russian banks collapse

[jhungary]

Nothing much too dramatic will happen,russian economy will ofc take a beating for some time..but they will struggle and go on and eventually recover like they always do.It will take years but russia is self sufficient in raw materials,which is the basis of every economy so fundamentals are intact.They will just have to reduce the grand living style the oligarchs were used to a bit.
Worst case scenario however is if russian economy does reach a brink,putin sees that there is no longer any difference between current collapse and any further sanction west may impose,then west loses escalating power.In that case putin may feel he has nothing to lose or fear anymore and simply send in the russian army to smash all of ukraine and annex the country.That will be a massive slap for usa-european alliance.He has alreday said he can take kiev in a week or 2 if he wants to.
Both sides here need to not push each other too hard and take things low and easy.

Said this here and some other threads

The objective of the sanction by the West is Not to bring down Russia, Sanction can only bring down a regime if there are somebody on the inside otherwise people can and did lived on without money. Putin's origin Leningrad is a very good example that even a city cannot and will not submit to a siege for even 800 days.

The purpose of the Sanction is to take away one important factor Russia is accused to be providing with the rebel. Money. Well, not money exactly, what money could buy are in the end wide up in the rebel's hand.

Everything cost in war, from the price of the bullet, to the loading vest he is wearing and to tank, anti-aircraft, fuel, ammunition, artillery, food and so on, and everything have a price tag behind it. So, if you take out the money factor, you take out all the item i mentioned above.

Thing is, men can fight for 30 days without food, they can fight 5 to 7 days without water, but you won't last 3 second if you don't have bullet. Bullet is cheap, year about 15cents a piece, but when you account for like 1 million bullet a day, it is not going to be that cheap now. Then you have a bigger price tag item, like a T-72 cost 3-4 millions. Buk launcher cost another 4 millions, artillery piece cost about 1 million each and each shell cost about a thousand dollar, so take out the money Russia can earn, you take out the item they can send to the rebel.

Many people, to some extent, member here asked, why the west did not do more. The answer is, what do you want the west to do? Response can only be sanction, then one up is support of war effort, both unofficially and officially and then one up is a limited war with Russia. And in the end the west would not risk a war with Russia over Ukraine, but on the other hand, Russia would also not willing to risk a war with the west by escalating the conflict. Hence even with US/Western Sanction hitting Russia, they still protest their innocent. Sanctioning Russia is the best course of action they can do, at one side it weaken the rebel, on the other side, it will let Ukraine recuperate. Everyday the situation remain status quo is a day the balance moving toward Ukraine, as they can now consolidate their position and thinking of offensive operation. But with each passing day, Russian support is starting to dwindle, simply, they don't have money to support the war, and Money is the only thing they can give at this point. Hitting with low petrol dollar is just an coincident.

But looking back to the past event in last month, we can already figure out Russian support is running dry at this moment. First you see Russia going back to signing gas deal with Ukraine and now the rebel is coming back to the negotiation table citing social welfare payment, both of which is an indicator on how Russia Support diminished. Couple with the fact the front line did not move at all. WE can clearly see the situation is swing away from the rebel/Russian way.

 

[MarkusS]

I know that we win over Ukraine but i dont see it that positive. Maybe another approach would have been better. We have interests in ukraine and so does russia. Maybe it would have been better to talk about this before all this. I have no doubt that the ukraine crsis will be solved in our interest but at what cost. What if we need russian help in future projects for example? Alot of mistrust now on both sides.

 

[xenon54 out]

With all the talk about Russia blowing up Europe did you guys forget why Puting was furious about this?

Russia has nothing in its hands against Europe except Gas which they are dependent on its export more than ever, even if Putin decides to shut the gas for Europe there are other alternatives, i dont think Europe is stupid enough to be dependant on Russia, its just the cheapest source at the moment.

 

[PakGuns]

What happenes when you piss off bear? I don´t know about your country, but here we shot them and make them a trophy.

I always thought that the russian bear is a terrible symbol. Bears are weak and almost extint.

Poor bear.. how proudly are you displaying this beautiful creature to indicate Russia in it ? How low can you go?

 

[mike2000]

This is how Soviets collapsed when nobody expected it. I don't think Putin would allow Russian federation to disintegrate too.

Lool bro, its not like he has a choice. Of course no country leader will want their country to disintegrate, when it does happens, it happens not because they want, but because of economic conditions that's out of their control. All empires collapse niy because their leaders wanted bro. so Russia won't be any different. Let's just wait and watch Putin's Russia handle this sanctions/decline.

 

[he-man]

Lool bro, its not like he has a choice. Of course no country leader will want their country to disintegrate, when it does happens, it happens not because they want, but because of economic conditions that's out of their control. All empires collapse niy because their leaders wanted bro. so Russia won't be any different. Let's just wait and watch Putin's Russia handle this sanctions/decline.

Oye,watch that movie.

On topic----russia needs to en corporate english language in syllabus for long term betterment and +ve immigration,talent its economy needs.

Without that,,there is not much hope with such low population and such huge area,,not to mention confrontation with west.

 

[Hakan]

Whats funny is that rt is talking about banker bailouts in the west all the time on its economic shows and now russia is the one bailing out the banks.

They also used to have something where one of the reporters would invest in russian stocks and they would show how much money he made. I havn't seen that show on t.v in a while.

 

[MarkusS]

Whats funny is that rt is talking about banker bailouts in the west all the time on its economic shows and now russia is the one bailing out the banks.

They also used to have something where one of the reporters would invest in russian stocks and they would show how much money he made. I havn't seen that show on t.v in a while.

