S-400,NASAMS,BMD and Now THAAD !! Is India preparing to tweaks it’s Nuclear Policies?

[randomradio]

Riiiggghhhhttt. Pakistan will NOT care what the International community thinks. Pakistan would never have developed Nasr if what you said was even remotely correct. It is your personal assumption, not even the Indian military brass thinks that way.

The development of Nasr and the deployment of nukes on Nasr are two different things. Nasr can be used as conventional artillery as well. The fact that Nasr with nukes has not yet been deployed is proof of that.

Yes, the consequences will be probably devastating. India would have to either not strike at all, proportionally strike (e.g. against the respective missile garrison) or unleash everything. In response, Pakistan will either proportionally strike or go all out. Its called escalation, read about it. Why do you think US is re-introducing tactical nukes for Trident warheads? Because they want a proportional response option. Regardless of what every keyboard warrior here thinks, an Indo-Pak nuclear exchange will be (relatively) gradual and proportional, providing both sides with option to cease-fire at any stage.

I doubt we will ever use tactical nukes. And as long as you allow us to get the first hit in, that's good enough for us. Our primary targets will be military in nature anyway.

There's no point applying experiences of the US and Russia in the India-Pak context. They have far too many nukes.

It doesn't matters for Pakistan whether India is working on it or not.
And MaRVs are not necessarily air-breathing, both the Avangard and Starry-Sky 2 are HGVs. Similarly the US programs, except the HABV, are HGVs. Even something like DF-21's MaRV would be a game-changer in the subcontinent.

The Avangard does mach 27. Are you seriously expecting me to believe that you will get such speeds from just 1000Km away?

I'd still love to see what Pak has in store. Again, there's no point applying China or US or Russia for Pakistan. Pakistan's industry has to come up with MaRVs. Whatever the case, it's going to have to exceed mach 18.

The concept is stupid and dumb. The RVs heat in excess of 5000 degrees Celsius. Besides, the atmospheric distortion is too much for the laser to be effective. I told you to read up on the structure and composition of the RV, but noooo. There is a reason that neither of the G-5 have considered it as a feasible option.

Current technology is not feasible for it. Solid state lasers have not even reached 100KW yet. Whereas you need dozens of MW for BMD in order to get both range and intensity just for boost phase interception. So all of this is far into the future. Just getting boost phase interception by 2025-30 will be a big deal.

RVs on ICBMs heat up to 10000 deg C, but lasers can still structurally damage it. A warhead still undergoes pyrolysis upon reentry. The tech for it doesn't exist today, that's the only difference.

But boost phase lasers will still severely degrade Pakistan's BMs.

Pakistan forcing India to spend more (more than an order of magnitude) on conventional weapons and missile defenses, while keeping the strategic balance with weapons developed at a fraction of a fraction of its military budget...sounds quite okay to me. Not sure about Indians though.

Sure. We are spending on missile defences and conventional forces while also keeping China in mind, not just Pakistan.

Anyway, we have completely digressed from your original point. You said we are building new shelters, getting BMD and Brahmos for counterforce. The new shelters plan was always there. Brahmos and most other tactical weapons are currently unavailable for counterforce strikes. And BMD is still many years away. So there's really nothing to worry about in the short term at least. And since you say Pakistan has the ability to defeat any kind of BMD, then there's even less to worry about.

 

[The Deterrent]

The development of Nasr and the deployment of nukes on Nasr are two different things. Nasr can be used as conventional artillery as well. The fact that Nasr with nukes has not yet been deployed is proof of that.

In case you didn't notice, Army Strategic Forces Command has exercised Nasr launches during the past few days. Is there any more proof needed of active deployment? Or were you expecting a demonstration with a real warhead as 'proof'?

I doubt we will ever use tactical nukes. And as long as you allow us to get the first hit in, that's good enough for us. Our primary targets will be military in nature anyway.

There's no point applying experiences of the US and Russia in the India-Pak context. They have far too many nukes.

Again, your personal beliefs don't really apply here.

The Avangard does mach 27. Are you seriously expecting me to believe that you will get such speeds from just 1000Km away?

I'd still love to see what Pak has in store. Again, there's no point applying China or US or Russia for Pakistan. Pakistan's industry has to come up with MaRVs. Whatever the case, it's going to have to exceed mach 18.

I just gave an example for a non-air-breathing hypersonic MaRV. Also, speed is not as relevant as maneuverability. Normal RVs also hit the atmosphere at very high Mach numbers, its their predictability that works against them.

Pakistan's ''industry'' will continue to surprise you.

Current technology is not feasible for it. Solid state lasers have not even reached 100KW yet. Whereas you need dozens of MW for BMD in order to get both range and intensity just for boost phase interception. So all of this is far into the future. Just getting boost phase interception by 2025-30 will be a big deal.

