Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments

[jhungary]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1524421596810645504

You need to add Finland to that map...They just announced they are going to join.

 

[mazeto]

@jhungary
Taking your claim to have recently trained Ukrainian s at face value, what is your honest military assessment :
1. The military quality of an average Russian vs average Ukrainian infantry guy( army not militia). Choosing infantry as they are the most numerous arm.
2. Prediction of military end point if Russia wants to just control a swathe of coastal Ukraine till transnistria
3. Entire east Ukraine
Can Russia maintain it, or it becomes a rout later as their military and economy become degraded?

 

[Vergennes]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1524631306210058241

 

[RoadAmerica]

Afghan people kicked the NATO arse by driving them out of their country. Stop chatting sh*t, you Zionist and Palestinian children-killing monster.

I mean he simply made an accurate point

 

[The SC]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1524654504741851136

https://twitter.com/x/status/1524689250654040066

 

[mazeto]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1524670370514673670

Selective morality of EUropeans. They want other nations to sanction Russia but themselves sanctioning only convenience stuff

 

[Paul2]

These type of "We would act only if they have the advantage" is not going to be deterrent enough for Putin or a run of the mill dictator think twice before their next misadventure

Single party states are different from run of the mill dictatorships.

Even most harebrained dictators have some competing interests behind them — people who will vote with their feet, and their money if they go to far.

Russia probably was there 20 years ago, but certainly not now when they have rebuilt the de-facto CPSU successor.

 

[The SC]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1524643334270361601

https://twitter.com/x/status/1524691046063644673

https://twitter.com/x/status/1524678618626072578

 

[Tipu7]

Russian equipment losses are visually confirmed in following link:

Attack On Europe: Documenting Russian Equipment Losses During The Russian Invasion Of Ukraine

www.oryxspioenkop.com

Ukrainian equipment losses are visually confirmed in following link:

Attack On Europe: Documenting Ukrainian Equipment Losses During The Russian Invasion Of Ukraine

www.oryxspioenkop.com

There is another source which documents Russian losses on the whole. It is very graphic so I am not posting it here.

26000 Russian KIA by now.

Russians also provide statistics of Ukrainian losses on the whole but these are not visually or independently confirmed.

You will find useful links in following thread:

The Russia - Ukraine War Repository Thread with Fact-checking considerations

GENERAL COVERAGE OF THE RUSSIA - UKRAINE WAR is in following threads: https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/russia-ukraine-war-news-and-developments.706984/ Status: CLOSED https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/russia-ukraine-war-news-and-developments-part-2.746450/ Status: OPEN - Both threads contain...

defence.pk

This war is relatively bigger in scale and much more intense than Soviet-Afghan War ever was. Tragic on many levels.

I am aware of Oryx which has earned considerable reputation as a OSINT platform.
I just needed official figures at that time for some work.

 

[RescueRanger]

Probably has something to do with 9/11

Read the period of time I am referring to before being a wise guy. Yes

 

[jhungary]

@jhungary
Taking your claim to have recently trained Ukrainian s at face value, what is your honest military assessment :
1. The military quality of an average Russian vs average Ukrainian infantry guy( army not militia). Choosing infantry as they are the most numerous arm.
2. Prediction of military end point if Russia wants to just control a swathe of coastal Ukraine till transnistria
3. Entire east Ukraine
Can Russia maintain it, or it becomes a rout later as their military and economy become degraded?

1.) Not much, if you compare infantry to infantry, equipment wise and training wise, in fact Ukrainian would have home ground advantage, because they know where they can set up ambush, they know the location and they know the people. Russia, as an attacker is inherently in a disadvantage because they are fighting an away war, on a normal Sunday, you will use your intel to make up the different, but as far as OSINT concern, Russia is not doing as good as a job than Ukraine.

2.) There are virtually NO WAY they can do that. There are a small contingent in Transnistria, (1000 or so troop) that cannot be used to flank Odessa on the side, and if they do, it open a way for Moldova to recapture Transnistria, not saying that they will, I am saying they can't move those troop or that *MAY* happened.

Without that, you need a land bridge to support a beachhead for a amphibious assault, which mean the Russian would need to go across Kherson to Mykolaiv and all the way to Odessa in order to relief the Beachhead. Easy to say, Hard to do, especially bulk of the troop in Kherson are actually trying to fight off Ukrainian counter offensive there.

Even if that is doable, you are looking at a city of 1 million people, with sizable defence garrison, and Russia would have been at their end of the line of communication, even if Russia manage to push thru Mykolaiv, this will most likely end up the same result as Kyiv.

3.) Depends on how much ground they captured. There are roughly 96 BTG (Roughly 80,000 -100000 men) in the area fighting 6 to 10 Ukrainian Brigade (roughly 40,000 men), number is quite equal (Bear in mind you need 3 to 1 advantage on the attacker side), as I said the first post I came back, I don't see the frontline is going to move a great deal maybe 5 to 10 km either way. So yes, if the frontline stay it was, Russian can maintain that line. Given the Ukrainian did not up tempo their attack.

On there hand, if Russia are going all the way, and they can go all the way and took the entire Donbas, then the troop Russia have in place will NOT be enough, you would probably need to double to have 2/3 more (so 150 to 200 BTG) because you are talking about another 150km front line and every piece of land within it. There are going to Spreading too thin to cover the entire area.

I wouldn't know if Russia can take that, Russia is making slow progress but Ukraine is obviously working toward Kupiansk. If Ukraine took Kupiansk before Russia break out from Izyum, the entire Russian offensive in Izyum would fold, because that is the major rail hub between Belgorod into Eastern Ukraine, that's where all the store come from. And without Irpin, there are no way Russia can make progress in Eastern Ukraine.

 

[The SC]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1524455435767627777

https://twitter.com/x/status/1524361653843861505

 

[thetutle]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1524564136092475397

Wow, he is getting very desperate, threatening Finland with genocide if they join NATO.

Too bad, no one cares. Finland is joining hehehehhe nothing russia can do.

 

[Enigma_]

Well I must admit watching the propaganda war from both sides has been fascinating.

 

[The SC]

A possible conflict between NATO and Russia could escalate into a nuclear war, which would be a “disastrous scenario for everyone” - Medvedev

https://twitter.com/x/status/1524658353456226304

https://twitter.com/x/status/1524684757724020736