Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments

[Vergennes]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1499350749645623296

 

[arjunk]

I think that image makes it look like they were operating in Pak airspace, they are not, why they have chosen not to use Pak airspace could be for any number of reasons, they did the same during Afghan Evac, via Doha to Afghanistan and vice versa.

View attachment 820255


Here is one from the Afghan Evac, as you will see they bypass Pakistan go via Iran:
View attachment 820257

Why is Mumbai FIR giant

 

[Hassan Al-Somal]

"Russians were denying reports of invading Ukraine until they did it"

Because the decision was taken at the last moment, until the last moment hope was held out for a possible dialogue; but seeing the blind fanaticism of the European rag dolls, then the last to be convinced within the Russian ruling class accepted the inevitable and took this grave, unpleasant and rational decision to on the one hand end with this counter-attack the war that started in 2014 and on the other hand avoid a much worse war in 5-10 years that could have atrocious consequences.

But it seems the progress of the Russian army has stalled now. What do you think?

 

[dBSPL]

@RescueRanger

(I hate this newspaper but let's face it they have a good sense of humor at times)

 

[beast89]

More Russians captured

https://twitter.com/x/status/1497764210914172931

that's ukrainian men, it was debunked 3 or 4 days ago.

 

[srshkmr]

that's ukrainian men, it was debunked 3 or 4 days ago.

Dont say that, someone will post a image containing Russian troops in Ukrainian uniform and then will claim they got caught

 

[lamdacore]

I wanted to reply here for several days but my personal affairs got in the way. Anyhow, much has happened since when I first wanted to write but still relevant as my understanding is with respect to Putin's strategy.

Right now, there is a massive disinformation campaign against Russia. I for one believe that Russia had to act at some point and this is quite understandable. Putin has been appealing to the US and the rest of Europe to not put him in this situation. Although the West emerged victorious from the cold war, it failed to disband Nato which was no longer needed. But sometimes politics loves to keep such organisation alive for one reason or the other.

With its core purpose dead i.e. to stand up to the Soviet Union, the West needed a reason to keep this going and it was not easy. How do you continue to fight when you are all alone and victorious? The US attempted to re-purpose its role in Afghanistan and we all know how that turned out. Twenty plus years and nothing to show for it. Despite the slogans the West throws, they are for internal consumption only and they are never sincere with them. The will do away with them when it best serves them. This naked hypocrisy is on full display and it is evident that it was pent up and building for this very moment.

Anyhow, Putin did try to befriend Europe and did open up Russia to the West. Credit should be given where it is due. But it was his bad luck or misery that the West just did not want to be Russia's friend. Instead, the West provoked, as they always do, despite Putin's appeal not to do so. Putin persisted and sought ways to resolve these things diplomatically. However, the West just never wanted to settle for a simple diplomatic solution, they were not done to continue stomping on the successor of the Soviet Union...a "I spit on your grave" angle.

So, the US and allies planned, they always wanted to hurt Russia and never wanted to be friends with it. They wanted to break up Russia further because, lets face it, it was still a formidable state with an arsenal that could hurt the US.

The West schemed and planned for this very day and encroached bit by bit trying so that Russia could take the bait. And Russia took it.

Now, you may think that this is an unfortunate situation for Russia but it is not. Having observed Putin, he is one of the world's most talented leaders and delivers when least expected. He planned just as the West did. What we see now is his plan in motion and it is easy to dismiss it as a failure based on the disinformation campaign.

Putin trialled the West response with the annexation of Crimea. This was the watershed moment for Russia. This was the time to call bluff on Nato and its allies. They made a lot of noise and failed. This was a warning to Ukraine to not challenge Russia any further. Since 2014 till 2022 i.e. eight years is what it took for Putin to exhaust all options with the West while preparing new options with the East.

Putin did not take the bait, he has made a calculated move against a move the West played years ago. To the West, Putin has taken the bait and is unleashing its strategy based on that. Unfortunately for the West, this is not the 80s or 90s anymore. The days are gone when the leader "of the free world" would instantaneously command all democracies to fall in line against USSR. Russia, has done well to open up and deal with several democracies, it has crept in and on them and addressed their interests. It has fractured that alliance which is now getting tested.

