Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments

[KAL-EL]

from the country Internet，We can't give up Russia. Russian friendship is very important to China.

Well of course you can't my friend,, Russia is your b***h now.

 

[gambit]

The big problem i see is, how will Putin react when his army indeed collapses as experts predict? He already lost more face than Cher and i guess in the end his generals need to pull the plug

The scuttlebutt is that Poutine fired 8 generals. We have no second confirmation at this time so we should not place too much value on this. But what if it is true? We are looking at senior army commanders, if not THE army commander, and senior air commanders, if not THE air commander. The FSB head is 'arrested', for what?

Putin places head of the FSB's foreign intelligence under house arrest

Also arrested is Anatoly Bolyukh, Beseda's deputy, according to respected author Andrey Soldatov, who said Putin is 'truly unhappy' with the agency - which he ran before becoming president.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Three weeks into the war and still the army and the air force cannot coordinate their ops. Another rumor is that the VKS is afraid of fratricide, meaning the VKS is afraid of being shot down by the army, so the VKS do not fly unless the pilots feel safe. Coordination between friendly army and air force is called 'airspace deconfliction'.

FM 3-52 Chapter 4

www.globalsecurity.org

Airspace decon is a BASIC capability and skillset. One major factor is that Russian pilots do not fly as often as US/NATO pilots do. Reportedly about 10 hrs/mth. US/NATO pilots doubled or even tripled that. The average training sortie is about 1.5 hr. If you go to the range, it will be 2 to 2.5 hr. At the range is where you learn how to ingress to a ground target, make your delivery, then egress. Along the way, you learn how to coordinate with ground controllers simulating friendly ground forces. So flying 1-2 hrs/week as how the Russian train is not enough. That is just time to takeoff, gain altitude, maybe rendezvous with an air refueler, maybe do a few touch-and-go, then land. This seems to be the bulk of the VKS fighter pilot experience.

Observers are giving the Russian military much leeway, probably too much and that is because of the perception of the Russian military as a competent and capable force, but we are looking at 3 weeks and still the Russians are struggling.

If it is true that Poutine replaced his army and air commanders, that three weeks passed mean the new commanders will have doubled the difficulties since the Ukrainians gained valuable experience fighting against the Russian military. Regardless of how this war turn out, whether Russia withdraw from Ukraine or completely take over, the Russian military will NOT be seen as a peer military to the US/NATO alliance.

 

[maverick1977]

i am of the opinion that blitz will occur and cities will be leveled.. Russia will take over Ukraine by June time frame or so.

 

[kingQamaR]

Excuse me,
Theft?

What are the sanctions then, what about the oversea russians getting their properties stolen?

The airline companies still wished to do business but couldnt thanks to the swift denial.

This isn't theft, this is tit for tat.

Moscow was warned not to invade Ukraine or face sever consequences

He ignored it. And now his corrupt mafia abroad who working for him have had there entire assets frozen to put pressure on Putin to back down

What ever Putin does it’s pointless he can not fly these planes in most parts of the world they will be seized. Guy is an idiot

 

[thetutle]

Military experts say russian logistics are about to collapse within 10 days.

Its hard to believe

 

[Apollon]

i am of the opinion that blitz will occur and cities will be leveled.. Russia will take over Ukraine by June time frame or so.

Blitz with what? Russia is running out of even fuel

Another precious russian supply line went down the drain

 

[gambit]

On a much darker note: they wanted runways for themselves, and that's why they only bombed barracks on airfields

If that is true, in my opinion, that is a fv<ked up idea. It is actually more complex than people think. The army has to be in place to take control of the air base. Bombs would not kill everyone so the army would have to go in and either take POWs or kill everyone. Then the army would have to expand its control over the local region, meaning dozens of miles in all direction to provide 'enemy safe' air operations. Think about it, a single sniper with a 308 at a few hundred meters out can shut down the base. Then air controllers would have to resurrect what was destroyed in order to use the runways, we are looking at runway/taxiway lighting, radars, radio, navigation aids, etc.

So if none of the above were planned, it would be better off to hit everything.

 

[RescueRanger]

Breaking: PM of Poland, Czech and Solvania travelling to Kyiv to meet with .Zelensky.

 

[thetutle]

what if they get shot down?

 

[Kambojaric]

i am of the opinion that blitz will occur and cities will be leveled.. Russia will take over Ukraine by June time frame or so.

That is my fear. Russia is too deeply invested now to back down without shame. It enjoys clear air superiority and if conventional means fail then it will resort to even more brutal means. Ukraine needs to make political and geographic concessions before both sides dig even deeper the messy hole they are in right now.

At the end of the day the Ukrainian political establishment completely miscalculated the level of support they would get from NATO. Why is a question we will find the answers to in the coming years but they have to swallow the bitter pill now and accept that the Russian army will only become more and more brutal. Take Finland as an example. The Finns put up fierce resistance during the winter war and even though they eventually ceeded Ingria and Karelia to the Soviets, they were still able to come out of the conflict with their heads held high. If Ukraine has to make concessions to resolve this fast and save Ukrainian lives and reduce the economic rebuilding cost of the country, then so be it. They can still end this conflict on a relatively good note right now.

 

[srshkmr]

Breaking: PM of Poland, Czech and Solvania travelling to Kyiv to meet with .Zelensky.
View attachment 824228

A shitty move which has a potential to expand the war.

 

[gambit]

I'm baffled at how badly Russia has managed to screw up this invasion. This is for them what the Suez Crisis was for the British. The perception of Russia as a formidable global power will end with this war.

My guess: 50/50 Poutine/Xi.

Cold War 1 was when China was the junior partner. Now we are in CW 2 and now, Russia is the junior partner. Of both countries, Russia have a more urgent military need. For Russia, NATO is the urgent need, but for China, Taiwan can wait. For Russia, it is NATO countries and the US. For China, it is Taiwan and the US. The common denominator: US.

Am an Air Force guy, F-111 Cold War then F-16 Desert Storm, and the more I look at the VKS, the more I am convinced that Poutine and Xi indeed received poor military advice from their generals. Poutine is a spy. Xi is a bureaucrat.

Xi needed to know how would the US respond but this is a political analysis. For Poutine, because NATO is literally next door, the urgent analysis is military. If the US and NATO are provoked, Xi would gain military knowledge of the US at Russia's expense. Their generals overestimated the Russian military. Russia's FSB underestimated the Ukrainian people. The FSB chief is under arrest and rumor has it that Poutine fired 8 generals, which if true most likely contains the army and air commanders. So in my opinion, how did Russia screwed up this invasion rests on both Poutine's and Xi's generals. For Xi, his generals gave him what they think and Xi pretty much ordered Poutine to invade.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

meanwhile on the ground, even foreign veterans are running away and telling people to not throw their lives away because this is what they're seeing.

https://www.reddit.com/r/volunteersForUkraine/comments/tdnmlj

"no air superiority"

"VKS not flying"

"weak, incompetent and easy to beat"

 

[EvoluXon]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1503505488759119874

Putin and Russia continue to hang itseltheftiggest heist

https://twitter.com/x/status/1503505488759119874

Putin and Russia continue to hang itself

Theft????? Actually its west who has just committed biggest heist of century by freezing russia foreign reserve and confiscation of assets & oligarch's wealth

 

[RescueRanger]

what if they get shot down?

Read the message please - your answer is in there!