Sarkozy says Iran nuclear bid could provoke preemptive military action

[bhangra12345]

There is of course a third option........

Iran doesn't have to face them directly it can ramp up the attacks on U.S. forces and increase the supplies of weapons to insurgents in Afghan and Iraq. Infiltrate more revolutionary gaurds into Iraq and Afghan and engage in Insurgency.

Why do you forget keys that in case of an emergency, that they can simply leave iraq and afghan to their fate?

 

[Keysersoze]

Why do you forget keys that in case of an emergency, that they can simply leave iraq and afghan to their fate?

They could but they won't.......why? Because it would be seen as a defeat and also they would have no control over what govt would spring up afterward. (basically Iran's influence and control of oil resources would increase)

 

[bhangra12345]

They could but they won't.......why? Because it would be seen as a defeat and also they would have no control over what govt would spring up afterward. (basically Iran's influence and control of oil resources would increase)

You are here assuming that they will leave iran intact....

in case they are leaving due to iran, dont expect that.

 

[Keysersoze]

You are here assuming that they will leave iran intact....

in case they are leaving due to iran, dont expect that.

And how will they destroy Iran?
Blow it all up and lose all that juicy oil? Not to mention the international out cry. There is noone nearby that can take advantage of the situation and the fact that the Iranians tend to have a bit of unity will scupper those plans.

Simple fact is.......you can't win a war from the air.....and they won't bomb every part of the countries infrastructure. (Also most of the nuclear programs will be in hardened underground facilities nd it will be hard to get all of those as well)

 

[Always Neutral]

There is of course a third option........

Iran doesn't have to face them directly it can ramp up the attacks on U.S. forces and increase the supplies of weapons to insurgents in Afghan and Iraq. Infiltrate more revolutionary gaurds into Iraq and Afghan and engage in Insurgency.

Its already and very cleverly do just that. I personally think the US has never actually forgiven them for taking their embassy hostage and showing them impotent in front of the world.

I would not invest in Iran for the next two years.

 

[blitz]

And how will they destroy Iran?
Blow it all up and lose all that juicy oil? Not to mention the international out cry. There is noone nearby that can take advantage of the situation and the fact that the Iranians tend to have a bit of unity will scupper those plans.

Simple fact is.......you can't win a war from the air.....and they won't bomb every part of the countries infrastructure. (Also most of the nuclear programs will be in hardened underground facilities nd it will be hard to get all of those as well)

How about bomb every important military, civilian, educational, administration and leadership building in Iran. Bomb power plants, water reservoirs, road networks, bridges, rail lines and communication centers. Then enforce land, air and sea blockade of every essential item including food, medicine and fuel for 10 years. NATO already surrounds Iran from almost every direction. Will it be enough ? NATO can surely achieve this much dont you think ? Will you consider that a defeat Key ? All this won't require any boots on the ground.

 

[Keysersoze]

How about bomb every important military, civilian, educational, administration and leadership building in Iran. Bomb power plants, water reservoirs, road networks, bridges, rail lines and communication centers. Then enforce land, air and sea blockade of every essential item including food, medicine and fuel for 10 years. NATO already surrounds Iran from almost every direction. Will it be enough ? NATO can surely achieve this much dont you think ? Will you consider that a defeat Key ? All this won't require any boots on the ground.

sheesh sounds so easy doesn't it....and what about the political fallout? the inevitable oil embargo? or the fact that the costs would be absolutely huge! (Do you know how many bombs that would entail? America would lose what little sympathy it has already. And any American target would be fair game. And since there wouldn't be any political change it would mean that the regime would remain embeded.

Wait I remember something like this before........oh yes IRAQ! that went well didn't it!

As the saying goes......works well in theory but in reality it wouldn't last a minute.

 

[Always Neutral]

By the way Pakistan and India would not like that. Iran has very friendly relations with both. NATO will not join in as its charter of duties do not allow it attack another country unless it attacks a NATO member. In Afghanistan there was a direct attack on USA so NATO went in there. In Iraq there was no such conditions so NATO stayed out.

 

[blitz]

sheesh sounds so easy doesn't it....and what about the political fallout? the inevitable oil embargo? or the fact that the costs would be absolutely huge! (Do you know how many bombs that would entail? America would lose what little sympathy it has already. And any American target would be fair game. And since there wouldn't be any political change it would mean that the regime would remain embeded.

Wait I remember something like this before........oh yes IRAQ! that went well didn't it!

As the saying goes......works well in theory but in reality it wouldn't last a minute.

Political fallout ? What political fall out ? I dont see the US caving into any international pressure. What i do see is the US caving into domestic political pressure, and thats because of all the body bags coming home.

What oil embargo ? Whose going to enforce an oil embargo against the US ? Saudi ? US already has Iraqi and South American and soon Russian oil at its disposal.

Cost is a genuine factor. But the world still deals in American dollars, and oil is still traded in Dollars. They can keep printing dollars and adding on to their debt. I dont see the US repaying the already piled up debt anytime soon.

Since when did sympathy start affecting how nations behave in the real world ? And why should they care ?

Political change, thats an iffy. If the leadership can be decapitated then well and good, otherwise Iran will be depopulated within a decade anyways. Wouldn't matter much either way.

