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Saudi Arabia and Iran Make Quiet Openings to Head Off War

This is a big news and has strategic implications for Pakistan. From today's NY Times.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/04/world/middleeast/saudi-arabia-iran-talks.html

Saudi Arabia and Iran Make Quiet Openings to Head Off War

After years of growing hostility and competition for influence, Saudi Arabia and Iran have taken steps toward indirect talks to try to reduce the tensions that have brought the Middle East to the brink of war, according to officials from several countries involved in the efforts.

Even the prospect of such talks represents a remarkable turnaround, coming only a few weeks after a coordinated attack on Saudi oil installations led to bellicose threats in the Persian Gulf. Any reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Iran could have far-reaching consequences for conflicts across the region.

It was President Trump’s refusal to retaliate against Iran for the Sept. 14 attack, analysts say, that set off unintended consequences, prompting Saudi Arabia to seek its own solution to the conflict. That solution, in turn, could subvert Mr. Trump’s effort to build an Arab alliance to isolate Iran.

In recent weeks, officials of Iraq and Pakistan said, the Saudi crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, asked the leaders of those two countries to speak with their Iranian counterparts about de-escalation.

Iran welcomed the gestures, stating privately and publicly that it was open to talks with Saudi Arabia.

In a statement to The New York Times on Friday, the Saudi government acknowledged that Iraq and Pakistan had offered to mediate talks between the two countries but denied that Prince Mohammed had taken the initiative.

“Efforts at de-escalation must emanate from the party that began the escalation and launched attacks, not the kingdom,” the statement said.

Distrust between the two Middle Eastern powers remains intense, and the prospect of high-level direct talks any time soon appears remote. But even a slight warming could echo far outside their respective borders, where their rivalry fuels political divides from Lebanon to Yemen.

Iran has long wanted to wrest the Saudis from their alliance with Iran’s archenemies, Israel and the United States, which are waging a “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran to try to force it to restrict its nuclear program and stop backing militias in the region.

Iran’s receptiveness for contact with the Saudis contrasts with its chilly tone toward the United States. Last week, Iran’s president, Hassan Rouhani, dodged an opportunity to speak directly with Mr. Trump while both were attending the United Nations General Assembly in New York.

The new overtures between Saudi Arabia and Iran began in the aftermath of last month’s drone and cruise missile strikes on two Saudi oil facilities, which Saudi Arabia and the United States accused Iran of orchestrating.

Despite tough threats by the Trump administration, the president declined to order a military response. The demurral raised questions for the Saudis about the American commitment to Saudi security, which has underpinned the strategic layout of the Persian Gulf for decades.

Prime Minister Imran Khan of Pakistan met with Prince Mohammed, the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, in Jeddah last month. Days later, while Mr. Khan was at the General Assembly, he told reporters that Prince Mohammed had asked him to talk to Iran.

Prince Mohammed told Mr. Khan, “I want to avoid war,” according to a senior Pakistani official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to reporters. “He asked the prime minister to get involved.”

Mr. Khan then spoke with Mr. Rouhani on the sidelines of the General Assembly.


The Iraqi prime minister, Adel Abdul Mahdi, visited Saudi Arabia a few days after Mr. Khan did.

Iran’s receptiveness for contact with the Saudis contrasts with its chilly tone toward the United States. Last week, Iran’s president, Hassan Rouhani, dodged an opportunity to speak directly with Mr. Trump while both were attending the United Nations General Assembly in New York.

The new overtures between Saudi Arabia and Iran began in the aftermath of last month’s drone and cruise missile strikes on two Saudi oil facilities, which Saudi Arabia and the United States accused Iran of orchestrating.

Despite tough threats by the Trump administration, the president declined to order a military response. The demurral raised questions for the Saudis about the American commitment to Saudi security, which has underpinned the strategic layout of the Persian Gulf for decades.

Prime Minister Imran Khan of Pakistan met with Prince Mohammed, the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, in Jeddah last month. Days later, while Mr. Khan was at the General Assembly, he told reporters that Prince Mohammed had asked him to talk to Iran.

Prince Mohammed told Mr. Khan, “I want to avoid war,” according to a senior Pakistani official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to reporters. “He asked the prime minister to get involved.”

Mr. Khan then spoke with Mr. Rouhani on the sidelines of the General Assembly.

The Iraqi prime minister, Adel Abdul Mahdi, visited Saudi Arabia a few days after Mr. Khan did.
Reason is very simple: Trump administration have refused to attack Iran to appease KSA.

One of the conditions of Trump administration is this: if US is to fight a war with Iran, KSA will have to fund it and participate in it at equal capacity.

Muhammad Bin Salman is afraid and reluctant because war in Yemen did not had a meaningful outcome for KSA. Iran represent a conflict of much greater scale and difficulty in comparison.

These talks are intended to prevent Abqaiq oil refinery type attacks in KSA; non-aggression pact of sorts. Pakistan have facilitated these talks for the same reason.
 
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The attacks on the Saudi oil infrastructure caused massive panic in Riyadh. So now they are suing for peace with Iran.

The Saudis are incompetent fighters. They are extremely lazy and arrogant people. Despite the fact that they have the world's third largest military budget, they can barely put up a fight because their soldiers are lazy and incompetent. Saudi Arabia is no match for Iran, a much poorer country but with a real fighting spirit.
 
