Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments
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I think we'll take our chances.
Avicenna
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Speak for yourself.
F-22Raptor
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The 21st century has been full of conflict. From Kosovo, to the Horn of Africa, to Afghanistan, to Iraq, to Syria, and now Ukraine the battlefield keeps changing and evolving. Many of you have been following the events in Ukraine extremely closely. To help you make better sense of the situation in Ukraine, I’m going to introduce you to three military terms — Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs), Order of Battle (OoB), and Crowd Sourced Battle Damage Assessments (BDA) — which will help deepen your understanding of the invasion. Along the way, you’ll also get a better grasp of one way that the US Army looks at measuring how the war is going.
Battalion Tactical Group (BTGs)
A Battalion Tactical Group, or BTG, is the primary combined-arms maneuver unit used by the Russian Army. In NATO militaries, this grouping would be called a Task Force. (I wrote an article about Task Forces (corporate people might call this a matrix’ed organization) last year). A typical BTG is comprised of one tank company, three infantry companies, one Anti-Tank (AT) missile company, one engineer company, two field artillery batteries, and one Surface to Air Missile (SAM) Battery. Each BTG has approximately 600 soldiers assigned to it.
BTGs formed the mainstay of Russia's military intervention in Ukraine from 2013–2015 and now in 2022. In other words, the BTGs are the “tip of the spear” for the conventional Russian military. As of August 2021, Russia had approximately 170 BTGs scattered across the country.
The diagram below depicts the organization of a typical BTG.
BTG Sub Units:
To further understand the BTG, let’s look at each subunit in detail. The subunits in a Battalion Tactical Group are BTG’s command and control, one tank company, three infantry companies, one Anti-Tank (AT) missile company, one engineer company, two field artillery batteries, and one Surface to Air Missile (SAM) Battery. A company or a battery is an organization of about 50-100 people.
BTG Command and Control: 3x MT-LB for the BTG commander and his staff.
Total: 3x MT-LBs
One Tank Company — A Russian Tank Company typically has 30 soldiers who man 10x T-72B3 tanks.
Total: 10x T-72B3s (-72, -80, -90)
Three Infantry Companies — A Russian Infantry Company typically has 50 soldiers who work out of 11x BMPs or BTR-80s Armored Personnel Carriers.
Total: 33x BMPs (-1,-2,-3) or BTR-80s
AT Company — A Russian Anti-Tank (AT) Missile Company typically has 4x BMP-3s type-vehicles armed with the AT-11 “Sniper” or AT-14 “Spriggan” Anti-Tank guided missiles (Shturm-S ATGM Carrier).
Total: 4x BMP-3s w/ AT-14s (Shturm-S ATGM Carrier)
One Engineer Company — Engineer Companies can be task organized to support proposed BTG missions. Most Engineer companies have 3x BAT-2 and 2x IMR-2
Total: 3x BAT-2s and 2x IMR-2s
Two Field Artillery Batteries — A Russian Field Artillery Battery typically has 6x 152mm self propelled howitzers (6x 2S19 Msta) and 2x MT-LBu ACRVs (commander and fire direction center). These weapons can fire XX distance. A Russian Multiple Launch Rocket System Battery typically has 6x 122mm BM-21 Grad rocket systems along with support trucks. These weapons can fire XX distance.
Total: 6 x 152 mm 2S19 Msta + 2x MT-LB ACRV + 6x BM-21 122mm MLRS
One Surface to Air Missile (SAM) or Air Defense Artillery (ADA) Battery — A Russian SAM Battery typically has 6x anti-aircraft systems in it. A Pantsir-S1 equipped battery has 6 trucks, each which has 2x 30mm cannons and 12 x 57E6-E Surface to Air Missiles.
Total: 6x Pantsir-S1 + 2x MT-LB ACRV
So, the total vehicles in a Prototypical BTG = 33x BMPs, 10x T-72s, 4x Shturm-S ATGM Carrier, 3x BAT-2s and 2x IMR-2s, 6 x 152 mm 2S19 Msta, 6x BM-21 122mm MLRS, 6x Pantsir-S1, and 7x MT-LB ACRV. There would be approximately 600 soldiers in the BTG.
Order of Battle
The order of battle tries to depict the hierarchical organization, command structure, strength, disposition of personnel, and disposition of equipment of military units participating in a military operation. Corporate types would recognize this as an org chart. For the purpose of this blog post, I’m only going to focus on the Order of Battle/potential disposition of the Russian military equipment involved in the invasion of Ukraine.