They have same face like Mr Toast on your avatar now

 

[kamrananvaar]

In that case we can simply send weapons and tech to Ukraine and give them a 2nd afghanistan

U had enough of afghanistan. No other country could emulate afghanistan but they just might throw in the towel like usa and nato combined is running away

 

[atatwolf]

Lool bro, its not like he has a choice. Of course no country leader will want their country to disintegrate, when it does happens, it happens not because they want, but because of economic conditions that's out of their control. All empires collapse niy because their leaders wanted bro. so Russia won't be any different. Let's just wait and watch Putin's Russia handle this sanctions/decline.

Dude, calm down, I'm on your side

 

[AUSTERLITZ]

I know that we win over Ukraine but i dont see it that positive. Maybe another approach would have been better. We have interests in ukraine and so does russia. Maybe it would have been better to talk about this before all this. I have no doubt that the ukraine crsis will be solved in our interest but at what cost. What if we need russian help in future projects for example? Alot of mistrust now on both sides.

In larger geopolitical sense ukraine isn't all-important.The countries that benefit most from this conflict are USA and china.Each will see its interests promoted by this.Now from around 1700-1945 around 250 years europe dominated the world.After ww2 she was replaced by america and reduced to secondary supportive role.Now with the european union,europe again can assume a primary power role because if(big if) the european politicians can actually mobilize the entire strength of the bloc,its power would be greater than both china and usa.However europe has couple of limitations- It is highly industrialized continent..but u need 2 things to get that to work -energy/raw materials to run the plants and markets to sell the produced goods.Now in terms of raw materials what europe most lacks is gas/oil and rare earth metals.
China monopolizes rare earth metals atm more or less.But europe could get easy gas/oil from russia .If the russian supply is disrupted ,then usa benefits most.Its shale companies will take over the gas supply making EU dependant on them and also the oil source for EU will have to be gulf which is also defacto controlled by usa.
In terms of markets china is the biggest one for europe.So russian -european friction creates more european dependancy economy wise upon china and more importantly usa.On top of it ,it weakens russia which is one of usa's potential geopolitical competitors.It aids china indirectly in that she can now more or less dictate prices to russia who has no alternative.Winners are usa and china.Losers europe and russia-economically.

Politically this actually forces a shift in alignment of russia from western bloc to the rising chinese power in asia,which is a massive boost for china.The one thing china lacks is oil/gas.For this it is dependant on gulf which is usa controlled.In russia it gets a safe rote which can't be disrupted by USN.Also in 1971 west purposedly went to great lengths to destroy the communist alliance between china and ussr which worked diverting soviet assets.Now policy is inadvertently reversed and again these nations are coming close.Due to the natural resources,size and population of the 2 aligned,they will always be a serious power.Even if russia takes years to recover from current sanctions,it will eventually recover because like i said..it has all the raw materials.In the short term the effects are brutal to the russian economy..this because after collapse of USSR russian economy stopped being a closed economy and integrated itself with global economy and world banks(which is why sanctions can hurt its banks so much now).Sure sanctions can shatter its banks in the short term,but in the long term what happens is that they slowly recover this time without any dependance on western banks or any connections to them..like in soviet times when sanctions were futile because economy was not connected or dependant on western ties.Only difference this time the closed economy will be fully supported by chinese economy which will probably be the biggest in size at least in time plus BRICS nations.On top the russian market and economic slice will be lost to western banks,the greater the sanctions the quicker.In the short term they will ofc take a bad drubbing -might even cause putin's fall.But eventually its bad for europe and also russia.(closed economy will work ofc,but less prosperous than an economy integrated with rest of europe as well as china/brics and not just latter)

Luckily china's erratic behaviour in asia has alarmed its neighbours.Were it not so,If say japan went over to china and china patched up with india..with russia to its north allied and both india to its south and japan to its east no longer entertaining any attempts at encircling it -basically if china can accomplish that it wins in asia.Then it can look beyond its borders and into the global scene.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

China hasn't even more nuclear weapons than France.

Some people are too native to believe that China has fewer nukes than France.

We have by far more ICBMs than France, and do you think we have a smaller nuclear stockpile than yours?

Here is your M51, which has failed during the test in the last year. Since then, you haven't even sorted out the problems.

A nuclear power isn't defined as a country possessing land based ICBMs,but by the number of nuclear weapons.
If you have ICBMs on land or sea,that's the same thing,our submarines can launch ICBMs at any location on earth... so what ?
Sure,China is a nuclear power,but not a nuclear superpower like Russia or USA.

lol, even speaking about the SLBM, China is still better than France.

JL-2 is comparable to Trident II and it is operational right now, and speaking about that poorly designed M51? lol

When we manage to navalize DF-41 into JL-3, then this monster is even going to be bigger than Trident II.

BTW, let's switch back to the Russian banks topic.

 

[aliaselin]

With all the talk about Russia blowing up Europe did you guys forget why Puting was furious about this?

Russia has nothing in its hands against Europe except Gas which they are dependent on its export more than ever, even if Putin decides to shut the gas for Europe there are other alternatives, i dont think Europe is stupid enough to be dependant on Russia, its just the cheapest source at the moment.

Is this picture drawn by a kid from kindergarten? Where are Russian SSBN?

 

[xenon54 out]

Is this picture drawn by a kid from kindergarten? Where are Russian SSBN?

Why kindergarten? Its about the missile defence of NATO not Russian nuclear submarines.

 

[srshkmr]

Your country is not China.

I've never seen a member here act less Chinese than you, from your superpower delusions you are more likely of Indian descent.

He trolls Indian members and India And My bet is he is Not Indian ..
SuperBoy is from mars