Russia has played its cards pretty well. It is the one of the largest producers of Oil and Gas. Its major market is Europe. It has integrated with the western system, a ploy to play by their rules to be accepted, to be let in. It knows that severe sanctions can and will be imposed upon it

Lets now see where Russia stands:

1) The war in Ukraine does not end the demand for oil & gas. The price per barrel has shot up and may well go higher. Can the West afford such high oil prices? The US may be delighted but it will not give charity.
2) Cutting Russia off Swift is a double edged sword. Yes, it will affect Russia's interest in Europe but what if this pushes Russia to adopt CIPS instead? This will be a profound change and will give Putin immense leverage and the stick to break Nato.

Now, imagine a scenario:

The West has cut Russia off completely, and thoroughly sanctioned. Russia, stops the flow of Oil & Gas and food production to the West. The price oil per barrel is now $130 and every oil producer is merry except Russia.

Then Russia announces it is selling oil at $80 per barrel via CIPS. What do you think will happen? Germany, Turkey and others will be keen to get their hands on this oil. But they are part of the Western bloc and staunch Nato members. They decide to find a way around the current sanctions and start trading.

Eventually, every Western country finds out and this brings about disunity in Nato's ranks. Clearly, it will be obvious that Russia is not the USSR but a country that is selling cheaper oil. Its all a matter of interests for the western countries at the end of the day. This will effectively shatter Nato.


This is just an example of what is to come. The time and era is gone for Nato. The western sanctions and dominance is near its end. This is going to hasten that. Putin has gambled and placed the bait and the west has happily taken it thinking they are outsmarting Putin. Time will tell who is the ultimate loser.

Emotions are high for the west and common sense is absent. Let the war go on for some more days and weeks, then it will no longer be headlines. Ukraine will slip into the background and the momentum in disinformation will be lost. When the effects of sanctions on Russia are felt back home, many Western countries will break rank and file. That is when Nato will be finished and Putin would have won.

 

[RescueRanger]

@RescueRanger

(I hate this newspaper but let's face it they have a good sense of humor at times)

Lol

I wanted to reply here for several days but my personal affairs got in the way. Anyhow, much has happened since when I first wanted to write but still relevant as my understanding is with respect to Putin's strategy.

Right now, there is a massive disinformation campaign against Russia. I for one believe that Russia had to act at some point and this is quite understandable. Putin has been appealing to the US and the rest of Europe to not put him in this situation. Although the West emerged victorious from the cold war, it failed to disband Nato which was no longer needed. But sometimes politics loves to keep such organisation alive for one reason or the other.

With its core purpose dead i.e. to stand up to the Soviet Union, the West needed a reason to keep this going and it was not easy. How do you continue to fight when you are all alone and victorious? The US attempted to re-purpose its role in Afghanistan and we all know how that turned out. Twenty plus years and nothing to show for it. Despite the slogans the West throws, they are for internal consumption only and they are never sincere with them. The will do away with them when it best serves them. This naked hypocrisy is on full display and it is evident that it was pent up and building for this very moment.

Anyhow, Putin did try to befriend Europe and did open up Russia to the West. Credit should be given where it is due. But it was his bad luck or misery that the West just did not want to be Russia's friend. Instead, the West provoked, as they always do, despite Putin's appeal not to do so. Putin persisted and sought ways to resolve these things diplomatically. However, the West just never wanted to settle for a simple diplomatic solution, they were not done to continue stomping on the successor of the Soviet Union...a "I spit on your grave" angle.

So, the US and allies planned, they always wanted to hurt Russia and never wanted to be friends with it. They wanted to break up Russia further because, lets face it, it was still a formidable state with an arsenal that could hurt the US.

The West schemed and planned for this very day and encroached bit by bit trying so that Russia could take the bait. And Russia took it.

Now, you may think that this is an unfortunate situation for Russia but it is not. Having observed Putin, he is one of the world's most talented leaders and delivers when least expected. He planned just as the West did. What we see now is his plan in motion and it is easy to dismiss it as a failure based on the disinformation campaign.

Putin trialled the West response with the annexation of Crimea. This was the watershed moment for Russia. This was the time to call bluff on Nato and its allies. They made a lot of noise and failed. This was a warning to Ukraine to not challenge Russia any further. Since 2014 till 2022 i.e. eight years is what it took for Putin to exhaust all options with the West while preparing new options with the East.

Putin did not take the bait, he has made a calculated move against a move the West played years ago. To the West, Putin has taken the bait and is unleashing its strategy based on that. Unfortunately for the West, this is not the 80s or 90s anymore. The days are gone when the leader "of the free world" would instantaneously command all democracies to fall in line against USSR. Russia, has done well to open up and deal with several democracies, it has crept in and on them and addressed their interests. It has fractured that alliance which is now getting tested.