The Institute for the Study of War is a Washington, DC based think-tank that has tracked wars for the past two decades. On January 25, 2022, ISW assessed that there were at least 66 BTGs postured around Ukraine.
I’m going to make the assumption that ISW didn’t get their picture exactly right and that Russia moved a few more units into the region to participate in the invasion from January 26 to February 23. If Russia invaded the Ukraine with 75x BTGs, there would be approximately:
Crowd Sourcing Battle Damage Assessment
The invasion of Ukraine began on February 24, 2022. Each day the conflict continues, both Russian and Ukraine forces lose vehicles from combat. These vehicles were destroyed, damaged, abandoned, or captured in battle. Battle Damage Assessment, or BDA, is “the estimate of damage composed of physical and functional damage assessment, as well as target system assessment, resulting from the application of lethal or nonlethal military force.” In the old days, the Battalion or Brigade Intelligence Officer had to collect reports from helicopter pilots, Air Force pilots, forward observers, and ground forces who engaged the enemy. Based on these reports, the Intelligence Officer would make an assessment of how badly the enemy had been damaged from the actions of friendly forces.
Stijn Mitzer, along with Joost Oliemans, Kemal Janovsky, Dan Janovsky, and Jakub Janovsky, have taken this idea into the 21st Century. The five people are attempting to crowd source battle damage assessments in real-time from both the Russian and Ukraine armed forces during the invasion of Ukraine on The Oryx Website. The team finds photos of destroyed, abandoned, and captured vehicles and then tries to count them based on the vehicle type. They also categories them based on the vehicle being destroyed, abandoned, or captured. The team does its best to make sure that they are not counting the same vehicle twice and are updating it daily. Check it our yourself — the link to their regularly updated article is here.
As of March 7, 2022 at 3:00 PM EST the Oryx Website assesses that the Russian forces have lost (the numbers had already changed before I finished writing the post):
Just counting damaged, destroyed, and captured vehicles in Basic BDA. Taking the raw numbers and then assessing the impact on the invasion force is Advanced BDA. Advanced BDA helps military leaders understand the context and make better decisions.
The military uses three categories to measure the impact on enemy units: suppressed, neutralized, or destroyed. As you would expect, each of these terms has a military definition. Suppress is a tactical mission task that results in temporary degradation of the performance of a force or weapons system below the level needed to accomplish its mission. It is the lowest level and typically equates to 3% of a friendly or enemy unit’s equipment being destroyed, damaged, abandoned, or captured. Neutralize is a tactical mission task that results in rendering enemy personnel or materiel incapable of interfering with a particular operation. It is in the middle and usually equates to 10% of a friendly or enemy unit’s equipment being destroyed, damaged, abandoned, or captured. Destroy is a tactical mission task that physically renders an enemy force combat-ineffective until it is reconstituted. It is the highest level and usually equals to 30% of a friendly or enemy unit’s equipment being destroyed, damaged, abandoned, or captured.
Remember the order of battle of the invasion force? I will use the OoB numbers as our denominator, as I try to figure out if the Russians are suppressed (3%), neutralized (10%), or destroyed (30%) as part of the Advanced BDA process. This helps to provide context for the losses reported on the web. Based on the crowd-sourced losses on the Oryx website on March 7, 2022:
Watch the Oryx Website in coming days to see if the Russian tanks, BMP/BTRs, and MT-LBs keep taking losses. For instance, I’m watching very closely to see if the Russians have 85 more tanks destroyed, abandoned, or captured (March 15 if they keep losing 12 tanks per day) as the conflict drags on. At that point in time, their invasion could grind to a halt with almost a third of their estimated tanks out of the fight.
https://www.thefivecoatconsultinggroup.com/the-coronavirus-crisis/perspective-ukraine
Good breakdown of Russian forces and their losses to date
Battalion Tactical Group (BTGs)
A Battalion Tactical Group, or BTG, is the primary combined-arms maneuver unit used by the Russian Army. In NATO militaries, this grouping would be called a Task Force. (I wrote an article about Task Forces (corporate people might call this a matrix’ed organization) last year). A typical BTG is comprised of one tank company, three infantry companies, one Anti-Tank (AT) missile company, one engineer company, two field artillery batteries, and one Surface to Air Missile (SAM) Battery. Each BTG has approximately 600 soldiers assigned to it.
