and prosperity over what has been seen during the Arab Spring especially in nearby Syria. Nobody is interested to repeat such a stunt and there are no real initiatives that can cause such an uprising as KSA is in a stronger position than ever as is the whole GCC. You are underestimating AQAP. Before the rise of ISIS they were the most powerful terrorist group in the ME if not the world.

Anyway I have to go and we are off-topic.

1). Many of the IS recruits come from STABLE states. Essentially normal folks who get hooked onto the idea of a united Islamic state by force, nothing prevents that from happening in Saudi Arabia.

2). They wont move their focus, this is a gradual move and their ultimate goal. Your 20% increase will not land 500 tanks tomorrow morning. It is also a gradual increase. You clearly need to look at cases of guerilla warfare in Algeria, Libya and most recently Iraq as well. Despite ample air power in these areas, it took boots on the ground and a lot of casualties to accomplish some sort of stalemate against what were essentially 1/10th of IS forces.


3) IS is not at all targeting stability and prosperity, it is targeting a a general frustration with events. Which is visible in the trend of recruits coming in. AQAP was laughable at best with 500 terrorists looking for terror activities. Here you are talking about some 10000+ fighters capable of waging both guerilla and conventional warfare..and this is the current state. What of two years, five years later?

Guerilla tactics in an empty desert!!! Are you not aware of KSA, Iraq geography?

Conventional warfare against the most powerful air force in the region?

Not sure if your being serious.

Perhaps you need to read some history. And learn about the limitations of air power.. but that requires some serious brain power.

 

[al-Hasani]

1). Many of the IS recruits come from STABLE states. Essentially normal folks who get hooked onto the idea of a united Islamic state by force, nothing prevents that from happening in Saudi Arabia.

2). They wont move their focus, this is a gradual move and their ultimate goal. Your 20% increase will not land 500 tanks tomorrow morning. It is also a gradual increase. You clearly need to look at cases of guerilla warfare in Algeria, Libya and most recently Iraq as well. Despite ample air power in these areas, it took boots on the ground and a lot of casualties to accomplish some sort of stalemate against what were essentially 1/10th of IS forces.


3) IS is not at all targeting stability and prosperity, it is targeting a a general frustration with events. Which is visible in the trend of recruits coming in. AQAP was laughable at best with 500 terrorists looking for terror activities. Here you are talking about some 10000+ fighters capable of waging both guerilla and conventional warfare..and this is the current state. What of two years, five years later?



Perhaps you need to read some history. And learn about the limitations of air power.. but that requires some serious brain power.

1) I gave you the reasons why ISIS will not succeed in KSA and have not done so despite being situated along our borders and in nearby Syria for 2-3 years now. Let alone AQAP in nearby Yemen in the South. I find your arguments weak I have to admit in this case.

2) As I said how do you really come to the conclusion of an all-out ISIS invasion of the Northern provinces/regions of KSA being a possibility given what I told you of facts? I just want to understand what makes you believe that this is a real possibility. So far your arguments have been vague with all due respect and not very concrete.

3) This is because of the events in Syria. Before the events in Syria ISIS in Iraq were a regional terrorist group just like AQAP are a mostly regional terrorist group confined to parts of Yemen. The events in Syria have enabled them to get those thousands of recruits along with their new "Caliph".

Anyway how many members do ISIS have? 40.000 AT MOST. How many of them are hardcore members willing to fight on several fronts? I doubt that all of them are. More importantly is ISIS even able to fight on that many fronts at the same time? Don't forget that their "homeland" is Iraq and Eastern Syria. That's where their primary goals are found and that's where they are doing 100% of their fighting. Now with the US and other world powers involved in combating them I don't believe that they are able to open another front let alone into such a powerful country like KSA whose resources are vital for the world powers etc.

The worst that can happen is a repeat of the events during the 2000's. This time just a bit bigger. The end goal will be the same though. A defeat/neutralization for those groups.

 

[Arabian Legend]

Perhaps you need to read some history. And learn about the limitations of air power.. but that requires some serious brain power.