RVs on ICBMs heat up to 10000 deg C, but lasers can still structurally damage it. A warhead still undergoes pyrolysis upon reentry. The tech for it doesn't exist today, that's the only difference.

But boost phase lasers will still severely degrade Pakistan's BMs.

Pffft, It has been 2 decades since the ''Phase-I'' development began, and still there are no signs of deployment. India probably won't get any boost-phase interception capable lasers until 2050s.

Betting your hopes on tech which doesn't exists today...is exactly what I meant by catching on straws, earlier. Stop arguing for the sake of argument.

Sure. We are spending on missile defences and conventional forces while also keeping China in mind, not just Pakistan.

Anyway, we have completely digressed from your original point. You said we are building new shelters, getting BMD and Brahmos for counterforce. The new shelters plan was always there. Brahmos and most other tactical weapons are currently unavailable for counterforce strikes. And BMD is still many years away. So there's really nothing to worry about in the short term at least. And since you say Pakistan has the ability to defeat any kind of BMD, then there's even less to worry about.

Suuuuuurrrreee.

As I mentioned earlier, you don't build rapid-launch capable facilities all of a sudden unless there is a massive inventory increase or a change in doctrine. By introducing CF elements, India will force Pakistan to increase survivability and launch readiness, hence lowering the thresholds. By introducing BMD, India will force Pakistan to increase the numbers and develop evasive counter-measures. All of this will destabilize the region, THAT is my worry, even if India does not achieve said capabilities.

 

[HariSinghNalwa]

Pakistan forcing India to spend more (more than an order of magnitude) on conventional weapons and missile defenses, while keeping the strategic balance with weapons developed at a fraction of a fraction of its military budget...sounds quite okay to me. Not sure about Indians though.

Yes it is Pakistan forcing India ,after development of Nasr ,India was forced BMD after the raad cruise missile from pontoons ,India was forced to develop a nuclear submarine with SLBMs ,after the Chinese armed drones India was forced to get S400 , Pakistan really is very proactive

 

[The Deterrent]

Yes it is Pakistan forcing India ,after development of Nasr ,India was forced BMD after the raad cruise missile from pontoons ,India was forced to develop a nuclear submarine with SLBMs ,after the Chinese armed drones India was forced to get S400 , Pakistan really is very proactive

Read up on why India decided to develop a BMD in the 90s. Maybe @Joe Shearer @Vibrio can school you.

 

[HariSinghNalwa]

Read up on why India decided to develop a BMD in the 90s. Maybe @Joe Shearer @Vibrio can school you.

I didn't said nothing wrong , I didn't contradict you ,why are you agitated ,I said Pakistan is a step ahead of India ,is it wrong ?

 

[Joe Shearer]

Read up on why India decided to develop a BMD in the 90s. Maybe @Joe Shearer @Vibrio can school you.

I would recommend either or both of @Vibrio or @jbgt90 for this; they are more knowledgeable. Unfortunately, neither may be available for a few days, except for scanning and keeping up to date using their mobile phones.

I didn't said nothing wrong , I didn't contradict you ,why are you agitated ,I said Pakistan is a step ahead of India ,is it wrong ?

Calm down, he didn't say anything aggressive, he was just being dismissive; maybe that's good, maybe that stings, but it isn't agitated, it isn't offensive. Also remember that he is one of the most clued-in TTAs; I've had to swallow hard and step back and gather my thoughts when replying his posts. Worth a good think and a quick read-up, if you like.

 

[randomradio]

In case you didn't notice, Army Strategic Forces Command has exercised Nasr launches during the past few days. Is there any more proof needed of active deployment? Or were you expecting a demonstration with a real warhead as 'proof'?

The real litmus test is when the system is actually deployed.

And it's a pointless capability anyway. You will need hundreds of nukes to stop all the IBGs. Even you've admitted it in earlier posts.

Again, your personal beliefs don't really apply here.

It's not a personal belief. It's obvious we will attack military targets first.

Pakistan's ''industry'' will continue to surprise you.

The same as Nasr, have to see it to believe it.

Pffft, It has been 2 decades since the ''Phase-I'' development began, and still there are no signs of deployment.

Construction at three sites has already started. Even the AAD TEL has come into the public domain. They are already preparing for limited induction. Rumours said the AAD will be inducted this year.

http://delhidefencereview.com/2017/...ptor-heads-toward-induction-with-latest-test/
Discussions at the highest levels of government are currently underway to finalize a plan for pushing this system into limited series production with induction and deployment related issues being examined.

India probably won't get any boost-phase interception capable lasers until 2050s.