BTGs formed the mainstay of Russia's military intervention in Ukraine from 2013–2015 and now in 2022. In other words, the BTGs are the “tip of the spear” for the conventional Russian military. As of August 2021, Russia had approximately 170 BTGs scattered across the country.
The diagram below depicts the organization of a typical BTG.
BTG Sub Units:
To further understand the BTG, let’s look at each subunit in detail. The subunits in a Battalion Tactical Group are BTG’s command and control, one tank company, three infantry companies, one Anti-Tank (AT) missile company, one engineer company, two field artillery batteries, and one Surface to Air Missile (SAM) Battery. A company or a battery is an organization of about 50-100 people.
BTG Command and Control: 3x MT-LB for the BTG commander and his staff.
Total: 3x MT-LBs
One Tank Company — A Russian Tank Company typically has 30 soldiers who man 10x T-72B3 tanks.
Total: 10x T-72B3s (-72, -80, -90)
Three Infantry Companies — A Russian Infantry Company typically has 50 soldiers who work out of 11x BMPs or BTR-80s Armored Personnel Carriers.
Total: 33x BMPs (-1,-2,-3) or BTR-80s
AT Company — A Russian Anti-Tank (AT) Missile Company typically has 4x BMP-3s type-vehicles armed with the AT-11 “Sniper” or AT-14 “Spriggan” Anti-Tank guided missiles (Shturm-S ATGM Carrier).
Total: 4x BMP-3s w/ AT-14s (Shturm-S ATGM Carrier)
One Engineer Company — Engineer Companies can be task organized to support proposed BTG missions. Most Engineer companies have 3x BAT-2 and 2x IMR-2
Total: 3x BAT-2s and 2x IMR-2s
Two Field Artillery Batteries — A Russian Field Artillery Battery typically has 6x 152mm self propelled howitzers (6x 2S19 Msta) and 2x MT-LBu ACRVs (commander and fire direction center). These weapons can fire XX distance. A Russian Multiple Launch Rocket System Battery typically has 6x 122mm BM-21 Grad rocket systems along with support trucks. These weapons can fire XX distance.
Total: 6 x 152 mm 2S19 Msta + 2x MT-LB ACRV + 6x BM-21 122mm MLRS
One Surface to Air Missile (SAM) or Air Defense Artillery (ADA) Battery — A Russian SAM Battery typically has 6x anti-aircraft systems in it. A Pantsir-S1 equipped battery has 6 trucks, each which has 2x 30mm cannons and 12 x 57E6-E Surface to Air Missiles.
Total: 6x Pantsir-S1 + 2x MT-LB ACRV
So, the total vehicles in a Prototypical BTG = 33x BMPs, 10x T-72s, 4x Shturm-S ATGM Carrier, 3x BAT-2s and 2x IMR-2s, 6 x 152 mm 2S19 Msta, 6x BM-21 122mm MLRS, 6x Pantsir-S1, and 7x MT-LB ACRV. There would be approximately 600 soldiers in the BTG.
Order of Battle
The order of battle tries to depict the hierarchical organization, command structure, strength, disposition of personnel, and disposition of equipment of military units participating in a military operation. Corporate types would recognize this as an org chart. For the purpose of this blog post, I’m only going to focus on the Order of Battle/potential disposition of the Russian military equipment involved in the invasion of Ukraine.
The Institute for the Study of War is a Washington, DC based think-tank that has tracked wars for the past two decades. On January 25, 2022, ISW assessed that there were at least 66 BTGs postured around Ukraine.
I’m going to make the assumption that ISW didn’t get their picture exactly right and that Russia moved a few more units into the region to participate in the invasion from January 26 to February 23. If Russia invaded the Ukraine with 75x BTGs, there would be approximately:
- 750x T-72/80/90 Tanks
- 2,475x BMPs/BTRs (Armored Personnel Carriers),
- 300x Shturm-S ATGM Carriers
- 225x BAT-2s and 150x IMR-2s (Engineer Vehicles)
- 450 x 152 mm 2S19 Msta
- 450x BM-21 122mm MLRS
- 450x Pantsir-S1
- 525x MT-LB ACRV
Crowd Sourcing Battle Damage Assessment
The invasion of Ukraine began on February 24, 2022. Each day the conflict continues, both Russian and Ukraine forces lose vehicles from combat. These vehicles were destroyed, damaged, abandoned, or captured in battle. Battle Damage Assessment, or BDA, is “the estimate of damage composed of physical and functional damage assessment, as well as target system assessment, resulting from the application of lethal or nonlethal military force.” In the old days, the Battalion or Brigade Intelligence Officer had to collect reports from helicopter pilots, Air Force pilots, forward observers, and ground forces who engaged the enemy. Based on these reports, the Intelligence Officer would make an assessment of how badly the enemy had been damaged from the actions of friendly forces.