My brain capacity is certainly much bigger than yours. Its you who needs to be military knowledgable when laying down such analysis. Saudi Arabia operates, tanks, helicopters, fighter jets loaded with cluster bombs, stormshado, paveways..etc. In this case the IS have zero chance challenging such a massive power.

 

[xenon54 out]

KSA has its own military satellite and data linked system.

He meant Navigation system such as GPS, Galileo, Glonass or Beidu.

 

[Arabian Legend]

The increase is because of the Navy's deal(s). The Navy if reports I heard were true is going to become the forward facing force of KSA in the future in stead of the Air Force. KSA wants to absorb the US's role in the region. And that is a large undertaking.

And the RSNG as well.

 

[SQ8]

1) I gave you the reasons why ISIS will not succeed in KSA and have not done so despite being situated along our borders and in nearby Syria for 2-3 years now. Let alone AQAP in nearby Yemen in the South. I find your arguments weak I have to admit in this case.

2) As I said how do you really come into the conclusion of an all-out ISIS invasion of the Northern provinces/regions of KSA being a possibility given what I told you of facts? I just want to understand what makes you believe that this is a real possibility. So far your arguments have been vague with all due respect and not very concrete.

3) This is because of the events in Syria. Before the events in Syria ISIS in Iraq were a regional terrorist group just like AQAP are a mostly regional terrorist group confined to parts of Yemen. The events in Syria have enabled them to get those thousands of recruits along with their new "Caliph".

Anyway how many members do ISIS have? 40.000 AT MOST. How many of them are hardcore members willing to fight on several fronts? I doubt that all of them are. More importantly is ISIS even able to fight on that many fronts at the same time? Don't forget that their "homeland" is Iraq and Eastern Syria. That's where their primary goals are found and that's where they are doing 100% of their fighting. Now with the US and other world powers involved in combating them I don't believe that they are able to open another front let alone into such a powerful country like KSA whose resources are vital for the world powers etc.

The worst that can happen is a repeat of the events during the 2000's. This time just a bit bigger. The end goal will be the same though. A defeat/neutralization for those groups.

1) I dont buy your reasons for success because success is not what I forsee for the IS. I see it as a threat that SA will have to face sooner or later. I find your arguments on SA's invulnerability to the effects and influence of IS weak.

2) I never said an all out invasion. That is your conclusion and your mistake of looking at IS as expanding everywhere at once. This is not a scenario for tomorrow, it is one for one or five years unless massive intervention is undertaken to defeat IS now. The rapid force by which IS is recruiting and expanding is not to be taken lightly. My vagueness has little to do with your lack of timeframe. At first the argument was about the unsuitability of the desert for guerilla warfare which a basic read through history proves utterly wrong. Then it was about Airpower, which history has also proven utterly wrong. So which of your arguments about KSA's Iron curtain then stands on factual pillars?

3). Essentially, those events in Syria which were backed by KSA in its short sighted move to reduce Iranian influence has resulting in an ideology that is not much different from the flavour pushed by the KSA state itself. Except that unlike the strict regulation of the ideology in KSA to ensure that no one other than the government has the right to use force, here the ability to twist religion into criminal warcrime has been given a free hand. What stops IS then of basically disguising its propaganda in the guise of being compatible with the KSA state's religious projections?

Again, your focus is on assuming that IS is fighting like some ragtag bandit group when it has displayed much more coherency in its organization. Those 40000+ fighters are not going after KSA tomorrow, they will come for KSA once they are through with Syria and Iraq.

As a counter argument and strategy, it may also be that IS could/should be infiltrated and then funded by KSA intelligence. Since their focus lies much more on the elimination of all other ideologies within Islam except theirs..which means that KSA is easily the most safe from IS..whose greater focus will be on the Shia crescent.

My brain capacity is certainly much bigger than yours. Its you who needs to be military knowledgable when laying down such analysis. Saudi Arabia operates, tanks, helicopters, fighter jets loaded with cluster bombs, stormshado, paveways..etc. In this case the IS have zero chance challenging such a massive power.

Oh goodie. Perhaps you should use that capacity, otherwise we can sell your brain as brand new I guess. Considering that the conflicts of Afghanistan and Iraq have left little impact on your information holding/processing ability.

