Russia Wagner Mutiny | Updates & Discussions

[reflecthofgeismar]

 

[Broccoli]

Wagner supposedly shot down Russian fighter jet.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1672527023871279105

 

[forcetrip]

Prigozhin wouldn't be talking like this without allies in the Kremlin. He's determined to see the back of Putin and may well succeed.

That is true to a point. It is a big step. And you might be right. The commander or general who got Mariupol was fired and Prigozhin hired him into Wagner. There could be a lot of these cases but overall we do not see the uprising that some people are salivating about. Again I could be wrong and it will get a lot clearer in a few weeks.

 

[jhungary]

1) Putin was very patient with Prig for the past 3 months. Bakmuth got to him because he was right. Shoigun is extremely incompetant, could be corrupt but I have proof of his incompetance not his corruption. Prig was targetting Shoigun the most. I feel he just wanted more attention from Putin. Taking out the new contract basically means now the world has entered a new phase. You can openly declare your militias without reprucssions. France, US and now Russia. This was a change which Prig wasnt ready for and I guess it had something to do with the events that are happening.

I would said it is the otherwise. I would say Prigozhin is the one that had been patient

First of all, you need to go back to when is the last time Russian Military have made progress in Ukraine? Well, certainly not Bakhmut, it was these Wagner, and going back to last July, it was Kadyrov who took Severodonetsk, then it was the Wagner who took Lysychansk, it was the Chechen who took Mariupol 2 months prior to Sievierodonetsk. The last time Russian military have any success is back in March 2022, when they took Kherson City, which since been reversed.

Make no mistake, Russian military is incompetent, that's the issue, and the only progress in this war were made with these fringe group and what is the first thing Russian military did? They try to absorb these fringe group into their rank. And you expect Prigozhin not to be pissed?

The problem is, before today (well, yesterday), you can say Prigozhin is venting his frustration on MOD or Shoigu or whoever, but not Putin (Well, he kinded of hinted it by blaming grandpa the last time, but let's say it wasn't) But this time he go after the reason why Russian troop is in Ukraine, that is a vent directed to the establishment. And who is in charge of the establishment? Was it Shoigu or Putin?

He didn't want Putin attention, he wanted Putin head, or at least his job, or at the very least Putin losing his job. Otherwise he would not go against the establish by doubting the official stance on the war. That's a big NO in Russia.

2) The coup is just a smoke screen and nothing more. It will be over very very soon. maybe in weeks if Prig is smart he will go to jail otherwise he will be killed. Problem is no one in Russia really likes Prigozhin. So yes he will make a scene. He will also try to keep KIA's to a minimum as to not affect his bargaining chances. In the end this drama is being done for one thing and one thing alone. Get Shoigun out. Get someone he likes in. I doubt it will happen with Putins speech now. So his best case would be to stretch this for a week with being holed in a military facility. Russias best option would be to contain him in there for a few weeks and then negotiate. A lot of juggling will be needed. Make Prig a matryr could be bad for Putin.

Again, as my reply to the other guy here (forgot his name) if this is what the intention, I would have done it on the down low. This is as high profile as it comes, in fact, I can't think of a way Prigozhin can kick this off any higher profile than this. I mean this is not a show clause, because Shoigu is there to try to get them and Putin directed FSB to prosecute Prigozhin.

This is not something like "oh I let you go to jail for a few year and let you come back) I don't think there are ways any party can go back, That's just impossible, either that, or Russia want to trick the world into letting people know THEY ARE NOT INCHARGE. Which is what this is, this is a shit show, and nobody in the right mind would want this no matter how much they want to change the military command, replacing Shoigu or Gerasimov or whoever, you would just go relief these people if you are Putin, I mean, it's not like they had not change anyone from the military command. Then why preach into the world and make it as high profile as possible and make you look like an idiot when you can just replace Shoigu or whoever under the table?

That just didn't make any sense.

3) Mercs are not hired in peace times like soldiers. The cost of a merc is limited compared to a volunteer soldier. Conscripts are cheap since they are plucked during war time. so 3m a year for you 6 months of work would be cheaper for activated paid government resources. Its a win win for a "Experienced" asset who has already been pumped full of training that is very expensive by the government during the time they were not slap assing and still taking that time off while being paid. So in money terms I would say Mercs are an extremely good deal compared to a standing army. No one signs up during war for the benefits. You can check US campaigns to hire out of high school have failed that they have done away with having a diploma to become a grunt. But I agree. You can not compare them to a professional army for reasons other than money. We see that in the case here. Also the Wagner soldiers have contracts that are the same as you suggested. They have 2 year terms. The Convict ones had 6 months and then a resigning option.

First of all, I am not talking about hiring blackwater in peacetime either. As I said, they hire a driver in Iraq for 40 grand for 6 months, a normal E-2 (the normal rank for a driver) who did the same job in Iraq were paid $2400 a month, And they are virtually the same experience, I mean you got out as an E-2 and get hired by Blackwater to drive a truck almost immediatrely, they save a plane ticlet that way.