Stijn Mitzer, along with Joost Oliemans, Kemal Janovsky, Dan Janovsky, and Jakub Janovsky, have taken this idea into the 21st Century. The five people are attempting to crowd source battle damage assessments in real-time from both the Russian and Ukraine armed forces during the invasion of Ukraine on The Oryx Website. The team finds photos of destroyed, abandoned, and captured vehicles and then tries to count them based on the vehicle type. They also categories them based on the vehicle being destroyed, abandoned, or captured. The team does its best to make sure that they are not counting the same vehicle twice and are updating it daily. Check it our yourself — the link to their regularly updated article is here.
As of March 7, 2022 at 3:00 PM EST the Oryx Website assesses that the Russian forces have lost (the numbers had already changed before I finished writing the post):
- 140 Tanks (T-72s, 80s, and 90s — 42 destroyed, 2 damaged, 26 abandoned, and 69 captured)
- 181 Armored Personnel Carriers (BMPs or BTRs — 65 destroyed, 35 abandoned, and 81 captured)
- 2 Shtrum-S ATGM Carriers (1 destroyed and 1 abandoned)
- 36 Engineering Vehicles (including 1x BAT-2, 1x IMR-2)
- 63 Field Artillery pieces (including 9x 2S19 Mstas and 16x 122mm BM-21 Grads)
- 23 SAM Systems (including 4x Pantsir-S1s)
- 63 MT-LB (17 destroyed, 12 abandoned, and 34 captured)
Just counting damaged, destroyed, and captured vehicles in Basic BDA. Taking the raw numbers and then assessing the impact on the invasion force is Advanced BDA. Advanced BDA helps military leaders understand the context and make better decisions.
The military uses three categories to measure the impact on enemy units: suppressed, neutralized, or destroyed. As you would expect, each of these terms has a military definition. Suppress is a tactical mission task that results in temporary degradation of the performance of a force or weapons system below the level needed to accomplish its mission. It is the lowest level and typically equates to 3% of a friendly or enemy unit’s equipment being destroyed, damaged, abandoned, or captured. Neutralize is a tactical mission task that results in rendering enemy personnel or materiel incapable of interfering with a particular operation. It is in the middle and usually equates to 10% of a friendly or enemy unit’s equipment being destroyed, damaged, abandoned, or captured. Destroy is a tactical mission task that physically renders an enemy force combat-ineffective until it is reconstituted. It is the highest level and usually equals to 30% of a friendly or enemy unit’s equipment being destroyed, damaged, abandoned, or captured.
Remember the order of battle of the invasion force? I will use the OoB numbers as our denominator, as I try to figure out if the Russians are suppressed (3%), neutralized (10%), or destroyed (30%) as part of the Advanced BDA process. This helps to provide context for the losses reported on the web. Based on the crowd-sourced losses on the Oryx website on March 7, 2022:
- 140 Losses out of an estimated 750x T-72/80/90s Tanks — 18.6% Losses (Neutralized)
- Average of 12x tanks damaged, destroyed, abandoned and captured per day of the conflict
- 181 Losses out of an estimated 2,475x BMPs/BTRs (Armored Personnel Carriers) — 7.3% Losses (Suppressed)
- Average of 15x BMPs/BTRs damaged, destroyed, abandoned and captured per day of the conflict
- 2 Losses out of an estimated 300x Shturm-S ATGM Carriers — .6% Losses (No impact)
- 26 Losses out of an estimated 225x BAT-2s and 150x IMR-2s (Engineer Vehicles) — 6.9% Losses (Suppressed)
- 63 Losses out of an estimated 450x 152 mm 2S19 Msta and 450x BM-21 122mm MLRS (Field Artillery) — 7% Losses (Suppressed)
- 23 Losses out of an estimated 450x Pantsir-S1 (SAMs) — 5% Losses (Suppressed)
- 63 MT-LB out of an estimated 525x MT-LB ACRV (Command and Control) — 12% Losses (Neutralized)
- Average of 5x MT-LBs damaged, destroyed, abandoned and captured per day of the conflict
Watch the Oryx Website in coming days to see if the Russian tanks, BMP/BTRs, and MT-LBs keep taking losses. For instance, I’m watching very closely to see if the Russians have 85 more tanks destroyed, abandoned, or captured (March 15 if they keep losing 12 tanks per day) as the conflict drags on. At that point in time, their invasion could grind to a halt with almost a third of their estimated tanks out of the fight.