 

[Arabian Legend]

He meant Navigation system such as GPS, Galileo, Glonass or Beidu.

Yes Saudi made Lamah systems, Military Satellite and Date linked systems along with the E-3 and Saab2000 work as GPS their selves. This issue has been taken in consternation long ago.

 

[SQ8]

@al-Hasani

Your own report led me here, now dont tell me Reuters is unreliable
Saudi Arabia jails 23 more men for militancy in security crackdown| Reuters

 

[rmi5]

What lead you to this conclusion?

What Mosamania said, makes sense. USA is changing her policy. USA will move her forces from ME to Pacific Ocean and East Asia in future, since that region is getting more important for USA, and the increasing rate of exploitation of oil shales in North America will make US independent from ME in future

 

[Nova2]

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scopio betth than these ..ask any poice guy .. m&m know for tough cars
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Maybe scorpia would be tougher than innova or fortuner,bt fortuner were brought to patrol ORR ,so it was more abt speed than toughness in that case
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Toyota have been ordered to replace old city police junks,some 1000 have been ordered i guess.
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The bolder part is maintaince which they fail to do.
anyways who would not like having a fancy car,tough or not

 

[al-Hasani]

@al-Hasani

Your own report led me here, now dont tell me Reuters is unreliable
Saudi Arabia jails 23 more men for militancy in security crackdown| Reuters

What does this report prove my friend? I already told you that there are people inside KSA who are sympathetic to the ISIS or just use ISIS as a way to remove the regime that they for various reasons don't agree with. Yet those people are still a very small minority and as you can see the state is doing a good job in catching those few dozens of people.

Let me tell you that those arrested have been under observation for a long time. Some of them have ties to the events that took place in the 2000's.

I will be back to you later tonight as I have to go. I saw your post and will not ignore it. I just can't make a reply now.

 

[xenon54 out]

Yes Saudi made Lamah systems, Military Satellite and Date linked systems along with the E-3 and Saab2000 work as GPS their selves. This issue has been taken in consternation long ago.

Is this a global navigation system or just limited to KSA, i couldnt find any info about it.

 

[Contrarian]

Have you?



Go ask a Saudi sailor who do they train 'against' as potential adversaries.

Iranian Navy will be blown to pieces by Saudi Air Force. They can establish air dominance in matter of hours. So if RSAN's focus is not on Iran than on who?

They are buying Lockheed Martin LCS for Iran, to fight in Green Waters - but who the Arleigh Burke Class Destroyers and FREMM class frigates and Marlin Class or U-214 class subs for - that too 6 of them ?

And while your comments do seem out of sync with reality...let me first add - We feel honoured.

But No, India and KSA have no chance of any fight. India and KSA have zero dispute over land or resources. In fact Indian companies use KSA as a springboard for their regional projects in Middle East. It is an important market for us. One in which we have been increasingly investing.

Apart from that KSA is our largest supplier of oil.

There is literally zero chance of direct conflict between the two...unless KSA ever decides to enter an Indo-Pak war. And that is something we know will not happen till pigs start to fly or Pakistanis start sleeping (considering such thoughts generally come as dreams).

And the reasons for KSA's recent military modernization are clear as day to almost all analysts. Feel free to google once in a while before giving opinion as fact.

 

[xenon54 out]

What Mosamania said, makes sense. USA is changing her policy. USA will move her forces from ME to Pacific Ocean and East Asia in future, since that region is getting more important for USA, and the increasing rate of exploitation of oil shales in North America will make US independent from ME in future

Us is allready the biggest oil producer again.

 

[rmi5]

Us is allready the biggest oil producer again.

Yup, it would be so very soon and it would become an oil exporter in the next two decades
NA oil shale reserves are around 2.6 trillion barrel which is about two times of the current world oil reserves. The important point is about the exploitation costs, in which many of this huge reserve is economical for oil prices higher than 70$ per barrel
Another positive point is that about half of trade deficit is for importing oil, and getting independent means that half of trade deficit would be vanished

On Topic: 80 bln$ military budget is impressive. I hope KSA starts to invest a good portion of this money on local military companies.