Invading Taiwan is about a million times harder than what’s happening in Ukraine. You think Russia is having a hard time supplying Ukraine? Try supplying Taiwan
Invading Taiwan is a different issue. Land vs water. China is not looking at this
LAND invasion for a
WATER invasion example.
But China is looking at how the world respond to this war. Neither Poutine nor Xi expected the intense global reaction. Ukraine is being supported on the military and civilian fronts. In essence, warfare at the truly full spectrum level. All this time, we have been hearing on how China will conduct 'full spectrum' warfare with the addition of cyber warfare. But now, China is actually seeing what 'full spectrum' really mean and who can wield it. We got credit card transactions, financial messaging, entertainers locked out, currency attacked, restaurants withdrew, and more. And it looks like China will not be able to rally such non-military allies to see China's justifications to invade Taiwan. The NBA and LeBron James, and John Cena will stay silent on Taiwan, as if what they can say will matter anyway.
The more serious problem is the occupation of Taiwan and this is where Ukraine
WILL be instructive.
Before the war, the world was bombarded with how Ukrainians and Russians are 'brothers', and that most Ukrainians will welcome their Russian 'liberators'. We are seeing the same on how Taiwanese are ethnic Chinese and there will be little to no resistance to a Chinese invasion. That Ukrainians were 'oppressing' ethnic Russians, but Taiwanese are oppressing no one. That there are neo-Nazis in Ukraine, but we have yet to see Taiwanese neo-Nazis which would truly be an odd sight. Ukraine is a sophisticated country with global reach exports of valuable agricultural goods, and Taiwan have global exports of technological goods. So the longer this war go on, the more global sympathy will go to the Ukrainians, which
WILL transfer to Taiwan as well.
Global militaries are watching the war with interests.
So far, the Russian Air Force have been less than impressive, and to be blunt about it, not even mediocre considering the numerical superiority in all airborne platforms. The oft assertion from the forum's Chinese members that the PLAAF and ROCAF are not technological peers and that the ROCAF will be defeated, is diminished if not outright nulled. The PLAAF is wondering if its generals can do better and if its airmen can survive Taiwanese air defense with enough numbers to support the invasion fleet. We are looking at an air force that has combat experience vs one without, and the former is currently underperforming. Maybe the VKS will pull something out and surprise everyone, who knows, but we are willing to consider that possibility.
On the ground, the Russian Army can afford to split its invasion into three fronts, but the PLA do not have that option. The PLAN will be restricted to one landing site and Taiwan is prepared on all possible sites. The PLAN fleet final destination will be known and the Taiwanese will be able to redirect their defense to that site. For the occupation, the PLA will now have to wonder if the US and allies have been talking with the Taiwanese defense on how to fight the occupation using the Ukrainian defenders as example. The recent Russian tank column destroyed by the Ukrainians showed how soldiers can lead civilian defenders to make damages to an armor force, and that civilians can learn how to effectively use MANPADS in a trap.
China is certainly gauging how Asian countries are responding to the Russian-Ukrainian war, and they are putting themselves in Ukraine's position. If Taiwan fall, so can they. If China control the South China Sea, their access to global trade will be under China's pleasure. No promises from China will be seriously taken because Russia broke a written to Ukraine and invaded. So what would happen if the US lead a coalition of Asian navies, from SKR and JPN to southern countries like Viet Nam and Australia, to help Taiwan? What if we allow the invasion? What if the invasion succeeded and came an occupation? Then we cut off the Chinese occupation force from mainland China.