Depends on what type of laser. Solid state will take long, but we have already achieved 20KW with COIL, 100KW with GDL. Now it's a question of scaling up.

Our DEW development has been successful enough that the IA wants lasers on both the FICV and FRCV.

As I mentioned earlier, you don't build rapid-launch capable facilities all of a sudden unless there is a massive inventory increase or a change in doctrine. By introducing CF elements, India will force Pakistan to increase survivability and launch readiness, hence lowering the thresholds.

Isn't it obvious we will create CF elements? The same with BMD.

We are obviously going to do everything we can in order to get and then maintain an advantage over Pakistan and China. If Pakistan is uncomfortable with this, then it's your problem, not ours.

It's obvious that the more your red lines shift, so will ours, which includes withdrawal from the NFU.

By introducing BMD, India will force Pakistan to increase the numbers and develop evasive counter-measures. All of this will destabilize the region, THAT is my worry, even if India does not achieve said capabilities.

I don't get it. It works in your favour when you have already decided that the Indian BMD will fail. So all we are doing is wasting money on it, money that is better spent elsewhere and which can become a greater threat than the BMD.

Overall, you have pointed out that we have shelters. Okay. But Pak obviously has more.
Then you said that we will use Brahmos for CF, but you also said it's impossible to defang Pakistan even with help from other countries.
Then you pointed out about BMD being a destabilising factor, but also said that it doesn't work anyway.

In conclusion, based on your views, there's nothing destabilising about what's happening. Pakistan's nuclear capability remains intact no matter what India tries.

Considering the above, IMHO, the only real destabilising factor from India's side would be a change in the political will to actually use nuclear weapons in order to achieve military objectives. So even we can end up developing and deploying tactical nukes.

 

[CriticalThought]

Read up on why India decided to develop a BMD in the 90s. Maybe @Joe Shearer @Vibrio can school you.

Can Nasr act as the base platform for a range of low level, short range threats? Could it be modified for A2G applications? Or even surface to air?

 

[The Deterrent]

And it's a pointless capability anyway. You will need hundreds of nukes to stop all the IBGs. Even you've admitted it in earlier posts.

Did you also read the part where I mentioned its intended use? Or did that pass over your head?

The same as Nasr, have to see it to believe it.

Right, I'll forward your request to ISPR. I'm sure they can showcase the physics package next week.

Construction at three sites has already started. Even the AAD TEL has come into the public domain. They are already preparing for limited induction. Rumours said the AAD will be inducted this year.

http://delhidefencereview.com/2017/...ptor-heads-toward-induction-with-latest-test/
Discussions at the highest levels of government are currently underway to finalize a plan for pushing this system into limited series production with induction and deployment related issues being examined.

Deployment is done AFTER production, induction and training.

I don't get it. It works in your favour when you have already decided that the Indian BMD will fail. So all we are doing is wasting money on it, money that is better spent elsewhere and which can become a greater threat than the BMD.

Overall, you have pointed out that we have shelters. Okay. But Pak obviously has more.
Then you said that we will use Brahmos for CF, but you also said it's impossible to defang Pakistan even with help from other countries.
Then you pointed out about BMD being a destabilising factor, but also said that it doesn't work anyway.

In conclusion, based on your views, there's nothing destabilising about what's happening. Pakistan's nuclear capability remains intact no matter what India tries.

Considering the above, IMHO, the only real destabilising factor from India's side would be a change in the political will to actually use nuclear weapons in order to achieve military objectives. So even we can end up developing and deploying tactical nukes.

I seem to be wasting my time here. I guess I should dumb it down for you.

1. India attempts at BMD => Pakistan increases nooks considering worst-case => More people die. BAD!
2. India strengthens CF elements => Pakistan increases mobility considering worst-case => Low threshold. BAD!
3. India deploys Tactical nooks => Proportional exchange of nooks => Escalation can be contained. GOOD!

Can Nasr act as the base platform for a range of low level, short range threats? Could it be modified for A2G applications? Or even surface to air?

A2G possible given weight is not an issue, but why do it when CM-400AKG is available.
Can't say for SAM application, probably not since high-G turns not possible. Also motor is not a sustainer, will burn out too quickly.

 

[Ultima Thule]

Deployment is done AFTER production, induction and training.

I seem to be wasting my time here. I guess I should dumb it down for you.

1. India attempts at BMD => Pakistan increases nooks considering worst-case => More people die. BAD!
2. India strengthens CF elements => Pakistan increases mobility considering worst-case => Low threshold. BAD!
3. India deploys Tactical nooks => Proportional exchange of nooks => Escalation can be contained. GOOD!

sir you should ignore @randomradio who said Indian RAFALE is Better than all 5th gen jets @The Deterrent

 

[randomradio]

Did you also read the part where I mentioned its intended use? Or did that pass over your head?