https://www.thefivecoatconsultinggroup.com/the-coronavirus-crisis/perspective-ukraine
Good breakdown of Russian forces and their losses to date
I do. Any I think the whole west agrees with me that Russia must lose here regardless of the consequences. He cant be appeased. If he wins he will keep rolling west and none of us will achieve security by giving him countries to swallow.
F-22Raptor
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Vergennes
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Meanwhile the Russians are facing another enemy that isn't human... but natural. Read about the "rasputitsa". Things are going to get just worse for the russian army. By accepting to delay the invasion due to the olympic games in China at Xi Jinping's demand,Putin has launched the invasion too late... and the invasion isn't going at a fast path as hoped initially.
alimobin memon
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F-22Raptor
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F-22Raptor
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Amazing analysis, but dont Russians have 15,000 tanks. Cant they just replenish the BTG with more tanks and keep going?
Abid123
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We stand with Russia.Forget the Ukraine Russia conflict for a moment. What I have enjoyed most is the hypocritical US/Western outrage against Pakistan for remaining neutral. At times it felt like the Americans and Europeans want to blame Pakistan for the entire fiasco. Just have a look at the insane amount of coverage given to Pakistan:
Pak Official's UK Visit Cancelled Apparently Over Policy On Russia-Ukraine War: Report
The UK government has unilaterally called off the scheduled visit of Pakistan's National Security Adviser Moeed Yusuf to London apparently because of Islamabad's policy towards Russia's military offensive against Ukraine, according to a media reportwww.ndtv.com
Western-Led Pressure Grows on Pakistan to Condemn Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine
Islamabad has avoided criticizing the Russian assault on Ukraine and called on both sides to seek a negotiated settlement to the conflictwww.voanews.com
Pakistan Walks Thin Line Between Russia, Ukraine
Pakistan, a key non-NATO ally of US, abstained from voting on UN General Assembly's condemnation resolution against Russia
Pakistan’s Prime Minister Takes on the West
Imran’s Khan’s tirade against the U.S. comes at a time when he is facing serious political challenges at home.thediplomat.com
'Are we your slaves?' Pakistan PM lashes out against EU
Pakistani PM Imran Khan's comments were in response to foreign pressure pushing Islamabad to criticise Russia's invasion of Ukraine.english.alaraby.co.uk
US warns Pakistan of Ukraine war consequences
FO objects to envoys’ letter issued earlier this week urging Islamabad to denounce Moscow’s actions.www.dawn.com
Pakistan under western pressure to condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine
The NATO, US, UK and the European Union (EU) are taking to global platforms like the UN General Assembly (UNGA) to gather global support in condemning Russia over its aggression in Ukrainewww.business-standard.com
Why was Pakistan’s PM in Russia amid the Ukraine invasion?
Prime Minister Imran Khan had little to gain and much to lose from backing out of his planned visit to Moscow.www.aljazeera.com
Podcast: US choices, global consequences: Hina Khar on India, Pakistan, Afghanistan & broken democracy
Listen: As Russian forces invaded Ukraine, Pakistan's PM Imran Khan, one of Vladimir Putin’s few friends, visited Moscow. But his trip did not go down well in the US. With Washington ready to downgrade its relationship with Islamabad, Khan is looking to form new friendships to protect Pakistan's...www.gzeromedia.com
EU Council president speaks with PM amid hiccup in ties | The Express Tribune
Imran hopes for a diplomatic deal over Ukraine conflicttribune.com.pk
F-22Raptor
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And here we go
The first vehicle that gets hit has 2 people walking towards it a mere 5 or 10 metres away? they seem to survive. Is it normal to survive in such close proximity?
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