Russia has played its cards pretty well. It is the one of the largest producers of Oil and Gas. Its major market is Europe. It has integrated with the western system, a ploy to play by their rules to be accepted, to be let in. It knows that severe sanctions can and will be imposed upon it

Lets now see where Russia stands:

1) The war in Ukraine does not end the demand for oil & gas. The price per barrel has shot up and may well go higher. Can the West afford such high oil prices? The US may be delighted but it will not give charity.
2) Cutting Russia off Swift is a double edged sword. Yes, it will affect Russia's interest in Europe but what if this pushes Russia to adopt CIPS instead? This will be a profound change and will give Putin immense leverage and the stick to break Nato.

Now, imagine a scenario:

The West has cut Russia off completely, and thoroughly sanctioned. Russia, stops the flow of Oil & Gas and food production to the West. The price oil per barrel is now $130 and every oil producer is merry except Russia.

Then Russia announces it is selling oil at $80 per barrel via CIPS. What do you think will happen? Germany, Turkey and others will be keen to get their hands on this oil. But they are part of the Western bloc and staunch Nato members. They decide to find a way around the current sanctions and start trading.

Eventually, every Western country finds out and this brings about disunity in Nato's ranks. Clearly, it will be obvious that Russia is not the USSR but a country that is selling cheaper oil. Its all a matter of interests for the western countries at the end of the day. This will effectively shatter Nato.


This is just an example of what is to come. The time and era is gone for Nato. The western sanctions and dominance is near its end. This is going to hasten that. Putin has gambled and placed the bait and the west has happily taken it thinking they are outsmarting Putin. Time will tell who is the ultimate loser.

Emotions are high for the west and common sense is absent. Let the war go on for some more days and weeks, then it will no longer be headlines. Ukraine will slip into the background and the momentum in disinformation will be lost. When the effects of sanctions on Russia are felt back home, many Western countries will break rank and file. That is when Nato will be finished and Putin would have won.

Thank you for sharing your insight, much obliged.

 

[Iñigo]

"What do you think?"

A first phase has been concluded (in 6 days); Now if the negotiations fail, then I think a second phase will unfortunately begin

 

[RescueRanger]

Why is Mumbai FIR giant

Good sport:

Sometimes, the airspace is further divided vertically into upper and lower regions. India has 4 FIRs - Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata, and Chennai with a sub-region within the Kolkata FIR for Guwahati. Interestingly, Kolkata FIR also includes the air above Bhutan.

There is another division called ADIZ - Air Defence Identification Zone that is enclosed within an FIR and is more guarded by security. In an ADIZ Region, the identification, location, and control of civil aircraft is done by the country for national security. Only 20 countries in the world including India, China, Pakistan and Bangladesh have it.

"What do you think?"

A first phase has been concluded (in 6 days); Now if the negotiations fail, then I think a second phase will unfortunately begin

They are offering Putin an exit strategy because this thing is snowballing pretty fast, despite the optics on twitter.

 

[thetutle]

An invasion into Sweden will be extremely bad for Denmark as majority of Swedes would flee into our country and not Norway because they are not part of EU and don't have the free border movement meaning citizens from Sweden can just settle down in Denmark with their passports and vice versa and Russia pushing into Sweden will bring entire of Sweden onto us and we can't handle that many refugees influx and it would be a disaster. If we shout our borders which we would likely love to do in such scenario we would be kicked out of EU and NATO and reason we can't take so many is because we are a small country we can't take 7-8 million fleeing swedes the whole country would collapse from within..

I also have several family members there in Sweden meaning during an invasion our house will personally be filled with fleeing family members

EU citizens can all settle in Norway, there is no border and they have full settlement rights.

 

[dBSPL]

It seems Russians are using the cheap version of the industrial type electrical panels on the their state of art Kamov Ka-52s.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1499342086499360772

 

[The Eagle]

Watch till end and suggest a caption. I have no words at all. Indians yelling being clueless and that's not new.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1499298691156705282

 

[Messerschmitt]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1499351931847954434

https://twitter.com/x/status/1499352900522463242

https://twitter.com/x/status/1499349053620039681

https://twitter.com/x/status/1499345395335454721

 

[RescueRanger]

It seems Russians are using the cheap version of the industrial type electrical panels on the their state of art Kamov Ka-52s.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1499342086499360772

Good spot, read this thread:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1499164245250002944

and this thread:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1499185800172474371