As I said, you don't pay merc for this type of thing, certainly not a formational combat. You hire them to guard the road, or run truck up and down some MSR, that's okay, you get into the thick of combat and you can't get them out anytime you want, and when you were there, you got paid, doing virtually the same thing people are being paid 5 to 7 times less to do. So no, it would not be a good deal to have merc do the same job you do when you can pay 5 or 7 time less for people to do the same thing. those are merc, not super soldier...

And if you have to resort to using Merc to prop up your rank, then you would already have a personnel issue, you can't really just prop up your rank using merc.

4) Putins not going anywhere with this nuisance. Its a hickup and the worst possible move for Ukraine would be to make that counter attack. They will not be moving forces from front lines. They have reserves close to all the hot sites. 2000 men in a base would be okay. The problem would be if they become mobile.

Why this is the worst possible move if Ukraine push now? If anything, If I were the Ukrainian, I would wait for another 1 or 2 days to see if this is a show and I will push everything I go into the line. This is a distraction for the Russian, you don't really know who is in charge, If I were one of these Russian soldiers and I have heard stuff like that, I would think can I trust the Wagner dude next to me if I were in a foxhole with him?

That's what prey on people's mind, you can't expect Russian soldier from the frontline would say "sod it, it's too far from me, war continue as usual" this is not how war being fought, you need to think of how this is going to cloud the command element, where the order is going to issue, who am I taking order from. It's not going to be business as usual until this resolved. And everyday they don't it send a conflicted signal to the people who is in the frontline.

5) Well the war in Ukrain is just begun. It will be continuing till we both are alive in one way or the other. Peace treaties and handshakes are a thing of the past. There was a Minsk agreement before too. No one cared. Problem 2 is not really a problem. Lets see how this unfolds. Depending on the time frame 20k plus will be reintegrated and they will go back to Ukraine under a new banner. Khadarov has his own province. Fanatical army that is well taken care of by him. Yes it is his army and there are things that could change. Lets see if he talks crap then we will discuss him as well.

Are you sure about that? if this is like that then what make Prigozhin went over the line?

This does not happen just today when he got his lid blown off, he won't do this if this is just one thing and one day. This is a lot of things put together and a long time coming. If this affect Prigozhin this way, you think the lower echelon would be shield from any side effect??

LOL, I love how you think "meh, this is not a big deal and it would be business as usual" Again, if this is not a big deal, it wouldn't blown out of proportion like this to begin with.....

 

[Foinikas]

View attachment 935742

That was epic

 

[reflecthofgeismar]

That was epic

Wait...

 

[ReasonableStar75]

According to BBC News just now - Chechens have "vowed" to stand behind Putin and put down the "mutiny"

I said you, it s their chance. Chechens are not that naive like a vast majority of rusian leaders are.

Chechcens does not play jokes, and don t say pathetic things like special operations...

 

[Viet]

According to BBC News just now - Chechens have "vowed" to stand behind Putin and put down the "mutiny"

Chechens? Kadyrov?

They have big mouths.

Until now their participation in the war against Ukraine is making pictures and posting on propaganda TikTok.

Lets see if they can fight in a real war.

 

[gambit]

So when will China step in and help Poutine?

 

[ReasonableStar75]

Chechens? Kadyrov?

They only have big mouths.

Until now their participation in the war against Ukraine is making pictures and posting on propaganda TikTok.

chechens take Mariopoul region with ease.

 

[jhungary]

chechens take Mariopoul region with ease.

wouldn't say taking 84 days with 3000+ casualty is "ease"

 

[ReasonableStar75]

wouldn't say taking 84 days with 3000+ casualty is "ease"

Compare this with a village - Bakhmut.

Chechens defeated in Mariupul region not only ukranians, also international mercenaries.We all know this.

 

[Foinikas]

The leadership has been corrupt and went from one blunder to the other. This had been going on for more than a year. They wouldn't listen to anyone. When someone criticized their strategy or lack of logistics,they would would sack him or arrest him.
And they kept going like this. Losing thousands of men and even more equipment. Putin did a lot of good things for Russia,but also handled a lot of situations badly. In the end,corruption didn't disappear from and technology and industry weren't improved as much as they could have been.

Personally,I was disgusted when I heard the prank call to Pskov's son about getting drafted,where he refused and said he would settle this with other means. After this,they should have at least sent him somewhere to serve. But they didn't. They didn't care that they were exposed as corrupt. The ordinary Russian had to send his son to the front,while the rich ones stayed back and refused to serve. If the leadership believes in this war,then they should send their sons. Just like in old times,when generals and princes would sacrifice all of their sons for the motherland.

But this is a different time. It's not a Tsar and these are not princes.

 

[reflecthofgeismar]

wouldn't say taking 84 days with 3000+ casualty is "ease"

Especially Wagnerites and regular Russian army units were thrown into that city and the defenders (many right wingers with big big cojones and ideological zeal) were short off ammo, medicals, food, fresh water etc.
In a military sense they fought heroically, the Jew in Kiev had a win/win situation, he got rid of many Antisemites + could declare them as heroes (what they are in a military sense).
Without this 84 days holding out the mordor hordes there so long, they could have push on other front(s).

 

[Jango]

It would be awfully interesting to read the declassified documents two decades from now on what actually went behind the scenes.

Such a close confidante rebelling in such times. Although signs were there.