NOT comparable to Iraq !! No boots on the ground remember ? No nation building. No 'hearts and mind' here.

 

[Keysersoze]

Political fallout ? What political fall out ? I dont see the US caving into any international pressure. What i do see is the US caving into domestic political pressure, and thats because of all the body bags coming home.

What oil embargo ? Whose going to enforce an oil embargo against the US ? Saudi ? US already has Iraqi and South American and soon Russian oil at its disposal.

Cost is a genuine factor. But the world still deals in American dollars, and oil is still traded in Dollars. They can keep printing dollars and adding on to their debt. I dont see the US repaying the already piled up debt anytime soon.

Since when did sympathy start affecting how nations behave in the real world ? And why should they care ?

Political change, thats an iffy. If the leadership can be decapitated then well and good, otherwise Iran will be depopulated within a decade anyways. Wouldn't matter much either way.

NOT comparable to Iraq !! No boots on the ground remember ? No nation building. No 'hearts and mind' here.

Its actually quite simple....the Americans like to see themselves as the good guys.....If they go on the rampage and destroy a nation it will be something no-one other than the hawks (who have fast gone out of fashion) would be pleased with.
secondly they would have to deal with the aftermath.(apart form the famine disease etc) They would have severally hampered the two of the largest producers of oil in the world (Iraq (which has reduced output) and Iran) which would have repercussion upon the world economy. which would hit America very hard. no oil no transport for food around the world...food and commodity prices go up to very high levels Everyone loses.......

 

[kidwaibhai]

to all the people here who think that the us will attack iran form the air so massively that it will be the end of iran first lets consider 2 things. first the international outcry will massive about the lose of civil life and secondly remember what isreal tried to do with hizbullah only attacking with the air remember what happend there absalutally nothing it didnt even dent hisbullalh the only thing that actually made the difference is when they sent ground forces.
so that should be a lesson for our american friends one can never win the war from the air no matter how technologically advance their airforce might be. and if the US actually puts an oil embargo with iran does anybody here think that china will accept that. also this would increase the price of oi l so high that it will plunge the economy into a nose dive.

 

[roadrunner]

3% of the population isn't that big a number. Of course...with their higher birthrates and all...they will increase considerably in the future...but that i guess is part of another discussion.

Oddly enough, this coming from a citizen of the second most populous country in the world, with over a billion inhabitants crammed into nearly as much space as the Sudan. Dude, you guys are the experts in high birth rates.

 

[haviZsultan]

Its actually quite simple....the Americans like to see themselves as the good guys.....If they go on the rampage and destroy a nation it will be something no-one other than the hawks (who have fast gone out of fashion) would be pleased with.
secondly they would have to deal with the aftermath.(apart form the famine disease etc) They would have severally hampered the two of the largest producers of oil in the world (Iraq (which has reduced output) and Iran) which would have repercussion upon the world economy. which would hit America very hard. no oil no transport for food around the world...food and commodity prices go up to very high levels Everyone loses.......

Exactly, the American government does not want its people to see it as the aggressor! That is why they are trying to present Iran as a hostile nation to the United States and as "a threat to the region" I actually think they will attack Iran but only after they strenthen their lies and idiotic theories. E.G Nuclear Weapons to attack countries, cross border terrorism and Iran and Iranian support for terrorist organizations such as hezbollah and terrorists in Iraq(yeah sounds crazy to us that they present the defenders of a country as terrorists and they present such unbelievable lies such as Iranian support for Iraqi terrorists but the way Iran is presented in the west many people would even believe it! Especially the american anti-muslim fanatics!

Actually they have secured a source of oil already which is Iraq and now they can do the same in Iran. Billions of dollars worth of oil money in Iraq played into American hands in the oil for food program which was found to be totally corrupt. They were actually cheating the Saddam government! I don't think oil is a problem for them. The Americans have storage facilities for oil and even if oil is banned to them then they still have enough oil for atleast the next 6 months. I don't think that America will lose that much... or that it would convince the bush government not to attack Iran

 

[blitz]

Oddly enough, this coming from a citizen of the second most populous country in the world, with over a billion inhabitants crammed into nearly as much space as the Sudan. Dude, you guys are the experts in high birth rates.

Eh, India = Sudan in size ? What geography class did you go to ? Oh nevermind, i got it.

 

[blitz]

Its actually quite simple....the Americans like to see themselves as the good guys.....If they go on the rampage and destroy a nation it will be something no-one other than the hawks (who have fast gone out of fashion) would be pleased with.
secondly they would have to deal with the aftermath.(apart form the famine disease etc) They would have severally hampered the two of the largest producers of oil in the world (Iraq (which has reduced output) and Iran) which would have repercussion upon the world economy. which would hit America very hard. no oil no transport for food around the world...food and commodity prices go up to very high levels Everyone loses.......

Exactly key. You are right. My contention is with people who confuse intent with capability. Just because some one doesn't want to do something, doesn't mean he can't do it. But this false analogy of intent = capability abounds on this forum.

You have to realize that a lot of limitations of the modern world are self-imposed. These 'moral' limitations of not using Nuclear, Chemical and Biological weapons have been created by the human mind, and they can just as easily be swept aside by the human mind. When the wrong people get to the wrong position of power at the wrong time, a lot of contemporary worlds rules and regulations will evaporate in mushroom clouds.