Right, I'll forward your request to ISPR. I'm sure they can showcase the physics package next week.

No need to be rude. Let's see when the Nasr is actually deployed.

I am not saying you will or will not deploy it. Just saying let's wait until it's actually deployed, then we will know what India will do about it.

We have professionals on both sides who can confirm. And I'm sure ISPR will let us know anyway.

Deployment is done AFTER production, induction and training.

What phase of the deployment cycle do you think AAD must be in then?

Remember, they have already put the AAD TEL in the public domain.

1. India attempts at BMD => Pakistan increases nooks considering worst-case => More people die. BAD!

You are still stuck with your own PoV. That's not what we believe. There's a whole 'nother way you can look at it.

India attempts at BMD. >> Pakistan increases nooks considering worst-case => India's BMD works satisfactorily regardless of the number of Pak nukes. Good.

2. India strengthens CF elements => Pakistan increases mobility considering worst-case => Low threshold. BAD!

India strengthens CF elements => Pakistan increases mobility considering worst-case => Regardless India successfully defangs Pakistan to a large extent. Good.

3. India deploys Tactical nooks => Proportional exchange of nooks => Escalation can be contained. GOOD!

Using the logic from Nasr:
India deploys Tactical nooks => Pak conventional forces decimated. Good.

Considering India's current plans, I don't think the upper echelons are overly concerned by Pakistan increasing its arsenal, deploying evasive countermeasures or making it far more mobile since they are not going to stop the BMD program or avoid getting a proper CF capability in place, including cooperation with other friendly countries.

The status quo has been for many decades now, which may work in Pak's favour, but not in India's. So you are obviously looking at a major change in the status quo from here on. BMD, multi-tier integrated air defence, CF capabilities, SSBN, these are only the beginning. The only difference is you believe the conditions are destabilising. But from our POV, we are making ourselves more resilient and safer, nothing else.

Think about it this way. If Pakistan is completely checkmated to the point where Pak's nuclear arsenal becomes largely useless because of India's BMD and CF capabilities, then Pak will come to the negotiation table in India's favour and hence the region will become much more stable, since India has no plans of being a nuclear aggressor, unlike Pakistan.

 

[The Deterrent]

You are still stuck with your own PoV. That's not what we believe. There's a whole 'nother way you can look at it.

India attempts at BMD. >> Pakistan increases nooks considering worst-case => India's BMD works satisfactorily regardless of the number of Pak nukes. Good.



India strengthens CF elements => Pakistan increases mobility considering worst-case => Regardless India successfully defangs Pakistan to a large extent. Good.



Using the logic from Nasr:
India deploys Tactical nooks => Pak conventional forces decimated. Good.

Considering India's current plans, I don't think the upper echelons are overly concerned by Pakistan increasing its arsenal, deploying evasive countermeasures or making it far more mobile since they are not going to stop the BMD program or avoid getting a proper CF capability in place, including cooperation with other friendly countries.

The status quo has been for many decades now, which may work in Pak's favour, but not in India's. So you are obviously looking at a major change in the status quo from here on. BMD, multi-tier integrated air defence, CF capabilities, SSBN, these are only the beginning. The only difference is you believe the conditions are destabilising. But from our POV, we are making ourselves more resilient and safer, nothing else.

Think about it this way. If Pakistan is completely checkmated to the point where Pak's nuclear arsenal becomes largely useless because of India's BMD and CF capabilities, then Pak will come to the negotiation table in India's favour and hence the region will become much more stable, since India has no plans of being a nuclear aggressor, unlike Pakistan.

I was indeed wasting my time. I wish I could join your delusional world where everything was hunky-dory and we could shoot lasers at space shuttles, but alas, I live in reality. Have a nice one.

 

[randomradio]

I was indeed wasting my time. I wish I could join your delusional world where everything was hunky-dory and we could shoot lasers at space shuttles, but alas, I live in reality. Have a nice one.

We merely have differing opinions. You believe BMD is useless, I do not.

Cheers.

 

[Hellfire]

I would recommend either or both of @Vibrio or @jbgt90 for this; they are more knowledgeable.

No comments!
@randomradio DEWs are in theoretical/testing realm as of this moment and I believe in the coming few years, so, for ABM are a no go so far.

 

[randomradio]

No comments!
@randomradio DEWs are in theoretical/testing realm as of this moment and I believe in the coming few years, so, for ABM are a no go so far.

Most definitely. I put 2025-30 as the period for testing a boost phase laser. But the Israelis cannot be discounted.