jhungary
MILITARY PROFESSIONAL
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1.) No Mobilisation on Convoy mostly because the drone and fighter run out of ammo. IT's a 6 days old war, US/EU only resupplying them 2 days ago, it's not surprise the Ukrainian had run out of bombs and missile.
2.) The Eastern State traditionally is not a strong supporter for the Ukrainian central government, also the difficulty to supply weapon to Eastern province. But despite that, unconfirm info suggest Kharkiv have form a 20,000 TDF,
3.) The south is open woodland, they aren't dense urban area like in the North, and the fact that Southern Urban cities (Mariupol and Odessa) has not yet fall means the progress is largely on the outskirt.
4.) Logistic is going to be a problem in the eastern city, as most of them are close to Russia border, making Russian interdiction easier.
5.) TDF are the reserve, they need to withhold regular troop on the West to hold down the West in order to get supplies in.
6.) Well, consider now 75% of the invasion force are mobilised, it will be hard to do hit and run, it would work in the early stage but not when they started to swing the number at you.
7.) At this point artillery are probably used as COUNTBAT, it would be wise to deploy it closer to Kyiv.
8.) At this point, precision strike are not going to be effective, as they started to mass their troop, in case you have not notice, there is a shift of Russian tactics, now they are more align to old Soviet style Armor Column attack, Precision Strike can be use to target Russian C&C and command structure, but nothing else. And even if they do, the sheer number will still dwarf them
9.) As I said before, now it's the traditional siege, they are going to thrust at Ukrainian defence with overwhelming number of Armor, at this point, you should reposition every available support fire to the rear, and absorb the first strike, then use artillery to mess up the second line.
10.) Don't think this is an Ukrainian C&C problem, this is what we called a static phase, basically Russia is going to come at Ukrainian with everything they got, sure, using support asset take out one or two unit here and there, you can do that, but it would not make any different as you are facing a giant head on assault, Tradition NATO playbook is hunker down, let the Amour rolled thru and then attack the infantry that followed with your unit and artillery support.
11.) I think they are now incapable to act on Intel, again, a combination of trying to preserve force and logistic issue..
12.) It wouldn't do much, as I said before, the Russian tried to disable Ukrainian airfield by launching missile on precision strike, we all know how that goes, and Russian have more advance missile.
13.) Well, as I said before, you can only do so much hit and run. once they are adapted to your strategy, you can't really do that anymore. Now it's way pass that, this is now a siege warfare. You need to be able to absorb damage now, which mean for Ukrainian, every unit counts
14.) That's Russian battleplan tho. The Russian south need to take both Dnipro and Mariupol and another Marine landing over at Odessa
15.) Russia changed their tactics since last night, no doubt, If Ukraine was smart, they should start resupplying the Kyiv. They can lose any city, but they can't lose Kyiv. Now this is going to turn into a siege warfare, which mean support, supply and troop have to be concentrated. I don't think there are anything Ukrainian can do but Hunker down and take the onslaught at this point,
Make no mistake, I still stand by my original assessment. Kyiv WILL fall, it's just the matter of time, this is not even a question, but what happened after Kyiv felt is shaping up, I can foresee a complete insurgency, that would ring headache for Russia,
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Maybe we were not affected as much as Pakistan in the Afghanistan war, but we are among the countries that are most affected in all other wars and war-degree tensions in some way.