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Despite the fact that they have the world's third largest military budget

Wow!
So despite the $ they spend they still have to ask Uncle Sam for help! Sounds to me like they 'buy' assurances from Uncle Sam by buying weapons which they can't really use.

Anyway, this is a most welcome development if goes forward. There are very powerful countries who wouldn't want a detente between Iran and KSA but let's hope for the best.

As for Pakistanis--as PDF would show, despite some favoritism to either of the two countries, I'd say most PDF members instinctively know that there should be peace in the region and peace between KSA and Iran.
 
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Why Saudi need Pakistani PM or Iraqi Leader to talk with Iran?
Ask Imran Khan to give out details, word by word.
Even before the attack on Abqaiq refinery, Imran Khan had a statement of warning for GCC to not act against Iran.
This is all on record and time line can be established.

As for Pakistanis--as PDF would show, despite some favoritism to either of the two countries, I'd say most PDF members instinctively know that there should be peace in the region and peace between KSA and Iran.
PDF forum is pro Iranian, obviously due to sectarian reasons, they all support attack on Saudi Arabia but don't want Saudis to retaliate.
They would get abusive to the random member who call Iranian missile attacks on Saudis as an act of terrorism, which is also a sign of biased moderation.

As you also taunt Saudis in your post, for their extensive defense budget, which seems to be the bigger issue for PDF members rather than IRGC terrorists.

Contrary to propaganda on defense.pk, i don't remember any counter attacks from Saudi on Iran. Or may some one shall point it out.
Otherwise, so far destabilization region had only been one sided affair.
 
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They would get abusive to the random member who call Iranian missile attacks on Saudis as an act of terrorism, which is also a sign of biased moderation.

As you also taunt Saudis in your post, for their extensive defense budget, which seems to be the bigger issue for PDF members rather than IRGC terrorists.

Firstly, I am no pro Iran or pro KSA. You will not find me bashing KSA unlike other members do. KSA has helped Pakistan a lot in difficult times, which can't be said about Iran.

As for bashing KSA over the weapons purchase--yes, I'd do that. Buying hundreds of billions from Uncle Sam but can't defend themselves? Pakistan is doing far better on that score despite a very meager budget. These are just facts.

Anyway, I want peace between these two stupid theocracies which are only going to ruin our region and Pakistan because of their short sightedness. Their war will only benefit Israel, India and the West!
 
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Well the idea of talk has always been on the table something Saudis never took, we've always sought diplomacy link.. even if these calls for talks are real I do not trust Saudis as it was Saudis whom got out of security pack btw 2 countries back in 2005 and started asking american to attack Iran or siding against Hezbollah in 2006 war.. recently on "destroying us in 8mins" or "bringing war within Iran" or their lobbies for destroying JCPoA ..... so I think without real steps words are meaningless ...
As long as Saudis playing in american court peace and security is a distance mirage for people in south west Asia.
 
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It seems that the next 30-40 years will be very difficult for the Saudi Regime. They spent tons of money on armament and got nothing in return. The only winner was the US military-industrial complex. They're a real genius!
 
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By firing Bolton--a known Iran hater and a hawk--Trump is sending clear signals about his intentions to not inflame the Middle East any further. As we Pakistanis know, we are in a tough spot in case of a ME war.

Your answer is quite intriguing. From what I heard in the news, Pakistan has shown consistent neutrality between Iran and Saudi Arabia during the Yemen Crisis.

How would this particular situation put your country in any trouble? Could you please explain?

Thanks.
 
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Your answer is quite intriguing. From what I heard in the news, Pakistan has shown consistent neutrality between Iran and Saudi Arabia during the Yemen Crisis.

How would this particular situation put your country in any trouble? Could you please explain?

Thanks.

Pakistan will NEVER want to be in an open hostile situation against Iran. Iran is a neighbor. Unless and until Iran attacks Pakistan directly, Pakistan will not want to open another front. Despite all the noise about Pakistan-Iran border issues, fact is that Pakistan hardly needs to deploy significant forces there. That should tell you a lot.

At most Pakistan is going to help KSA by guarding the 'Holy Places', providing training, and perhaps protecting the royal family.

It is already a difficult situation for Pakistan even before open hostilities between the two countries and in case of war it will get much worse. And that's why Pakistan really really needs peace between the two countries.
 
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Not sure about #2 and 3. But things have definitely changed for the better in international arena for Pakistan.
What CIA findings?
Thanks

You guys have the habbit of bringing India even in Iran Palestine conflict...It is not surprising..
 
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Reason is very simple: Trump administration have refused to attack Iran to appease KSA.

One of the conditions of Trump administration is this: if US is to fight a war with Iran, KSA will have to fund it and participate in it at equal capacity.

Muhammad Bin Salman is afraid and reluctant because war in Yemen did not had a meaningful outcome for KSA. Iran represent a conflict of much greater scale and difficulty in comparison.

These talks are intended to prevent Abqaiq oil refinery type attacks in KSA; non-aggression pact of sorts. Pakistan have facilitated these talks for the same reason.

That's your assumption right?

Attack on Abqaiq refinery wasn't the first one, and is also an act of terrorism, which is not owned by Iran.
Why should Pakistan jump in now, when they didn't joined IMCTC?
 
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